PremiershipFull time

Predictions graded

Dundee1St Johnstone1

HT 0–0Wed 2 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions5–838%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 10–15On targetOn target 2–3CornersCorners 2–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 10:54 · Europe/Bucharest

The best betting value is Dundee or Draw at 1.48, with a +4.4-point edge over the model's 72% estimate.

Avoid the goals and clean sheet markets, as they are priced close to or above the model's probabilities. Dundee's home resilience and St Johnstone's away struggles support the double chance, but the outright win edge is too small to back confidently.

Context

St Johnstone are 9th in the Premiership with 3 points from 3 matches.
Their away record is 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 1 goal scored and 3 conceded. They lost 2-1 at Heart of Midlothian on 29 August and 1-0 at St Mirren on 8 August. This suggests they struggle on the road, but the sample is only two matches.
- St Johnstone lost 2-1 at Heart of Midlothian on 2026-08-29.
- St Johnstone lost 1-0 at St Mirren on 2026-08-08.
- Away record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 1 goal for, 3 against.
Dundee head coach Steven Pressley identified problems with his side's pressure, second-ball work and ball retention after the 30 August defeat to Hibernian.
The short turnaround means those control issues are directly relevant against St Johnstone. If Dundee fail to contest loose balls and sustain pressure, St Johnstone may be allowed to build attacks and push the home side back.
- Pressley said Dundee did not get their pressure right against Hibernian.
- He said Dundee failed to collect enough second balls and turned possession over too often.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 10:53 · Europe/BucharestSky Sports: Dundee 1-2 Hibernianwww.skysports.com · 30 Aug 2026
Dundee are 4th in the Premiership with 6 points from 4 matches.
In their last four league matches, Dundee beat Aberdeen 2-0 at home on 8 August, lost 1-0 at Celtic on 3 August, won 2-0 at Dundee United on 22 August, and lost 2-1 at home to Hibernian on 30 August. This inconsistency makes their performance hard to predict, but they have been competitive in most games.
- Dundee lost 2-1 at home to Hibernian on 2026-08-30.
- Dundee won 2-0 at Dundee United on 2026-08-22.
- Dundee lost 1-0 at Celtic on 2026-08-03.
- Dundee won 2-0 at home to Aberdeen on 2026-08-08.
St Johnstone manager Simo Valakari highlighted rotations, movement and passing behind his side's sustained second-half pressure at Hearts on 29 August.
Dundee will need to manage that recent attacking approach if Saints establish their rhythm. St Johnstone's ability to build sustained pressure can affect Dundee's defensive organisation and the volume of attacks the home side must absorb.
- St Johnstone scored in the 48th minute and maintained sustained second-half pressure at Hearts.
- Valakari said his side could push opponents deep through rotations, movement and passing when applying that pressure.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 10:53 · Europe/BucharestSt Johnstone FC: Hearts 2-1 St Johnstone match reportwww.perthstjohnstonefc.co.uk · 29 Aug 2026Sky Sports: Hearts 2-1 St Johnstonewww.skysports.com · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.80fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 55.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities, supporting a higher-scoring contest.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both sides have consistent scoring records and leaky defenses, making goals at both ends likely.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

St Johnstone to score

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

St Johnstone's consistent away scoring and Dundee's defensive frailties make a home clean sheet unlikely.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Dundee to score

