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Predictions graded

Lillestrom3Brann2

HT 1–0Sun 25 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–267%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 30%–70%ShotsShots 16–14On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 3–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 10:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Lillestrom's level home record meets Brann's poor away form, with the visitors also missing four injured players and a suspended defender.

Lillestrom to win or draw is the likelier outcome, but 1.45 is shorter than that case justifies, and the corner lines at 1.50 sit right on the line. No quoted price here is worth taking.

Context

The heaviest result in the tracked window came on the hosts' own ground, three days before Brann's visit. Lillestrom had 14 attempts but only two on target while Real Sociedad landed eight of 16, so the scoreline reflected a defence opened up repeatedly rather than a freak finish. It does not by itself say how they will defend here, but it is the freshest evidence of what happens when they are pressed. They were 0-3 down at half-time.
- Lillestrom 0-6 Real Sociedad, UEFA Europa League, 22 October 2026, played at Lillestrom
- Half-time score 0-3
- Shots: Lillestrom 14 (2 on target), Real Sociedad 16 (8 on target)
That was an away European fixture three days before this league game, and Brann's shooting numbers in it were strong: 21 attempts, eight on target, three goals before the break. It points to an attack in working order on the road and to a squad that has just played and travelled. It does not settle how fresh they will be at Lillestrom, and the trip back from Lithuania adds to the week's load.
- Kauno Žalgiris 1-4 Brann, UEFA Europa Conference League, 22 October 2026
- Half-time score 1-3
- Shots: Brann 21 (8 on target), Kauno Žalgiris 12 (2 on target)
The clubs' most recent league meeting came on 5 September, when Lillestrøm won 2-1 after taking a 2-0 half-time lead. That gives this fixture a recent competitive reference point, including a late Brann response after Finne entered. The earlier match was played in Bergen, so its conditions do not directly replicate this return fixture.
- Vá scored in the opening six minutes and Fredrik Gulbrandsen added Lillestrøm's second before half-time.
- Espen Bjørnsen Garnås left injured after three minutes, Stian Kristiansen replaced him, and Thomas Lehne Olsen replaced Gulbrandsen in the 59th minute.
- Leo Cornic replaced Thore Pedersen at half-time; Bård Finne entered for Noah Holm in the 67th minute, scored late and was booked.
- The round-20 match was played in Bergen on 5 September with an 18:00 kickoff and Espen Eskås as referee.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 10:23 · Europe/BucharestBrann match centrewww.brann.no · 5 Sep 2026Lillestrøm match centrewww.lsk.no · 5 Sep 2026ESPN match detailswww.espn.com · 5 Sep 2026
After 23 rounds Lillestrom hold 36 points and Brann 29, but the away split is the weaker half of Brann's campaign: 20 goals scored and 19 conceded on the road with only three wins. Lillestrom's home record is close to neutral, 19 scored and 17 conceded in 11 league games, with no draws beyond the single one. Home advantage here looks like a mild factor rather than a decisive one, and Brann's away goal output is not the problem — their defending is.
- Eliteserien after 23 matches: Lillestrom 36 points (11W-3D-9L), Brann 29 points (9W-2D-12L)
- Brann away: 11 games, 3W-2D-6L, 20 goals for, 19 against
- Lillestrom home: 11 games, 5W-1D-5L, 19 goals for, 17 against
- Brann home: 12 games, 6W-0D-6L, 20 goals for, 18 against

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Lillestrom or Draw

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

−9.0ppshort

Lillestrom are competent at home in the league while Brann have lost more away games than they have won and travel with five players missing.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.35fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 74.1%

−19.1ppshort

Both defences give up goals regularly enough that each side finding the net is the marginally stronger side of this market.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 84.7%

−9.7ppshort

Neither side is slow-starting by the numbers, with first-half goal rates on both sides of the ball adding up to more than one per game.

