Sturm Graz2LASK Linz1

HT 1–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 15:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–925%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 35%–65%ShotsShots 14–26On targetOn target 7–4CornersCorners 3–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 00:46 · Europe/Bucharest

LASK Linz are the stronger side with a perfect league record, but their Champions League trip to Athens may level the playing field.

The only slight value is on LASK or draw at 1.36; avoid over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, as the odds overestimate the likelihood of a high-scoring game.

Context

LASK Linz are top of the Austrian Bundesliga with 15 points from five matches.
They have scored 15 goals and conceded only two in the league, including a 3-1 away win at Wolfsberger AC on 1 September and a 3-0 home win over SCR Altach on 29 August. This run shows they can control games and finish chances, which will test a Sturm Graz side that has drawn two of their last three league matches.
- LASK Linz have won all five Bundesliga matches this season.
- They beat Wolfsberger AC 3-1 away on 1 September and SCR Altach 3-0 at home on 29 August.
- They lead the table with 15 points, two ahead of Red Bull Salzburg.
Sturm Graz are fourth in the Bundesliga with eight points.
They have won two, drawn two, and lost one of their five league matches. Their last league result was a 3-1 away defeat to Rapid Vienna on 30 August, and they drew 1-1 at home with Austria Lustenau on 22 August. This inconsistency suggests they may struggle to match LASK Linz's current level.
- Sturm Graz have eight points from five matches, seven behind LASK Linz.
- They lost 3-1 away to Rapid Vienna on 30 August and drew 1-1 at home with Austria Lustenau on 22 August.
- Their league form reads LDWWD.
Sturm Graz defender A. Vallci is available after serving his one-match cup suspension.
His return gives Sturm another defensive selection option against LASK. The suspension was served in the cup match at Voitsberg, so he is eligible for this Bundesliga fixture.
- ORF reported that Vallci received a one-match ban after his red card against Rapid for denying Ercan Kara an obvious scoring opportunity.
- ORF stated that the ban could be served in the 5 September cup match at Voitsberg and that Vallci is eligible against LASK on 13 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 00:44 · Europe/BucharestORF Sport: Vallci suspension decisionsport.orf.at · 31 Aug 2026Sky Sport Austria: Vallci cleared for LASKwww.skysportaustria.at · 31 Aug 2026
Sturm Graz and LASK Linz have met five times in the Bundesliga since March 2025.
The most recent matches, on 22 April and 19 April 2026, both finished 1-1. Before that, LASK Linz won 3-1 at Sturm Graz on 23 November 2025, and Sturm Graz won 2-0 at LASK Linz on 1 August 2025. These results show that neither team has dominated this fixture recently, and another tight contest is possible.
- The last two meetings ended 1-1 on 22 April and 19 April 2026.
- LASK Linz won 3-1 at Sturm Graz on 23 November 2025.
- Sturm Graz won 2-0 at LASK Linz on 1 August 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

LASK Linz

2.05fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 48.8%

0.0ppshort

LASK's perfect league start and superior goal difference give them a clear edge, though Sturm's home form and H2H draws add uncertainty.

1 St Half Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or LASK Linz

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

−10.0ppshort

LASK are unlikely to be behind at half-time, making a LASK lead or draw the most probable outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LASK's perfect league start and superior goal difference give them a clear edge, though Sturm's home form and H2H draws add uncertainty.
- LASK Linz have won all 5 Bundesliga matches this season, scoring 15 and conceding only 2.
- Sturm Graz have won only 2 of their last 5 league matches (W2 D2 L1).
- LASK Linz won the most recent league meeting 3-1 at Sturm Graz in November 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLASK LinzEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
LASK's strong form and Sturm's inconsistent results make a LASK win or draw highly likely.
- LASK Linz are unbeaten in the Bundesliga this season (5W 0D 0L).
- Sturm Graz have drawn 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- Two of the last five H2H meetings ended in draws.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostLASK Linz or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LASK's tendency to start strongly gives them a slight edge in the first half.
- LASK Linz led at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches.
- Sturm Graz led at half-time in only 33% of their last 15 matches.
- LASK scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLASK LinzEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LASK's quality should allow them to edge the second half, though Sturm may push for an equalizer.
- LASK Linz have a strong second-half goal difference in recent matches.
- Sturm Graz have been less dominant after the break.
- LASK's overall superiority suggests they can control the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostLASK LinzEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A LASK lead at half-time and full-time is possible but not highly probable given Sturm's home resilience.
- LASK Linz led at half-time in 47% of recent matches.
- LASK Linz won all 5 league matches this season.
- Sturm Graz have not lost at home in the league this season (1W 1D).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLASK Linz/LASK LinzEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LASK would need to dominate both halves, which is unlikely against a decent Sturm side.
- LASK Linz have won both halves in several recent matches.
- Sturm Graz are capable of competing in individual halves.
- LASK's overall dominance makes this a low-probability but possible outcome.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostLASK LinzEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
LASK are unlikely to be behind at half-time, making a LASK lead or draw the most probable outcome.
- LASK Linz led at half-time in 47% of matches, and drew at half-time in 13% (estimated).
- Sturm Graz trailed at half-time in only 20% of matches.
- LASK's first-half strength makes them unlikely to trail.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostLASK Linz or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong attacking numbers, and LASK's high-scoring form suggests an open game.
- LASK Linz average 2.8 goals scored per match in their last 15 games.
- Sturm Graz average 2.1 goals scored per match in their last 15 games.
- LASK's Bundesliga matches average 3.4 total goals (15 scored, 2 conceded in 5 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sturm's home scoring ability and LASK's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Sturm Graz have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- LASK Linz have conceded in only 2 of 5 league matches, but Sturm's home attack is capable.
- Two of the last five H2H meetings saw both teams score.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LASK's strong first-half scoring record could produce multiple goals before the break.
- LASK Linz average 1.2 first-half goals per match in their last 15 games.
- Sturm Graz average 0.7 first-half goals per match in their last 15 games.
- LASK led at half-time in 47% of their recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring trends suggest a decent chance of multiple goals after the break.
- LASK Linz average 1.6 second-half goals per match (2.8 total - 1.2 first half).
- Sturm Graz average 1.4 second-half goals per match (2.1 total - 0.7 first half).
- Both teams tend to score more in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be tighter, with fewer goals from both sides.
- Sturm Graz average only 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- LASK Linz average 0.5 first-half goals conceded per match.
- Both teams scoring in the first half is relatively rare in their recent matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance60%