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Predictions graded

Sturm Graz2SV Ried2

HT 1–1Sun 25 Oct 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–271%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 27–10On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 8–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 15:18 · Europe/Bucharest

Fourth hosts fifth with three points between them, and Sturm Graz's unbeaten home league record makes them the more likely winners — though not by the margin the 1.55 price demands.

Ried have scored in every one of their last six competitive matches, so both teams finding the net and at least three goals are live, but 1.50 and 1.40 are also shorter than the case warrants. None of the four quoted prices is worth taking.

Context

Khudyakov's serious derby injury has led Sturm to start Helac and name Lorenz as the only other goalkeeper in the match squad. Stejskal's arrival provides a longer-term response, but he cannot be selected here. The change directly affects Sturm's starting XI and their goalkeeping cover for this fixture.
- Daniil Khudyakov suffered a serious lower-leg injury in the derby.
- Sturm Graz signed former WSG goalkeeper Adam Stejskal as a free agent during the following week.
- Ammar Helac starts in goal against Ried, with Elias Lorenz as the backup goalkeeper.
- Stejskal is not yet an option for the fixture.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 15:15 · Europe/BucharestMatch tickerwww.kicker.de · 25 Oct 2026
Ingolitsch placed Thursday's Europa League match directly in the preparation context for Ried. The short turnaround may shape training load, recovery work and selection decisions for Sturm. The available evidence does not identify any specific rotation or availability change.
- Fabio Ingolitsch identified quick recovery from Thursday's Europa League fixture as necessary before facing Ried.
- He linked the Ried fixture to completing a week that included the derby and Europa League football.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 15:15 · Europe/BucharestMatch tickerwww.kicker.de · 25 Oct 2026
That was the clearest display of Sturm's attacking ceiling at home this season, and it shows the shot volume they can generate there: 23 attempts, 10 of them on target. Against a Ried side that has conceded in each of its last six matches, that home output is the main reason Sturm are favoured. The counterweight is the sample — one afternoon against opponents who shipped six.
- 18 October 2026, Bundesliga: Sturm Graz 6-1 Grazer AK, 3-1 at half-time.
- Shots: Sturm 23, Grazer AK 12; shots on target 10-3.
- Corners: Sturm 7, Grazer AK 2.
Ried have shown they can take three points on the road while conceding territory and shot volume, which matters against a Sturm side that piles up attempts at home. They led 2-1 at the break and held on through a second half without further goals. It is one match, so it reads as a pattern worth watching rather than a settled trait.
- 10 October 2026, Bundesliga: WSG Wattens 1-2 Ried, with Ried 2-1 ahead at half-time.
- Shots: Ried 13, Wattens 22; shots on target 4-8.
- Corners: Ried 4, Wattens 7.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Sturm Graz

1.55fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 64.5%

−12.5ppshort

Sturm's strong home record and clear head-to-head edge make them the more likely winner, though not by a wide margin.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

−8.7ppshort

Ried's away scoring habit and Sturm's tendency to concede at home point to both teams finding the net.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 71.4%

−14.4ppshort

Ried's open away games and the recent head-to-head scoring make at least three goals more likely than not.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.7%

−9.7ppshort

Both teams show enough first-half scoring activity for at least one goal before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Sturm's strong home record and clear head-to-head edge make them the more likely winner, though not by a wide margin.
- Sturm are unbeaten at home in the league (3W 1D) with 10 goals scored and 3 conceded.
- Sturm have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings.
- Ried's away league record is 1W 1D 2L with 6 scored and 9 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSturm GrazEstimated chance52%

Goals3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ried's away scoring habit and Sturm's tendency to concede at home point to both teams finding the net.
- Ried have scored in all six away matches tracked and both teams scored in all six.
- Sturm conceded in four of seven home matches tracked.
- Both teams scored in four of the last five head-to-head meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Ried's open away games and the recent head-to-head scoring make at least three goals more likely than not.
- Ried's away matches average 4.5 total goals (2.67 for, 1.83 against).
- Sturm's four home league matches have produced 13 goals (10 for, 3 against).
- Three of the last five head-to-heads went over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Both teams show enough first-half scoring activity for at least one goal before the break.
- Ried's away first halves average 3.0 total goals (1.83 for, 1.17 against).
- Sturm's home first halves average 1.14 total goals (0.71 for, 0.43 against).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner numbers from both teams' tracked matches lean toward a match with at least ten corners.
- Sturm home matches average 11.86 total corners (6.57 for, 5.29 against).
- Ried away matches average 9.5 total corners (4.25 for, 5.25 against).
- Ried overall matches average 10.11 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' tracked matches point to a combined shot count around or above thirty.
- Sturm home matches average 31.86 total shots (15.71 for, 16.14 against).
- Ried away matches average 31.0 total shots (15.0 for, 16.0 against).
- Ried overall matches average 32.0 total shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 29.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The card averages sit close to but below the 4.5 line, making a moderate match slightly more likely than a card-heavy one.
- Sturm home matches average 4.29 total yellow cards (2.0 for, 2.29 against).
- Ried away matches average 3.25 total yellow cards (2.25 for, 1.0 against).
- Both teams overall average just over 4 cards per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

4W · 1D · 0W

W1-0Sturm GrazvRiedFeb 8, 2026BL

W1-3RiedvSturm GrazAug 16, 2025BL

W1-3RiedvSturm GrazAug 28, 2024CUP

W2-1Sturm GrazvRiedOct 30, 2022BL

D1-1RiedvSturm GrazAug 6, 2022BL

Sturm Graz unbeaten in 5 meetings2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Sturm Graz Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)	9	5	2	2	16-10	17	WWLWL
5	SV Ried Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)	9	4	2	3	16-15	14	WWWDL

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz

W1-0MarseilleOct 22UEF

W6-1Grazer AKOct 18BL

L0-3BournemouthOct 15UEF

W2-0Austria ViennaOct 10BL

W3-1Floridsdorfer ACOct 2FRI

L0-3Red Bull SalzburgSep 20BL

D0-0RennesSep 16UEF

W2-1Lask LinzSep 13BL

W4-1VoitsbergSep 5CUP

L1-3Rapid ViennaAug 30BL

D1-1Austria LustenauAug 22BL

W1-0SCR AltachAug 15BL

L0-1FenerbahçeAug 11UEF

W2-0TSV HartbergAug 8BL

L0-2FenerbahçeAug 5UEF

SV Ried

SV Ried

W3-2Austria ViennaOct 17BL

W2-1WSG WattensOct 10BL

D3-3SKU AmstettenOct 2FRI

W4-1Wolfsberger ACSep 20BL

D1-1Red Bull SalzburgSep 11BL

W5-1Wallern / MarienkirchenSep 4CUP

L2-3TSV HartbergAug 30BL

W1-0Grazer AKAug 21BL

L1-4Lask LinzAug 14BL

L1-2Rapid ViennaAug 9BL

D1-1Austria LustenauAug 2BL

W5-1DornbirnJul 24CUP

L0-4Mlada BoleslavJul 18FRI

W3-0Rot-Weiß EssenJul 17FRI

D1-1BaşakşehirJul 10FRI

Squad & Injuries

Sturm Graz

37 available

Attackers9

Midfielders11

Defenders13

Goalkeeper4

SV Ried

34 available

Attackers11

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper4