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KilmarnockSt Johnstone

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 15:0031 Oct, 15:00

8Probabilities3Priced3Edges84%Strongest

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Quick Take

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Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 06:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Kilmarnock, bottom of the Premiership, host a St Johnstone side that has scored three goals in five away league games, and the hosts have won once in five at home — a fixture with no clear favourite.

St Johnstone avoiding defeat is the lean, but only at low confidence. Over 9.5 corners at 1.73 is the one quoted price the record supports; 1.29 on a first-half goal and 1.22 on Kilmarnock scoring ask for more than the form shows.

Context

Kilmarnock have taken four points from five home league games and conceded 26 goals in eleven, while St Johnstone have scored three goals in five away fixtures; both records shape the match without making it a top-of-the-table occasion.

The standings after 11 rounds show Kilmarnock 12th on 8 points, with 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats at Rugby Park and a 5-13 goal difference there. Their last three league games were a 3-2 home win over Motherwell on 17 October, a 0-3 loss at Falkirk and a 1-3 loss at Dundee. St Johnstone are 8th on 13 points and have won once on the road themselves, so home advantage has counted for little either way.
- Kilmarnock are 12th in the Premiership on 8 points from 11 games, with 11 scored and 26 conceded.
- Home league record in 2026-27: 5 played, 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses, 5 goals for, 13 against.
- Last three league results: 3-2 home win v Motherwell (17 Oct 2026), 0-3 loss at Falkirk (24 Oct 2026), 1-3 loss at Dundee (28 Oct 2026).
The away split shows St Johnstone taking 2.83 corners and conceding 7.83 per game across six matches, and 2.17 shots on target against 5.5 across the same six. Recent away trips produced 15 total corners at Rangers on 24 October and 15 at Aberdeen on 11 October. Kilmarnock take 4.67 corners per home game, so the pattern suggests a stretched contest rather than a tight one, though six matches is a narrow base for the claim.
- St Johnstone away split: 6 tracked matches, 2.83 corners for and 7.83 against per game.
- Away shots: 9.6 for St Johnstone against 16.6 for opponents across 5 tracked matches; shots on target 2.17 against 5.5 across 6.
- Away total corners: 15 at Rangers (24 Oct 2026), 15 at Aberdeen (11 Oct 2026), 11 at Dundee Utd (17 Oct 2026).
Kilmarnock have faced 17.8 shots per game across 11 tracked competitive matches while taking 11.1, and the pattern held at Falkirk on 24 October with 19 against and at Rangers on 10 October with 18. They have also conceded 26 goals in 11 Premiership games. St Johnstone's away average of 9.6 shots per game is modest, so whether that volume repeats depends on how far back Kilmarnock are pushed rather than on a relentless visiting attack.
- Kilmarnock overall: 11.1 shots for and 17.8 against per game across 11 tracked competitive matches.
- League record: 11 played, 11 scored, 26 conceded.
- Recent shots faced: 19 at Falkirk (24 Oct 2026), 18 at Rangers (10 Oct 2026), 23 at Hibernian (15 Sep 2026).
The clubs' first listed league meeting this season ended 4-3 on 2 August, settled by Fotheringham's late goal after a match full of scoring swings. That gives the return fixture a direct, recent head-to-head narrative rather than a distant historical reference. It was one early-season match at St Johnstone, however, and the supplied evidence does not establish either side's current selection or tactical setup.
- St Johnstone beat Kilmarnock 4-3 at McDiarmid Park on the opening weekend of the 2026-27 Premiership season.
- Substitute Kai Fotheringham scored St Johnstone's late winner.
- Simo Valakari described the victory as a test of character and pointed to his players' togetherness.
ReportedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 06:27 · Europe/BucharestDaily Mailwww.dailymail.com · 2 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalsUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.29fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 77.5%

−2.5ppshort

Kilmarnock have been easy to score against early, so at least one first-half goal is likely.

Home Goals TotalUncertainty band: Strong lean

Kilmarnock over 0.5

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

−12.0ppshort

Kilmarnock usually find at least one goal at home and St Johnstone concede regularly on the road.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 58%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Johnstone are better placed and Kilmarnock have struggled at home, so avoiding defeat is the more supported outcome.
- St Johnstone sit 8th on 13 points; Kilmarnock are 12th on 8 points.
- Kilmarnock's home league record is 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with 5 scored and 13 conceded.
- St Johnstone's away league record is 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with 3 scored and 8 conceded.
- St Johnstone have drawn four of 11 league games, showing they are hard to separate.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or St JohnstoneEstimated chance58%

Goals4 outcomes · top 75%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Kilmarnock have been easy to score against early, so at least one first-half goal is likely.
- Kilmarnock concede 1.14 first-half goals per game overall and 1.29 at home.
- St Johnstone score 0.57 first-half goals per game overall and 0.43 away.
- Kilmarnock's first-half matches average 1.5 total goals; St Johnstone's average 1.07.
- Kilmarnock have conceded first-half goals in several recent games, including against Dundee and Falkirk.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfMarket price1.29Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's home games have been open, though St Johnstone's low away scoring makes this close.
- Kilmarnock's competitive matches average 3.14 total goals; their home matches average 3.6.
- Four of Kilmarnock's last six matches went over 2.5 goals.
- Three of the last five head-to-heads went over 2.5 goals.
- St Johnstone's away matches average only 2.0 total goals, a counterweight.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Kilmarnock usually find at least one goal at home and St Johnstone concede regularly on the road.
- Kilmarnock score 1.29 goals per home game across seven tracked home matches.
- St Johnstone concede 1.29 goals per away game and have only two clean sheets in seven away games.
- Kilmarnock have scored five goals in five home league games.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalKilmarnock over 0.5Market price1.22Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Johnstone have scored very little away from home, so two or more goals looks unlikely.
- St Johnstone average 0.71 away goals across seven away matches, scoring four in total.
- In their last two away league games they scored 0 at Rangers and 1 at Aberdeen.
- Kilmarnock concede 2.14 home goals per game, which is the main counterweight.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalSt Johnstone under 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 84%

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides give up plenty of shots, so the match should comfortably pass the 21.5 total.
- Kilmarnock matches average 28.9 total shots (11.1 for, 17.8 against) across 11 tracked games.
- St Johnstone matches average 25.3 total shots (10.5 for, 14.8 against) across 11 tracked games.
- St Johnstone away games average 26.2 total shots (9.6 for, 16.6 against).
- Recent match shot totals include 30, 31 and 35 for Kilmarnock and 32, 30 and 29 for St Johnstone.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderOver 21.5Estimated chance84%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
St Johnstone's away matches generate a high corner count against them, and Kilmarnock should add enough to clear 9.5.
- St Johnstone away games concede 7.83 corners per game while taking 2.83.
- Kilmarnock home games take 4.67 corners and concede 4.5.
- Recent total corners in St Johnstone games: 10, 15, 11, 15, 11 and 13.
- Kilmarnock's last six total corners: 12, 16, 8, 10, 8 and 22.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 9.5Market price1.73Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' card averages sit around the line, so a calmer match is slightly more likely.
- Kilmarnock average 2.0 yellow cards and their opponents 1.25, a combined 3.25.
- St Johnstone average 1.55 yellow cards and their opponents 1.36, a combined 2.91.
- Red cards are low for both, though St Johnstone have had one in a recent away game.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderUnder 3.5Estimated chance56%