Levski Sofia1CSKA 1948 Sofia0

HT 0–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges3–730%

PossPossession 51%–49%ShotsShots 12–7On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 3–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Sep 2026, 05:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Levski Sofia are strong favourites at home, but the outright odds offer no value.

The best betting edges are on Levski to score at least two goals (Over 1.5 home goals) and CSKA 1948 not to keep a clean sheet, while the first-half goals over 0.5 market is overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Levski Sofia are the current league leaders with 18 points from six matches.
They have won all six league games, including a 6-0 home win over Spartak Varna on 22 August and a 3-1 away win at Botev Plovdiv on 30 August. Their home record is especially strong: four wins, 13 goals scored and only one conceded. This consistent form suggests they are likely to control the match and create chances, though CSKA 1948's recent away win shows they can compete.
- Levski Sofia have 18 points from 6 matches, with 6 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- They have scored 18 goals and conceded only 3, giving a goal difference of +15.
- At home, they have won all 4 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 1.
CSKA 1948 are fourth in the table with 16 points from seven matches.
Their away record is 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss, with 5 goals scored and 4 conceded. The loss came at Septemvri Sofia on 23 August (0-1) and the draw at Spartak Varna on 17 July (2-2). This inconsistency on the road could be exploited by Levski's strong home attack, though CSKA 1948 did win their most recent away match at Lokomotiv Sofia on 8 August (3-1).
- CSKA 1948 away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss in 3 matches.
- They lost 0-1 at Septemvri Sofia on 23 August 2026.
- They drew 2-2 at Spartak Varna on 17 July 2026.
Levski Sofia midfielder A. Bouras has not started any of the five recent fixtures with available lineups, with Serginho starting in the same position in all five.
Head coach Julio Velasquez confirmed Bouras narrowly avoided a serious injury and is targeting a return only after the international break, so this fixture comes too soon. His continued absence removes a midfield option during a compressed preparation window, leaving Serginho as the established starter in that role.
- On 1 September, Velasquez said Akram had narrowly avoided a serious injury.
- Velasquez said he hoped Akram would rejoin the team after the international break.
- A. Bouras started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Serginho started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when A. Bouras did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Sep 2026, 05:20 · Europe/BucharestPFC Levski Sofialevski.bg · 1 Sep 2026
The last five head-to-head matches show a pattern of home wins.
Levski won 2-1 at home on 31 August 2025 and 2-0 at home on 3 April 2025. The most recent meeting, on 25 May 2026, ended 0-0 at CSKA 1948's ground. Levski's home record in this fixture suggests they are comfortable against CSKA 1948 in Sofia, but the draw in the last meeting shows CSKA 1948 can be resilient.
- Levski Sofia beat CSKA 1948 2-1 at home on 31 August 2025.
- Levski Sofia beat CSKA 1948 2-0 at home on 3 April 2025.
- The most recent meeting on 25 May 2026 ended 0-0 at CSKA 1948.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's perfect league record and dominant home form, combined with CSKA 1948's weaker away record, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Levski are top of the league with 18 points from 6 games (6W 0D 0L), scoring 18 and conceding 3.
- Levski have won all 4 home league games this season, scoring 13 and conceding only 1.
- CSKA 1948 have won only 1 of 3 away league games (1W 1D 1L), scoring 5 and conceding 4.
- Levski have won 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, with CSKA 1948 winning 1 and 1 draw.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLevski SofiaEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's unbeaten league record and strong home form make them highly unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance of home win or draw.
- Levski have not lost in the league this season (6W 0D 0L).
- Levski have won all 4 home league games, with no draws or losses.
- CSKA 1948 have drawn 1 and lost 1 of their 3 away league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLevski Sofia or DrawEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levski's higher halftime lead percentage and home advantage give them an edge to be ahead at the break.
- Levski lead at halftime in 53% of recent matches.
- CSKA 1948 lead at halftime in only 29% of recent matches.
- Levski have scored first-half goals in 8 of their last 15 matches, while CSKA 1948 have done so in 7 of 15.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLevski SofiaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levski's tendency to lead at halftime and their overall dominance at home support a HT/FT double of home win.
- Levski have led at halftime and won the match in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- CSKA 1948 have trailed at halftime and lost the match in only 1 of their last 15 matches.
- Levski's strong home form suggests they can control the game from the start.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLevski Sofia / Levski SofiaEstimated chance40%

Goals2 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong attacking records and their recent matches have frequently exceeded 2.5 goals, making over 2.5 a reasonable expectation.
- Levski average 2.2 goals scored per match in recent form, with 18 goals in 6 league games.
- CSKA 1948 average 2.0 goals scored per match in recent form, with 15 goals in 7 league games.
- Levski's home league games have averaged 3.5 total goals (13 scored, 1 conceded in 4 games).
- CSKA 1948's away league games have averaged 3.0 total goals (5 scored, 4 conceded in 3 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While Levski's defense is strong, CSKA 1948's consistent scoring ability suggests both teams are likely to find the net.
- Levski have conceded in 3 of their last 15 matches, but CSKA 1948 have scored in all but one of their last 15.
- CSKA 1948 have scored in 6 of their 7 league games this season.
- Levski have kept clean sheets in 3 of 4 home league games, but CSKA 1948 have scored in 2 of 3 away league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, and the H2H history supports at least one goal before halftime.
- Levski average 0.7 first-half goals per match in recent form.
- CSKA 1948 average 0.6 first-half goals per match in recent form.
- In H2H meetings, 3 of the last 5 had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The teams' scoring rates suggest a decent chance of at least two second-half goals, though confidence is low due to limited direct evidence.
- Levski average 1.5 second-half goals per match (2.2 total - 0.7 first half).
- CSKA 1948 average 1.4 second-half goals per match (2.0 total - 0.6 first half).
- Combined, both teams average 2.9 second-half goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levski's strong home defense makes a clean sheet possible, but CSKA 1948's scoring consistency lowers confidence.
- Levski have kept clean sheets in 3 of 4 home league games this season.
- Levski concede an average of 0.7 goals per match in recent form.
- CSKA 1948 have failed to score in only 1 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonCSKA 1948 Sofia not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's prolific attack makes it unlikely that CSKA 1948 will keep a clean sheet.
- Levski have scored in all 6 league games this season, averaging 3.0 goals per game.
- CSKA 1948 have kept clean sheets in only 1 of their last 15 matches.
- Levski have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 league games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonLevski Sofia to scoreEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's strong scoring record at home suggests they are likely to score at least two goals.
- Levski average 2.2 goals per match overall and 3.25 goals per home league game.
- Levski have scored at least 2 goals in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- CSKA 1948 concede an average of 1.0 goals per match in recent form.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostLevski Sofia over 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's consistent scoring makes it likely they will find the net at least once.
- CSKA 1948 average 2.0 goals per match overall and 1.67 goals per away league game.
- CSKA 1948 have scored in 6 of 7 league games this season.
- Levski concede an average of 0.7 goals per match, but have conceded in 3 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostCSKA 1948 Sofia over 0.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 22.2% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 20%; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Levski Sofia has been highly reliable when projected to win

Levski Sofia has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win predictions, with an average estimated probability of 55% and an expected 2.8 fulfilled predictions. The only miss was a draw away at Borac Banja Luka, while all three home matches were won. The current 62% probability is within the historical range of 45-65%.

Recent evidence for Levski Sofia5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·First League