PremiershipFull time

Predictions graded

Aberdeen0Kilmarnock0

HT 0–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–730%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 55%–45%ShotsShots 10–11On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 6–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 13:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Aberdeen are favoured by the market, but our model sees no value in backing them at 1.73 (45% estimate vs 58% implied).

The goals markets are also overpriced: Over 2.5 at 1.62 (55% vs 61.7%) and Over 0.5 first-half goals at 1.22 (65% vs 82%) both offer negative edges. Best approach is to avoid these markets or look for better prices elsewhere, as the match is closer than the odds suggest.

Context

Kilmarnock are 12th in the Premiership with 0 points from 3 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 13.
They lost 4-0 at home to Dundee United on 29 August, 5-1 at home to Celtic on 9 August, and 4-3 away to St Johnstone on 2 August. This poor start means they are under pressure to get points, but their defence has been leaking goals, which Aberdeen may exploit.
- Kilmarnock lost 4-0 at home to Dundee United on 29 August 2026.
- Kilmarnock lost 5-1 at home to Celtic on 9 August 2026.
- Kilmarnock lost 4-3 away to St Johnstone on 2 August 2026.
Aberdeen have won the last three home league meetings against Kilmarnock.
They won 1-0 on 25 April 2026, 2-1 on 14 December 2025, and 1-0 on 22 February 2025. This consistent home record suggests Aberdeen know how to get results against Kilmarnock at their own ground.
- Aberdeen beat Kilmarnock 1-0 at home on 25 April 2026.
- Aberdeen beat Kilmarnock 2-1 at home on 14 December 2025.
- Aberdeen beat Kilmarnock 1-0 at home on 22 February 2025.
Aberdeen midfielder Brad Lyons is ruled out after minor knee surgery, with the club expecting a three-to-four-week absence.
His absence removes a first-team option from Aberdeen's selection for this match. M. Ntelo has started in the same position in two of the five recent fixtures when Lyons did not start, so Ntelo is the likely replacement.
- Aberdeen announced on 27 August that Lyons had minor surgery for a knee issue.
- The club expects Lyons to miss three to four weeks and return to the matchday squad before the international break.
- B. Lyons started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- M. Ntelo started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when B. Lyons did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 13:13 · Europe/BucharestAberdeen FC — Injury Update: Brad Lyonswww.afc.co.uk · 27 Aug 2026
Aberdeen have scored 2 goals in 3 Premiership matches this season.
They lost 1-0 at home to Rangers on 30 August, lost 2-0 away to Dundee on 8 August, and won 2-1 at home to Hearts on 1 August. Their low scoring output is a concern, especially against a Kilmarnock side that has conceded 13 goals.
- Aberdeen lost 1-0 at home to Rangers on 30 August 2026.
- Aberdeen lost 2-0 away to Dundee on 8 August 2026.
- Aberdeen won 2-1 at home to Hearts on 1 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Aberdeen

1.72fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 58%

0.0ppshort

Despite strong H2H dominance, the market price is far shorter than our model suggests, leaving no value on the home win.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Aberdeen or Draw

