Sevilla2Osasuna0

HT 1–0Mon 26 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 17–10On targetOn target 7–2CornersCorners 7–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 01:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Sevilla are sixth and Osasuna eleventh after nine games, and the visitors' away record — one win, three defeats, 15 goals conceded in four — makes a home win or draw the sensible read.

Only two quoted prices hold up: Sevilla to score at 1.22 and both teams to score at 1.95. Sevilla to avoid defeat at 1.22 and fewer than two first-half goals at 1.30 ask more than the form supports.

Context

Osasuna have been a different team on the road, and this trip to Sevilla is the toughest test of that pattern.
Osasuna's away numbers — 4 played, 1 win, 3 defeats, 6 scored, 15 conceded — explain why they sit 11th despite a solid home record. The away win did come with goals of their own, so this is not a side that collapses without scoring. Sevilla's home form of two wins and two defeats is uneven enough that the pattern is a warning rather than a guarantee.
- La Liga 2026-27 away record, 4 matches: 1 win, 0 draws, 3 defeats, 6 goals scored, 15 conceded
- La Liga 2026-27 home record, 5 matches: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat, 4 scored, 3 conceded
The supplied match record gives this fixture a concrete recent head-to-head reference: Osasuna won 2-1 after Sevilla had led from the 68th minute. The turnaround and 98th-minute deciding goal make it useful background for the rematch at Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán. It documents a previous meeting rather than a current selection, fitness or tactical change.
- Neal Maupay scored for Sevilla in the 68th minute.
- Raúl García equalised for Osasuna in the 79th minute.
- Alejandro Catena scored the 98th-minute winner from a Moi Gómez cross.
ReportedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 01:54 · Europe/BucharestCaracol Radio match centrecaracol.com.co · 24 Oct 2026
Osasuna arrive in Sevilla off a composed home display rather than the away defeats that shaped their earlier form.
The win was built on control rather than a freak scoreline: 20 shots, seven on target, one on target conceded. It came a week after the 5-2 defeat at Betis, so it does not erase the away problems, but it shows the attacking threat that produced six goals in four away league games. Sevilla have conceded seven in four at home.
- 18 October 2026: Osasuna 2-0 Racing Santander; shots 20-9, shots on target 7-1
- Half-time 1-0, with Osasuna scoring once in each half
Sevilla have been slow starters and more dangerous once games open up.
Across nine league games from 15 August to 18 October, Sevilla scored 14 times, 11 of them in the second half. That split fits their recent home matches: they were level 1-1 with Barcelona at the break before losing 1-3, and beat Valencia 1-0 with a second-half goal. It points to a tight opening and more goalmouth action later, though a nine-match sample is thin.
- Sevilla La Liga 2026-27, 9 matches (15 August to 18 October): first-half goals 0.33 per game, second-half goals 1.22 per game
- 14 goals scored at 1.56 per game across the same nine matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sevilla or Draw

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

−12.0ppshort

Osasuna's away defence has been repeatedly overrun, so backing Sevilla to at least avoid defeat covers the most likely paths through this game.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Osasuna's away defence has been repeatedly overrun, so backing Sevilla to at least avoid defeat covers the most likely paths through this game.
- Sevilla are 6th on 14 points; Osasuna are 11th on 11
- Osasuna away record: 1 win, 3 defeats, 15 goals conceded in 4 games (3.75 per game)
- Osasuna lost 5-2 at Betis, 4-0 at Atlético and 5-2 at Alavés
- Sevilla home record: 2 wins, 2 defeats (5 scored, 7 conceded)
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSevilla or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Sevilla have found the net consistently while Osasuna have conceded in every away match in the sample, making a home goal the clear base case.
- Sevilla have scored 14 goals in 9 league games (1.56 per game)
- Sevilla scored in all six of their most recent matches
- Osasuna have no clean sheet in five away games, conceding 15 goals
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSevilla over 0.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both sides concede regularly and Osasuna carry a real away scoring threat, so a game with goals at both ends is the central scenario.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Sevilla's 9 league games
- Osasuna scored 6 goals in 4 away games, finding the net in three of them
- Sevilla conceded 7 goals in 4 home games and 16 in 9 overall
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's away games have been open and Sevilla's matches average well above three goals, which points to a game clearing two and a half.
- Sevilla's league games average 3.33 goals (1.56 for, 1.78 against)
- Osasuna's recent away trips produced 7, 4 and 7 total goals
- Osasuna have conceded 18 goals in 9 league games
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Both teams do most of their scoring after the break, and first halves in Sevilla's recent games have been notably quiet.
- Sevilla average 0.33 first-half goals scored and 0.78 conceded
- Osasuna away first halves: 0 scored, 1.2 conceded per game
- Four of Sevilla's last six first halves produced one goal or none
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both attacks do their damage late, and Osasuna's away games have been especially busy after the interval.
- Sevilla have scored 11 of their 14 league goals after half-time (1.22 per game)
- Osasuna away second halves: 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded per game
- Osasuna's last three away matches produced 5, 3 and 5 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance64%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Corner volume on both sides is modest, with match totals in the sample generally sitting below ten.
- Sevilla average 3.0 corners for and 3.4 against (6.4 per match)
- Osasuna average 3.6 corners for and 4.6 against (8.2 per match)
- Osasuna away: 2.4 corners for, 5.4 against per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sevilla's games are consistently shot-heavy and Osasuna give up plenty of attempts on their travels, pointing just above the line.
- Sevilla matches average 24.4 total shots (11.8 for, 12.7 against)
- Osasuna matches average 23.3 total shots (10.8 for, 12.5 against)
- Osasuna's opponents had 20 shots at Betis and 27 at Atlético
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance55%