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Start KristiansandLillestrom

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 16:001 Nov, 16:00

8Probabilities5Priced5Edges77%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 31 Oct 2026, 23:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Bottom-placed Start host sixth-placed Lillestrom, who have won the last three meetings but arrive after three games between 22 and 28 October.

Lillestrom to win is the likeliest outcome, and at 2.3 it offers a modest edge; holding Start to one goal or fewer at 1.7 is the stronger of the two quoted prices.

Context

Start are without their goalkeeper and a defender through injury, while Lillestrom are four days removed from the third of three matches between 22 and 28 October. Those conditions shape the fixture without settling it.

Start scored once and conceded nine across those three games, so recent meetings have not been close. The April 2026 win came in the top flight; the two 2025 victories were in the second tier, which tempers how much weight the run carries. Lillestrom's edge in the fixture remains the clearest guide to the likely pattern.
- 2026-04-11, Eliteserien: Lillestrom 3-1 Start.
- 2025-08-16, 1. Division: Lillestrom 3-0 Start.
- 2025-07-26, 1. Division: Start 0-3 Lillestrom.
Four away defeats in 12 is a solid rather than dominant travelling record, and the 14 goals conceded show Lillestrom do not shut games down on the road. Start's home numbers are the better half of a poor season, with three home draws in 12. The gap between the sides is visible in the table but narrower in the venue splits.
- Standings snapshot 2026-10-31: Lillestrom away 12 played, 6W-2D-4L, 13 goals for, 14 against.
- Start home record in the same 24-game season: 12 played, 4W-3D-5L, 15 goals for, 19 against.
The 0-6 Europa League defeat was followed by a 3-2 league win over Brann and a 2-1 cup win over Sogndal, so results held through the sequence. Four days separate the cup tie from this fixture. The record documents the schedule and the scorelines; it does not show how fresh the squad will be at kickoff.
- 2026-10-22, Europa League: Lillestrom 0-6 Real Sociedad.
- 2026-10-25, Eliteserien: Lillestrom 3-2 Brann.
- 2026-10-28, NM Cupen: Lillestrom 2-1 Sogndal.
Start have conceded three or more in three of their last four league matches, the exception being the 1-0 home win over Sandefjord on 25 October. The same six-match run also includes a 5-1 cup win at Raufoss on 6 October, so the spread of results is wide. The heaviest defeats point to a defence that can be opened up, not to a settled low block.
- 2026-10-18, Eliteserien: Molde 6-1 Start, with Molde recording 12 shots on target to Start's 3.
- 2026-10-11, Eliteserien: Start 2-4 Ham-Kam.
- 2026-10-25, Eliteserien: Start 1-0 Sandefjord.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Both teams' recent matches are high-scoring and the head-to-head has usually cleared three goals.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

−7.0ppshort

Both teams regularly score and concede before the break, so at least one first-half goal is likely.

Away Goals TotalUncertainty band: Strong lean

Lillestrom over 0.5

1.17fair 1.30

BetBugs 77% · Market 85.5%

−8.5ppshort

Start's leaky defence and Lillestrom's regular scoring make a Lillestrom goal likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 46%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.30
The read
Lillestrom's higher table position, stronger away record and recent head-to-head edge make an away win the most likely single result.
- Lillestrom are 6th on 39 points; Start are 16th on 19.
- Lillestrom's away league record is 6W-2D-4L; Start's home record is 4W-3D-5L.
- Lillestrom won the last three meetings, including 3-0 at Start in 2025.
- Start are without goalkeeper Manojlovic and defender Husebo through injury.
BetBugs · Match WinnerLillestromMarket price2.30Estimated chance46%

Goals4 outcomes · top 77%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both teams' recent matches are high-scoring and the head-to-head has usually cleared three goals.
- Start average 1.57 goals for and 2.00 against; Lillestrom average 1.67 for and 1.60 against.
- Four of the last five head-to-heads produced at least three goals.
- Start's last six competitive matches include 1-6, 2-4, 5-1, 0-3 and 3-2.
- Lillestrom's last six include 3-2, 0-6, 2-0, 1-1 and 2-2.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Market price1.50Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede before the break, so at least one first-half goal is likely.
- Start first-half averages: 0.71 scored, 1.00 conceded.
- Lillestrom first-half averages: 0.80 scored, 0.67 conceded.
- Four of Start's last six and four of Lillestrom's last six had a first-half goal.
- Lillestrom's away split first-half: 1.00 scored, 0.25 conceded.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.22Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.17
The read
Start's leaky defence and Lillestrom's regular scoring make a Lillestrom goal likely.
- Lillestrom scored in 12 of 15 tracked matches and in 6 of 8 away splits.
- Start conceded in 12 of 14 tracked matches and kept only two clean sheets.
- Start are missing goalkeeper Manojlovic and defender Husebo to injury.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalLillestrom over 0.5Market price1.17Estimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Start's home scoring is modest and Lillestrom's away defence has been solid, making two or more home goals unlikely.
- Start have scored 1.29 goals per home match in the recent split (4 in 7).
- Lillestrom's away split concedes 0.875 goals per match with three clean sheets in eight.
- Start have scored at most once in each of the last three meetings with Lillestrom.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalStart Kristiansand under 1.5Market price1.70Estimated chance72%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 60%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have produced enough shots on target to make the 8.5 line attainable.
- Start matches average 9.36 shots on target (4.00 for, 5.36 against).
- Lillestrom matches average 10.33 shots on target (4.25 for, 6.08 against).
- Lillestrom's away split allows 5.67 shots on target per game.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Team corner averages point to a total around ten, just above the 9.5 line.
- Start average 5.82 corners and allow 5.00 (10.82 total).
- Lillestrom average 5.08 corners and allow 5.50 (10.58 total).
- Start's home split is 6.00 for and 5.00 against; Lillestrom's away split is 3.50 for and 6.33 against.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages sit just above the 3.5 line, with Start involved in relatively card-heavy matches.
- Start matches average 4.10 cards (1.70 own, 2.40 opponent).
- Lillestrom matches average 3.42 cards (1.58 own, 1.83 opponent).
- Start have collected 1.7 yellows per match and their opponents 2.4.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance54%

Prediction history

Start Kristiansand: 2/4 recent corners projections matched

2 of 4 comparable corners projections involving Start Kristiansand matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Start Kristiansand4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

12 Jul·Eliteserien