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Predictions graded

Arda Kardzhali1Levski Sofia1

HT 1–0Tue 27 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 5–9On targetOn target 1–4CornersCorners 0–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 03:36 · Europe/Bucharest

Levski Sofia bring a 10-game unbeaten league start to Arda Kardzhali, where they have won 3-0 on each of their last two league visits.

The leaders are the likelier winners, but 1.7 is not worthwhile; under 3.5 goals at 1.22 and under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.3 also fail to make a convincing case. The other quoted prices offer no better reason to bet.

Context

That is the most recent league game between the sides staged at Arda, and it was settled by a three-goal margin. It gives Levski a clear recent away reference point, though one match alone cannot capture how Arda are playing now. Arda's current home league record of three wins, one draw and one loss is the obvious counterweight.
- One league match at Arda, 2 November 2025: Arda Kardzhali 0-3 Levski Sofia.
The sample covers league and Europa League games, with Levski averaging 1.6 goals for and 0.87 against per match. Eight clean sheets in 15 makes a tight contest the natural reading, although Arda's 3-2 home loss to Botev Plovdiv on 4 September shows the hosts can be involved in a more open game.
- 15 competitive matches, 7 August to 22 October 2026: 9W 3D 3L, 8 clean sheets, 0.87 goals conceded per game, scored in 11 of 15.
Arda scored in 11 of their 12 tracked competitive matches, a useful counter to Levski's eight clean sheets in 15. Their home league record of three wins, one draw and one loss includes nine goals scored and five conceded in five games. The caution is that Arda also conceded in eight of those 12 matches, so scoring has not always brought control.
- 12 competitive matches, 18 July to 18 October 2026: 6W 2D 4L, scored in 11 of 12, conceded in 8 of 12, 1.42 goals for and 1.50 against per game.
The match added another away fixture to Levski's week ahead of this game. The shot count ran 6-13 against them, with 3-2 on target in their favour. That does not establish fatigue, but it is a concrete workload note for a side that has also faced Europa League opposition in recent weeks.
- One match, 22 October 2026: Plzen 1-2 Levski Sofia in the Europa League; Levski had 6 shots to 13 and 3 on target to 2.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Levski Sofia

1.70fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 58.8%

−6.8ppshort

Levski are unbeaten league leaders with a strong away record and recent 3-0 wins at Arda.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 3.5

1.22fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 82%

−7.0ppshort

Levski's low conceding rate and the tight recent head-to-head totals point to a moderate-scoring game.

Away Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Levski Sofia over 0.5

1.20fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83.3%

−5.3ppshort

Levski have scored in every league away game and rarely fail to find the net.

Home Goals TotalwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Arda Kardzhali under 1.5

1.18fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 84.7%

−14.7ppshort

Levski have kept Arda to 0, 0 and 1 in recent home meetings, making a low home output likely.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5 goals in 1st half

1.30fair 1.35

BetBugs 74% · Market 76.9%

−2.9ppshort

Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding averages are low, pointing to a quiet opening period.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Levski are unbeaten league leaders with a strong away record and recent 3-0 wins at Arda.
- Levski are top with 28 points from 10 league games (9W 1D 0L).
- Levski's league away record is 4W 1D 0L with 9 goals for and 3 against.
- Levski won 3-0 on their last two league visits to Arda and beat them 1-0 in April.
- Arda's home league record is 3W 1D 1L but they lost 3-2 at home to Botev Plovdiv in September.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLevski SofiaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Low first-half goal rates for both teams make a level half-time score a reasonable outcome.
- Arda average 0.58 first-half goals for and 0.58 against.
- Levski average 0.53 first-half goals for and 0.27 against overall; 0.44 and 0.33 away.
- Both teams' first-half goal averages are below one per team.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Levski's low conceding rate and the tight recent head-to-head totals point to a moderate-scoring game.
- Levski concede 0.87 goals per game overall and have 8 clean sheets in 15.
- Arda average 1.42 goals for and 1.50 against in 12 competitive games.
- The last five head-to-heads produced 1, 3, 3, 2 and 2 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Levski have scored in every league away game and rarely fail to find the net.
- Levski scored in 7 of 9 away matches and in all 5 league away games.
- Levski average 1.44 away goals; Arda have 4 clean sheets in 12 but concede 1.5 per game overall.
- Arda conceded in 8 of 12 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonLevski Sofia over 0.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Levski's clean-sheet record and Arda's blanks in this fixture favor at least one side not scoring.
- Levski have 8 clean sheets in 15 and 4 in 9 away.
- Arda failed to score in three of the last five head-to-heads.
- Levski conceded only 4 goals in 10 league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Levski have kept Arda to 0, 0 and 1 in recent home meetings, making a low home output likely.
- Arda scored 0, 0 and 1 in their last three home league meetings with Levski.
- Levski have 8 clean sheets in 15 and concede 0.87 per game overall.
- Arda average 1.42 goals per game overall.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonArda Kardzhali under 1.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding averages are low, pointing to a quiet opening period.
- Arda average 0.58 first-half goals for and 0.58 against in 12 games.
- Levski average 0.53 first-half goals for and 0.27 against in 15 games.
- Levski's away first-half figures are 0.44 for and 0.33 against in 9.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance74%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' combined corner averages sit just above the 6.5 line.
- Arda average 3.6 corners for and 4.0 against in 5 tracked matches.
- Levski average 3.22 for and 4.11 against in 9 tracked matches.
- Levski's away corner totals average 2.83 for and 4.83 against in 6.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.7 price requires 58.8%, above our 52.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L1-0Levski SofiavArda KardzhaliApr 9, 2026FIR

L0-3Arda KardzhalivLevski SofiaNov 2, 2025FIR

L0-3Arda KardzhalivLevski SofiaMay 14, 2025FIR

D1-1Levski SofiavArda KardzhaliApr 26, 2025FIR

D1-1Arda KardzhalivLevski SofiaMar 16, 2025FIR

Levski Sofia unbeaten in 5 meetingsLevski Sofia: 3 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

First League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Arda Kardzhali Promotion - efbet League (Conference League Group)	11	5	2	4	15-17	17	LDLLW
1	Levski Sofia Promotion - efbet League (Championship Group)	10	9	1	0	23-4	28	WDWWW