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Predictions graded

CD Varea0FC Andorra3

HT 0–1Thu 29 Oct 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Oct 2026, 22:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Varea's defensive record meets Andorra's three-tier advantage: eight clean sheets in 15 for the hosts, against a Segunda División side with one away league win in five.

The tie leans to Andorra avoiding defeat, with a draw a live part of it. Two prices hold up — under 2.5 goals in the match at 2.05 and Andorra to score under 2.5 goals at 1.73; the 1.02 double chance does not.

Context

Varea's route into this tie is defensive: they rarely concede more than once and have kept eight clean sheets in 15 competitive matches. That makes a tight scoreline the natural starting point and the main reason the match total sits under the line. The limit is that they score little themselves, at 0.8 goals per game, so a single Andorra goal can settle the tie.
- Across 15 competitive matches from 12 April to 25 October 2026, Varea scored 10 goals and conceded 7, an average of 0.8 for and 0.53 against per game.
- Varea kept eight clean sheets in those 15 matches, and both teams scored in only five of them.
- Varea won six, drew seven and lost two across the same 15-match window.
Andorra have won once in five away league matches, scoring two goals and conceding four, which is why the draw stays in play rather than a straightforward away win. Their whole league season, three wins, one draw and seven defeats in 11, points the same way. The higher tier still separates the clubs, so this is a caution about backing them to win rather than a case for Varea.
- In five away Segunda División matches between 24 August and 18 October 2026, FC Andorra recorded one win, one draw and three defeats, scoring 2 goals and conceding 4.
- They kept one clean sheet in those five away matches and both teams scored in two of them.
- Across 11 competitive matches from 15 August to 26 October 2026, Andorra won three, drew one and lost seven, scoring 7 and conceding 9.
Andorra come into the tie off a 20-shot, 11-on-target display that still ended in a 3-2 home defeat to Burgos on 26 October 2026. The shot volume shows they can create chances; the scoreline shows the defence can be opened. Whether the three-day gap affects the performance is not established by the record, so it reads as a scheduling note rather than a reason to expect a flat night.
- FC Andorra lost 3-2 at home to Burgos in the Segunda División on 26 October 2026, three days before this Copa del Rey tie.
- Andorra had 20 shots, 11 of them on target, while Burgos recorded 14 shots and 7 on target.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or FC Andorra

1.02fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 98%

−30.0ppshort

Andorra's higher-level quality gives them the edge, but their poor away form means covering the draw is safer than backing a win.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CD Varea under 1.5

1.03fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 97.1%

−17.1ppshort

Varea's attacking output is consistently low, so one goal or none is the most likely team total.

Both Teams to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.30fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 76.9%

−16.9ppshort

Varea's home matches are usually low-event and rarely feature both teams scoring, while Andorra's defence is imperfect but facing a limited attack.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5 goals in 1st half

1.45fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69%

−1.0ppshort

Varea's first halves are extremely quiet, and Andorra's higher-level attack has not consistently started fast.

Both Teams Score First HalfwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.07fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 93.5%

−5.5ppshort

Varea rarely score before half-time, making it very unlikely both teams will do so in the opening 45.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.02
The read
Andorra's higher-level quality gives them the edge, but their poor away form means covering the draw is safer than backing a win.
- FC Andorra play in the Segunda División, three tiers above Varea's Tercera RFEF level.
- Varea have scored only 0.8 goals per game across 15 tracked matches and average 0.75 at home.
- Andorra have won just 1 of 5 away league matches tracked, so the draw is a live part of this double chance.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or FC AndorraEstimated chance68%