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Dundee's home scoring record and St Johnstone's away defensive issues point to an away clean sheet being unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundee's superior home form and strong recent H2H edge, combined with St Johnstone's poor away record, make them the likeliest winner.
- Dundee home record this season: 1W-0D-1L, 3 goals scored, 2 conceded
- St Johnstone away record this season: 0W-0D-2L, 1 goal scored, 3 conceded
- H2H last 5: Dundee won 3, St Johnstone won 1, draw 1
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDundeeEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dundee's home resilience and St Johnstone's away struggles make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Dundee have lost only 1 of their last 4 home matches in all competitions
- St Johnstone have lost both away league matches this season
- H2H at Dundee: 1 win, 1 draw in last 2 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDundee or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St Johnstone's superior first-half performance metrics give them an edge to lead at the break.
- St Johnstone led at half-time in 47% of recent matches
- Dundee led at half-time in only 20% of recent matches
- St Johnstone average 1.2 first-half goals vs Dundee's 0.4
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSt JohnstoneEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dundee's stronger second-half scoring and St Johnstone's defensive lapses after the break favor a home second-half win.
- Dundee have scored 60% of their goals in the second half in recent matches
- St Johnstone have conceded 62% of their goals in the second half
- Dundee's home crowd support often lifts second-half performance
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDundeeEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A tight first half followed by a Dundee breakthrough is a plausible pattern given the teams' profiles.
- Dundee have drawn at half-time in 47% of recent matches
- Dundee have won 40% of their home matches this season
- St Johnstone have lost both away matches this season
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DundeeEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities, supporting a higher-scoring contest.
- Dundee average 1.7 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match in last 15
- St Johnstone average 2.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match in last 15
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records and leaky defenses, making goals at both ends likely.
- Dundee have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches
- St Johnstone have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
St Johnstone's strong first-half scoring record and Dundee's tendency to concede early suggest a first-half goal is likely.
- Dundee average 0.4 first-half goals scored, 0.6 conceded
- St Johnstone average 1.2 first-half goals scored, 0.5 conceded
- St Johnstone led at half-time in 47% of recent matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score more after the break, and H2H history shows frequent second-half goals.
- Dundee average 1.3 second-half goals per match (derived from totals)
- St Johnstone average 1.1 second-half goals per match (derived from totals)
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had at least 2 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
St Johnstone's consistent away scoring and Dundee's defensive frailties make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Dundee have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 home matches
- St Johnstone have scored in 4 of their last 5 away matches
- St Johnstone average 2.3 goals per match in recent form
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSt Johnstone to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dundee's home scoring record and St Johnstone's away defensive issues point to an away clean sheet being unlikely.
- St Johnstone have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 5 away matches
- Dundee have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches
- Dundee average 1.7 goals per match in recent form
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDundee to scoreEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' corner statistics suggest a total above 9.5 is achievable, though St Johnstone's low corner count adds uncertainty.
- Dundee average 4.9 corners per match, concede 5.9
- St Johnstone average 3.5 corners per match, concede 5.5
- Combined average corners in Dundee matches: 10.8
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The expected competitive derby atmosphere and recent card trends make over 3.5 cards a coin-flip proposition.
- Dundee average 1.5 yellow cards per match, opponents 1.9
- St Johnstone average 1.3 yellow cards per match, opponents 1.7
- Combined average cards in Dundee matches: 3.4
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

3W · 1D · 1W

W0-2ST JohnstonevDundeeMay 18, 2025PRE

D1-1DundeevST JohnstoneMar 1, 2025PRE

W1-3ST JohnstonevDundeeJan 5, 2025PRE

L1-2DundeevST JohnstoneOct 26, 2024PRE

W1-2ST JohnstonevDundeeMar 30, 2024PRE

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Premiership 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	Dundee Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)	4	2	0	2	5-3	6	LWWL
9	St Johnstone Premiership (Relegation Group)	3	1	0	2	5-6	3	LLW

3pt gap between teamsSt Johnstone in relegation zone

Recent Form

Dundee

L1-2HibernianAug 30PRE

W2-0Dundee UtdAug 22PRE

L0-3AberdeenAug 15LEA

W2-0AberdeenAug 8PRE

L0-1CelticAug 3PRE

W4-0ClydeJul 25LEA

L0-4EvertonJul 18FRI

W5-0Annan AthleticJul 14LEA

W4-2Airdrie UnitedJul 11LEA

D1-1BrechinJul 8FRI

L1-2Maccabi HaifaJul 4FRI

W2-1PaksJul 2FRI

L0-2LivingstonJun 27FRI

W3-2AberdeenMay 17PRE

L1-3KilmarnockMay 12PRE

St Johnstone

L1-2Heart Of MidlothianAug 29PRE

L0-1ST MirrenAug 8PRE

W4-3KilmarnockAug 2PRE

L0-1Inverness CTJul 21LEA

W3-0MortonJul 18LEA

W2-0Linlithgow RoseJul 14LEA

W4-2Cove RangersJul 11FRI

W3-0MontroseJul 4FRI

W4-0Forfar AthleticJun 30FRI

W1-0Ayr UtdMay 1CHA

W2-0Raith RoversApr 24CHA

W2-0DunfermlineApr 21CHA

W4-0Airdrie UnitedApr 11CHA

W4-2ArbroathApr 4CHA

D1-1Queen's ParkMar 28CHA

Squad & Injuries

Dundee

28 available

Attackers5

Midfielders12

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

St Johnstone

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Dundee or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

St Johnstone to score

Dundee to score

Result2 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Dundee

St Johnstone

Squad & Injuries

Dundee

St Johnstone