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

The double chance is heavily juiced and offers no cushion relative to our 70% estimate.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Kilmarnock's defensive frailty and high-scoring league games make over 2.5 goals likely, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown ability to score, and Kilmarnock's leaky defense suggests Aberdeen will score while Kilmarnock can also find the net, but the odds are slightly unfavorable.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Kilmarnock's tendency to concede early and Aberdeen's first-half scoring record make a first-half goal likely, but the odds are far too short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aberdeen's strong H2H dominance and Kilmarnock's poor league form give the home side the edge, though Aberdeen's own inconsistent start tempers confidence.
- Aberdeen have won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings, including the most recent 1-0 home win in April 2026.
- Kilmarnock have lost all 3 league matches this season, conceding 13 goals.
- Aberdeen's home record this season: 1 win, 1 loss, with 2 goals scored and 2 conceded.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostAberdeenEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Kilmarnock's struggles and Aberdeen's home H2H record, the double chance of Aberdeen or draw is a safer play.
- Aberdeen have not lost at home to Kilmarnock in the last 5 H2H meetings (3 wins, 1 draw at home).
- Kilmarnock have lost all 3 league matches this season.
- Aberdeen's home form is mixed but they have scored in both home league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonAberdeen or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Aberdeen's home advantage and Kilmarnock's slow starts could lead to a first-half lead, but the last H2H was goalless at half-time.
- Aberdeen have led at half-time in 50% of their recent matches.
- Kilmarnock have trailed at half-time in 27% of their recent matches, but have conceded early often.
- In the last H2H at Aberdeen, the first half ended 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAberdeenEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If Aberdeen can take a first-half lead, they are likely to hold on given Kilmarnock's poor form, but the probability is low due to Aberdeen's inconsistency.
- Aberdeen have won 2 of their last 5 home matches when leading at half-time.
- Kilmarnock have not won any league match this season.
- Aberdeen's home H2H record is strong.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostAberdeen/AberdeenEstimated chance30%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's defensive frailty and high-scoring league games make over 2.5 goals likely.
- Kilmarnock's league matches have averaged 5.7 total goals (17 goals in 3 games).
- Aberdeen's recent home matches have seen 2, 3, and 4 total goals.
- Kilmarnock have conceded 13 goals in 3 league games, an average of 4.3 per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score, and Kilmarnock's leaky defense suggests Aberdeen will score while Kilmarnock can also find the net.
- Kilmarnock have scored in 2 of their 3 league games despite losing all.
- Aberdeen have scored in 2 of their 3 league games.
- Both teams have scored in 2 of Kilmarnock's 3 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Kilmarnock's tendency to concede early and Aberdeen's first-half scoring record make a first-half goal likely.
- Kilmarnock have conceded first-half goals in all 3 league matches (3, 3, 2).
- Aberdeen have scored first-half goals in 2 of their 3 league matches.
- Kilmarnock's first-half goals conceded average is 2.7 per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half could see goals as Kilmarnock chase the game, but Aberdeen's lower second-half scoring makes this less certain.
- Kilmarnock's league games have seen 8 second-half goals in 3 matches (2.7 per game).
- Aberdeen's league games have seen 4 second-half goals in 3 matches (1.3 per game).
- Combined second-half average is 2.0 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages suggest a high total, but recent H2H matches have been lower, so confidence is low.
- Aberdeen average 5.6 corners per game overall, but 6.0 at home.
- Kilmarnock average 4.5 corners per game overall, but 4.0 away.
- Combined average is 10.1 corners per game, but recent H2H meetings have been lower.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages and competitive nature of the match suggest over 3.5 cards is possible.
- Aberdeen average 2.3 yellow cards per game, Kilmarnock average 2.3.
- Combined average is 4.6 cards per game.
- Recent H2H meetings have seen 3, 4, and 5 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 58% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W1-0AberdeenvKilmarnockApr 25, 2026PRE

L3-0KilmarnockvAberdeenJan 31, 2026PRE

W2-1AberdeenvKilmarnockDec 14, 2025PRE

W0-1KilmarnockvAberdeenOct 29, 2025PRE

W1-0AberdeenvKilmarnockFeb 22, 2025PRE

Aberdeen: 3 clean sheets1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Premiership 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Aberdeen Premiership (Relegation Group)	3	1	0	2	2-4	3	LLW
12	Kilmarnock Premiership (Relegation Group)	3	0	0	3	4-13	0	LLL

3pt gap between teamsAberdeen in relegation zoneKilmarnock in relegation zone

Recent Form

Aberdeen

L0-1RangersAug 30PRE

W3-0DundeeAug 15LEA

L0-2DundeeAug 8PRE

W2-1Heart Of MidlothianAug 1PRE

W3-0Kelty HeartsJul 25LEA

W4-1Queen of the SouthJul 22LEA

W2-1Queen's ParkJul 18LEA

W2-0Brora RangersJul 14LEA

W2-0LinfieldJul 11FRI

L3-6Ross CountyJul 7FRI

L0-1TwenteJul 4FRI

W1-0Cove RangersJun 27FRI

L2-3DundeeMay 17PRE

L0-2ST MirrenMay 12PRE

W2-0Dundee UtdMay 9PRE

Kilmarnock

L0-4Dundee UtdAug 29PRE

W3-2Ayr UtdAug 14LEA

L1-5CelticAug 9PRE

L3-4ST JohnstoneAug 2PRE

W1-0Hamilton AcademicalJul 21LEA

W1-0Elgin CityJul 18LEA

W3-2LinfieldJul 4FRI

W4-0GlentoranJul 1FRI

W4-1LivingstonMay 17PRE

W3-1DundeeMay 12PRE

W3-0ST MirrenMay 9PRE

W3-0Dundee UtdMay 2PRE

L0-1AberdeenApr 25PRE

D2-2DundeeApr 11PRE

L0-3HibernianApr 4PRE

Squad & Injuries

Aberdeen

29 available

Attackers3

Midfielders13

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Kilmarnock

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Aberdeen

Aberdeen or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Aberdeen

Aberdeen or Draw

Aberdeen, draw no bet

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Aberdeen

Kilmarnock

Squad & Injuries

Aberdeen

Kilmarnock