Corners Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 10.5

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

−2.6ppshort

Brann's high corner volume and Lillestrom's healthy home corner rate combine to push the match total toward the low teens.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Lillestrom are competent at home in the league while Brann have lost more away games than they have won and travel with five players missing.
- Lillestrom league home record: 5W-1D-5L (19 goals for, 17 against in 11)
- Brann league away record: 3W-2D-6L (20 for, 19 against in 11)
- Brann unavailable: Boakye, Kjartansson, Mathisen, Opsahl injured; Sorensen suspended
- Lillestrom won the 5 September meeting 2-1 in Bergen
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLillestrom or DrawEstimated chance60%

Goals2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Both defences give up goals regularly enough that each side finding the net is the marginally stronger side of this market.
- Brann both-teams-scored in 8 of 14 competitive matches
- Lillestrom conceded in 11 of 15 tracked matches
- Brann conceded in 11 of 14 and kept only three clean sheets
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Neither side is slow-starting by the numbers, with first-half goal rates on both sides of the ball adding up to more than one per game.
- Lillestrom first-half goals: 0.73 for, 0.87 against per match
- Brann first-half goals: 0.64 for, 0.71 against per match
- Brann led 3-1 at half-time in their 22 October European away win
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Brann's high corner volume and Lillestrom's healthy home corner rate combine to push the match total toward the low teens.
- Lillestrom average 5.23 corners and concede 5.69 (13 matches)
- Brann average 8.17 corners and concede 3.75 (12 matches)
- Lillestrom average 7.5 corners at home in their home-split sample
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 10.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
As the home side Lillestrom generate a steady stream of corners, comfortably above the 4.5 line in their home sample.
- Lillestrom average 7.5 corners in their six home-split matches
- Brann concede 3.75 corners generally and 5.4 in their away-split sample
- Lillestrom's home-split opponents average only 4.33 corners
BetBugs · Home CornerslostLillestrom over 4.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Brann's corner output falls clearly when they travel, and Lillestrom do not give up many corners at home.
- Brann average 5.0 corners in their away-split matches
- Brann's overall 8.17 average is built on a much higher home figure
- Lillestrom concede only 4.33 corners per home game
BetBugs · Away CornerslostBrann under 6.5Estimated chance68%

Head-to-Head

1W · 1D · 3W

W1-2BrannvLillestromSep 5, 2026ELI

L2-1BrannvLillestromNov 9, 2024ELI

L0-2LillestromvBrannMay 12, 2024ELI

L0-2LillestromvBrannOct 1, 2023ELI

D2-2BrannvLillestromJun 11, 2023ELI

Brann: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Eliteserien 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Lillestrom	23	11	3	9	32-31	36	WDLWW
7	Brann	23	9	2	12	40-37	29	LLWLL

7pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Lillestrom

Lillestrom

L0-6Real SociedadOct 22UEF

W2-0SandefjordOct 18ELI

D1-1Sparta PrahaOct 15UEF

D2-2MoldeOct 11ELI

W5-1BærumOct 1NM

L0-3VikingSep 20ELI

L1-2TorreenseSep 17UEF

W2-0ValerengaSep 12ELI

W2-1BrannSep 5ELI

W3-0Aurskog FinstadbruSep 2NM

L1-4FredrikstadAug 30ELI

D0-0Egnatia RrogozhinëAug 20UEF

D1-1KFUM OsloAug 15ELI

L0-2RosenborgAug 9ELI

L0-4Bodo/GlimtJul 31ELI

Brann

Brann

W4-1Kauno ŽalgirisOct 22UEF

L1-3ValerengaOct 18ELI

W2-1Lincoln Red Imps FCOct 15UEF

L0-2VikingOct 9ELI

L1-2StartOct 2FRI

W2-1Bodo/GlimtSep 20ELI

W2-1OsSep 16NM

L0-2StartSep 13ELI

L1-2LillestromSep 5ELI

D0-0SandefjordAug 30ELI

W3-2PAOKAug 27UEF

W4-0FyllingenAug 23NM

D1-1PAOKAug 20UEF

W3-0Ham-KamAug 16ELI

L0-1Apollon LimassolAug 5UEF

Squad & Injuries

Lillestrom

4 out

Attackers2/8

×#19

×#19

Midfielders9

Defenders2/8

×#4

×#4

Goalkeeper3

#19 C. Jebara — Injury

#4 E. B. Garnas — Knee Injury

#19 C. Jebara — Injury

#4 E. B. Garnas — Knee Injury

Brann

10 out

Attackers2/6

×#7

×#7

Midfielders2/9

×#14

×#14

Defenders2/9

×#18

×#18

Goalkeeper3

N. Boakye — Knee Injury

#7 K. Kjartansson — Knee Injury

#14 U. Mathisen — Foot Injury

S. Opsahl — Foot Injury

#18 J. Sorensen — Yellow Cards

N. Boakye — Knee Injury

#7 K. Kjartansson — Knee Injury

#14 U. Mathisen — Foot Injury

S. Opsahl — Foot Injury

#18 J. Sorensen — Yellow Cards