Deportivo La Coruna0Sevilla1

HT 0–0Wed 16 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions3–925%

Edges1–420%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 4–11On targetOn target 3–6CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Sep 2026, 06:25 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value lies in goals markets: Over 2.5 goals at 2.15 (+8.5 point edge) and Both Teams to Score 'Yes' at 1.88 (+4.8 point edge).

Avoid the 1st Half Both Teams to Score 'No' at 1.15, which is heavily overpriced with a -27 point edge.

Context

Deportivo La Coruna sit 5th in La Liga with 8 points from 4 matches.
They beat Villarreal 3-2 away on 5 September and Valencia 3-1 at home on 30 August, and drew 1-1 with Malaga on 24 August. This run shows they can score and stay competitive, but two draws also mean they are not always closing out games.
- Won 3-2 at Villarreal on 2026-09-05.
- Won 3-1 at home to Valencia on 2026-08-30.
- Drew 1-1 at Malaga on 2026-08-24.
Sevilla defender A. Sangante started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His ankle sprain remains unresolved, so Sevilla may need to adjust their central defence at Riazor. The club's training report lists him among only two players with physical problems, and his return to group training depends on recovery.
- Sevilla's 9 September training report named Sangante as one of only two players with physical problems.
- Reporting on the club update described a mild right-ankle sprain and said his return to group training depended on his recovery.
- A. Sangante started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 06:23 · Europe/BucharestSevilla FC training reportsevillafc.es · 9 Sep 2026Mundo Deportivo injury reportwww.mundodeportivo.com · 8 Sep 2026
Sevilla are 6th in La Liga with 7 points from 4 matches.
They won 3-1 at Athletic Club on 22 August and drew 1-1 at Espanyol on 6 September, but lost 1-3 at home to Atletico Madrid on 29 August. Away from home they have been solid, but the Atletico defeat shows they can struggle against strong opponents.
- Won 3-1 at Athletic Club on 2026-08-22.
- Drew 1-1 at Espanyol on 2026-09-06.
- Lost 1-3 at home to Atletico Madrid on 2026-08-29.
Sevilla midfielder R. Vargas has not started any of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
He remains unavailable with a knee issue and has sought a second medical opinion, so his return before this match is uncertain. Sevilla's attacking selection could be affected if he is not fit.
- Sevilla listed Vargas among its two players with physical problems in the 9 September training report.
- On 10 September, local reporting said persistent right-knee discomfort prompted a second medical opinion in Madrid.
- R. Vargas started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 11 Sep 2026, 06:23 · Europe/BucharestSevilla FC training reportsevillafc.es · 9 Sep 2026Muchodeporte medical updatewww.muchodeporte.com · 10 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Deportivo La Coruna or Draw

1.38fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Deportivo's unbeaten league run and home resilience make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Deportivo's stronger recent league form and home advantage give them a slight edge, though Sevilla's away record is solid.
- Deportivo are unbeaten in their last 4 La Liga matches (2W 2D), scoring 8 goals and conceding 5.
- Sevilla have lost 2 of their last 4 league games, including a 1-3 home defeat to Atletico Madrid.
- Deportivo have won 2 of their last 3 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDeportivo La CorunaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo's unbeaten league run and home resilience make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance.
- Deportivo are unbeaten in their last 4 La Liga matches (2W 2D).
- Sevilla have won only 1 of their last 4 league games.
- Deportivo have not lost at home in their last 2 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDeportivo La Coruna or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Deportivo have shown a slight tendency to lead at the break, but the margin is narrow.
- Deportivo led at half-time in 2 of their last 4 league matches.
- Sevilla trailed at half-time in 2 of their last 4 league matches.
- Deportivo's first-half goal difference is +0.1 per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDeportivo La CorunaEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The teams are evenly matched in second-half performance, making a draw the most likely outcome for that period.
- Deportivo drew the second half in 2 of their last 4 league matches.
- Sevilla drew the second half in 2 of their last 4 league matches.
- Both teams have similar second-half goal averages.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is plausible given the teams' recent patterns, though not highly likely.
- Deportivo drew at half-time in 2 of their last 4 league matches.
- Sevilla drew at half-time in 2 of their last 4 league matches.
- Both teams have a tendency to draw matches overall.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither side has shown the dominance required to win both halves, making 'No' a strong prediction.
- Neither team has won both halves in their last 4 league matches.
- Deportivo have not led at half-time and full-time in the same match recently.
- Sevilla have not led at half-time and full-time in the same match recently.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo are unlikely to be losing at half-time, making a double chance of home win or draw a solid option.
- Deportivo have not trailed at half-time in 3 of their last 4 league matches.
- Sevilla have trailed at half-time in 2 of their last 4 league matches.
- Deportivo's first-half form is slightly better than Sevilla's.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDeportivo La Coruna or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring league matches recently, suggesting a good chance of over 2.5 goals.
- Deportivo's last 4 league matches averaged 3.25 total goals.
- Sevilla's last 4 league matches averaged 3.25 total goals.
- Both teams have scored in 3 of Deportivo's last 4 league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown defensive vulnerabilities while scoring consistently, making BTTS likely.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Deportivo's last 4 league matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Sevilla's last 4 league matches.
- Deportivo have conceded in 3 of their last 4 league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Deportivo's tendency to score early and Sevilla's occasional first-half defensive lapses support a first-half goal.
- Deportivo scored in the first half in 3 of their last 4 league matches.
- Sevilla conceded in the first half in 2 of their last 4 league matches.
- Deportivo's first-half goal average is 0.7 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring has been moderate for both teams, but the overall attacking intent could lead to multiple goals after the break.
- Deportivo's last 4 league matches averaged 1.75 second-half goals.
- Sevilla's last 4 league matches averaged 1.5 second-half goals.
- Both teams have scored in the second half in 2 of their last 4 league games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring has been limited for both sides, reducing the likelihood of both teams scoring before the break.
- Both teams scored in the first half in only 1 of Deportivo's last 4 league matches.
- Both teams scored in the first half in only 1 of Sevilla's last 4 league matches.
- First-half goals have been relatively scarce for both teams.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 42% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Deportivo La Coruna has been highly reliable when projected to win

Deportivo La Coruna has fulfilled 4 of 5 recent win projections. The average estimated probability was 46.4%, with an expected 2.3 fulfilled predictions, so the actual 4 fulfilled predictions exceeded expectation. The only miss came at home against Las Palmas, while both away projections were fulfilled.

Recent evidence for Deportivo La Coruna5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

31 May·La Liga 2