TSV Hartberg1Wolfsberger AC0

HT 0–0Sat 24 Oct 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges5–363%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 24–10On targetOn target 3–3CornersCorners 9–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Oct 2026, 12:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom club Wolfsberger arrive in Hartberg on five straight league defeats with a coach appointed two days earlier, against a Hartberg side whose home games keep producing goals at both ends.

Hartberg are the likelier winners, but 2.05 offers no clear advantage. The one quote with a little on its side is both teams to score – No at 2.4, even though both teams scoring is the likelier single outcome.

Context

Wolfsberger had gone eight league games without a win and sat bottom of the table when the decision landed on the morning of 22 October, which makes the Hartberg game Schmid's first in charge. He inherits a squad he has not coached, alongside assistants new to the group, with a single training day before kickoff at Stadion Hartberg. His earlier spell in the Lavanttal gives him familiarity with the club and its president, though not with the current dressing room. A handover this late can jolt a losing team, but it can equally leave selection, set-piece and pressing plans unsettled, so the visitors' structure is the least predictable part of the fixture.
- Wolfsberger AC appointed Manfred Schmid on 22 October 2026, the same day Thomas Silberberger and his staff were relieved of their duties.
- Silberberger's removal followed a fifth successive league defeat.
- Schmid coached Wolfsberger earlier in his career and returns at the invitation of the club president who appointed him then.
- The dismissal was the club's fourth coaching change within a year.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 12:54 · Europe/Bucharest
Renner was the regular left-sided defender for a team that has conceded three or more goals in four of its last five league games, so his exit thins out the most experienced part of the back line at the moment a new coach is choosing a shape. Because the suspension had already kept him out of the 0-2 home defeat to WSG Tirol, though, the immediate selection change is smaller than the headline: the loss is depth, continuity and experience on that flank rather than a starting place that was certain to be his. His departure is one more variable Schmid has to solve without having worked with the group.
- Wolfsberger AC and Rene Renner agreed a mutual contract termination on 20 October 2026.
- The 32-year-old wingback had been suspended for disciplinary reasons following a dressing-room incident and missed the previous league match.
- Renner had started four of the club's previous five matches before the suspension.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Oct 2026, 12:54 · Europe/Bucharest
That afternoon is the clearest picture of Wolfsberger's away season: plenty of shots going forward, very little of it on target, and a defence that conceded 11 shots on target. Against a Hartberg team that put 12 on target at home last time out, the same trade-off would need better conversion than one goal from 26 attempts.
- 20 September 2026, Bundesliga: Ried 4-1 Wolfsberger AC; Wolfsberger had 26 shots, 5 on target and 9 corners.
- Wolfsberger trailed 0-3 at half-time and faced 20 shots, 11 of them on target.
Twelve shots on target is the highest figure in Hartberg's recent rows, and it came in a game they had to turn around after conceding twice early. The other half is the three goals let in at home, which fits a season in which they have conceded in every home league game.
- 11 October 2026, Bundesliga: TSV Hartberg 4-3 Austria Lustenau, after a 1-2 half-time scoreline.
- Hartberg recorded 18 shots with 12 on target, and faced 15 shots with 6 on target.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.05
The read
Hartberg have the stronger home record and face an away side without a league win, so they are more likely to take the points.
- Hartberg are 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in five home league games, scoring 10 and conceding 12.
- Wolfsberger are 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in four league away games, scoring 2 and conceding 9.
- Wolfsberger have lost five successive league matches and changed coach two days before kickoff.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTSV HartbergEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.50
The read
Wolfsberger concede more often before half-time and Hartberg can lead at the break.
- Hartberg average 0.6 first-half goals for and 1.2 against in home league games.
- Wolfsberger average 0.8 first-half goals for and 1.4 against in away league games.
- Wolfsberger have conceded first-half goals in four of their last five league matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostTSV HartbergEstimated chance37%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Hartberg have the stronger home record and face an away side without a league win, so they are more likely to take the points. Hartberg's home wins are not dominant and Wolfsberger's only away point came in a draw, so a share is plausible.
- Hartberg are 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in five home league games, scoring 10 and conceding 12.
- Wolfsberger are 0 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats in four league away games, scoring 2 and conceding 9.
- Hartberg have drawn one of five home league games.
- Wolfsberger have drawn one of four league away games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonTSV Hartberg or DrawEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Wolfsberger concede more often before half-time and Hartberg can lead at the break. Both teams have modest first-half scoring records, so the break can arrive level.
- Hartberg average 0.6 first-half goals for and 1.2 against in home league games.
- Wolfsberger average 0.8 first-half goals for and 1.4 against in away league games.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTSV Hartberg or DrawEstimated chance73%

Goals0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Hartberg's home matches have produced goals at both ends and Wolfsberger's recent games have also been open.
- Hartberg's five home league games average 4.4 total goals.
- Wolfsberger's four league away games average 2.75 total goals.
- Hartberg have both scored and conceded in 7 of 11 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hartberg have conceded in every home league game and Wolfsberger have found the net in enough matches to make both teams scoring likely.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Hartberg's 5 home league games.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Wolfsberger's 10 competitive matches.
- Hartberg have conceded in every home league game this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Both sides' first-half records point to at least one goal before the break.
- Hartberg's home league games average 1.8 first-half goals.
- Wolfsberger's away league games average 2.2 first-half goals.
- Every one of Hartberg's last six competitive matches had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance78%

Match stats2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Both teams' matches produce around ten corners, so the 8.5 line is likely to be passed.
- Hartberg's home league games average 4.0 corners for and 6.0 against.
- Wolfsberger's away league games average 5.25 corners for and 5.0 against.
- Hartberg's overall matches average 12.1 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams allow plenty of shots, so the combined total should clear 22.5.
- Hartberg's home league games average 28.2 total shots.
- Wolfsberger's away league games average 32.75 total shots.
- Wolfsberger's overall matches average 28.8 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches average around nine shots on target, so over 7.5 is favoured.
- Hartberg's home league games average 10.0 total shots on target.
- Wolfsberger's away league games average 9.75 total shots on target.
- Hartberg's overall matches average 9.8 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Wolfsberger's recent matches have been card-heavy and the coaching change adds disruption.
- Wolfsberger's away league games average 2.5 yellow cards for and 2.25 against.
- Wolfsberger have had a red card in 3 of 6 competitive matches with card data.
- Hartberg's home league games average 1.8 yellow cards for and 1.0 against.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%