Goals4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Varea's low-scoring, clean-sheet-heavy profile and Andorra's modest output point to a tight cup tie.
- Varea's 15 tracked matches average just 1.33 total goals (0.8 for, 0.53 against).
- Varea have kept eight clean sheets in 15 and five in eight home matches.
- Their last six matches produced 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-1, 1-0 and 1-1 scorelines.
- Andorra's scoring output is modest, with seven goals in 11 competitive matches on the scoring record.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Varea's defensive record makes it hard to see Andorra scoring three or more in a cagey cup tie.
- Andorra have scored seven goals in 11 competitive matches on the scoring record, an average of 0.64.
- Their recent six matches include only one game with three goals.
- Varea have conceded just 0.53 goals per game and kept eight clean sheets in 15.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostFC Andorra under 2.5Estimated chance82%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.03
The read
Varea's attacking output is consistently low, so one goal or none is the most likely team total.
- Varea average 0.8 goals per game overall and 0.75 at home.
- They have scored 10 goals in 15 tracked matches, with no recent multi-goal game.
- Andorra's higher-division defenders should limit clear chances even if Varea are at home.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonCD Varea under 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Varea's home matches are usually low-event and rarely feature both teams scoring, while Andorra's defence is imperfect but facing a limited attack.
- Only one of Varea's eight home matches in the sample saw both teams score.
- Varea have kept eight clean sheets in 15 overall and five in eight at home.
- Andorra have kept only two clean sheets in 11, but Varea's low scoring makes a blank plausible.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Varea's first halves are extremely quiet, and Andorra's higher-level attack has not consistently started fast.
- Varea average 0.2 first-half goals for and 0.2 against across 15 matches.
- Varea's home first-half split is 0.25 for and 0.125 against.
- Varea's last six first halves produced no more than one total goal in any game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Varea rarely score before half-time, making it very unlikely both teams will do so in the opening 45.
- Varea average only 0.2 first-half goals scored across 15 tracked matches.
- In their last six first halves, Varea scored at most once and were often blank.
- Andorra's first-half scoring is 0.55 per game, so both teams finding the net before half-time is rare.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent second-half goal totals lean under 1.5, with Varea especially low-scoring after the break.
- Varea's second-half totals average 0.6 for and 0.33 against.
- Varea's recent second halves produced under 1.5 goals in five of six.
- Andorra's recent second halves were under 1.5 in four of six, though they scored three second-half goals at Granada and against Sporting.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance62%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.02 price requires 98.0%, above our 68.0% estimate.

Recent Form

CD Varea

W1-0AlfaroOct 25TER

W1-0CalasancioOct 18TER

W1-0AgoncilloOct 11TER

D1-1OyonesaOct 4TER

W1-0La CalzadaSep 27TER

D1-1PradejónSep 20TER

D0-0San MarcialSep 13TER

D1-1CeniceroSep 6TER

L0-2OyonesaMay 24TER

D0-0OyonesaMay 17TER

L0-1OyonesaMay 10TER

W1-0PradejónMay 3TER

D0-0AnguianoApr 26TER

D1-1Haro DeportivoApr 19TER

W3-1AgoncilloApr 12TER

FC Andorra

L2-3BurgosOct 26SEG

L0-2GironaOct 18SEG

W1-0CastellónOct 11SEG

D0-0SabadellOct 4SEG

W3-2Granada CFSep 26SEG

L1-3Sporting GijonSep 19SEG

L1-3Real Sociedad IISep 12SEG

L0-1ValladolidSep 5SEG

L0-1EibarAug 30SEG

L2-4Celta de Vigo IIAug 24SEG

W5-1AD Ceuta FCAug 15SEG

L0-4HuescaAug 7FRI

W1-0ZaragozaAug 6FRI

D0-0SabadellAug 1FRI

D0-0Europa FcJul 30FRI

Squad & Injuries

CD Varea

33 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

FC Andorra

29 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

FC Andorra under 2.5

Draw or FC Andorra

CD Varea under 1.5

No

Under 1.5 goals in 1st half

No

Result1 of 1 landed

Goals4 of 7 landed

Markets to Avoid

No

Recent Form

CD Varea

FC Andorra

Squad & Injuries

CD Varea

FC Andorra