Osasuna1Rayo Vallecano1

HT 1–0Sat 19 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–1335%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 37%–63%ShotsShots 10–19On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 14 Sep 2026, 04:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Osasuna are favoured at home, but the value lies in goals: Rayo's away matches are high-scoring and both teams have scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Back Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, while avoiding the home win and double chance due to poor value.

Context

Rayo Vallecano sit 16th in La Liga with 4 points from 5 matches.
Their away record is 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 4 goals scored and 11 conceded. This poor away form suggests they may struggle again at Osasuna, though the sample is small and includes tough opponents like Real Madrid and Barcelona.
- Rayo Vallecano lost 4-1 at Real Madrid on 2026-09-12.
- Rayo Vallecano lost 5-2 at Barcelona on 2026-08-31.
- Rayo Vallecano lost 2-1 at Sevilla on 2026-08-15.
Osasuna midfielder Moi Gómez is in specific recovery work after a left hamstring injury and started 3 of the last 5 available lineups.
His availability for this match is unresolved, which may force Osasuna to adjust their attacking midfield selection. The club has not named a direct replacement, so the extent of any change remains uncertain.
- Osasuna’s medical tests confirmed a mild injury to Moi Gómez’s left biceps femoris after the Alavés match.
- The club said he had started a specific recovery programme and remained subject to progress.
- Moi Gómez started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 04:41 · Europe/BucharestOsasuna medical reportwww.osasuna.es · 8 Sep 2026
Osasuna are 11th in La Liga with 7 points from 5 matches.
At home, they have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, scoring 1 goal and conceding 2. This low scoring output at home could make it hard for them to take advantage of Rayo Vallecano's away struggles.
- Osasuna lost 2-0 at home to Espanyol on 2026-09-12.
- Osasuna won 1-0 at home against Getafe on 2026-08-31.
- Osasuna drew 0-0 at home with Levante on 2026-08-24.
Rayo Vallecano goalkeeper A. Batalla is sidelined after tibia surgery, and Emil Audero started in goal at Real Madrid on 12 September.
Audero is expected to continue in goal, with Dani Cárdenas as backup. This change affects defensive organisation and set-piece communication during a short turnaround.
- A. Batalla underwent surgery for a right tibia fracture suffered against Alavés.
- Rayo’s starting lineup at Real Madrid on 12 September named Audero in goal, with Dani Cárdenas among the substitutes.
- A. Batalla started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- Dani Cárdenas started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when A. Batalla did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 14 Sep 2026, 04:41 · Europe/BucharestAS: Batalla operated on for tibia fractureas.com · 24 Aug 2026Real Madrid: confirmed lineups v Rayo Vallecanowww.realmadrid.com · 12 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Osasuna

2.13fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 47%

0.0ppshort

Osasuna's home advantage and Rayo's poor away form give the hosts a slight edge, though H2H is balanced.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's home advantage and Rayo's poor away form give the hosts a slight edge, though H2H is balanced.
- Osasuna home record this season: 1W-1D-1L, 1 goal scored, 2 conceded in 3 home matches.
- Rayo away record this season: 0W-0D-3L, 4 goals scored, 11 conceded in 3 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Osasuna won 2, Rayo won 2, 1 draw; Osasuna won the most recent meeting 3-1 away.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOsasunaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rayo's away struggles and Osasuna's home resilience make the double chance a solid option.
- Osasuna have avoided defeat in 2 of 3 home matches this season.
- Rayo have lost all 3 away matches this season.
- H2H: Osasuna unbeaten in 3 of last 5 meetings (2W,1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonOsasuna or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often start cautiously, and a level first half is plausible.
- Osasuna first-half record at home: 1W,1D,1L.
- Rayo first-half record away: 0W,1D,2L.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Osasuna may edge the second half if Rayo tire, but evidence is limited.
- Osasuna have won the second half in 1 of 3 home matches.
- Rayo have lost the second half in 2 of 3 away matches.
- H2H: Osasuna won the second half in the most recent meeting.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostOsasunaEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Osasuna win is a possible but low-probability sequence.
- Osasuna have drawn at half-time in 1 of 3 home matches and won the match once.
- Rayo have drawn at half-time in 1 of 3 away matches and lost all away matches.
- H2H: one meeting had draw at HT and Osasuna win at FT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/OsasunaEstimated chance18%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Osasuna winning both halves is unlikely given their modest home scoring.
- Osasuna have won both halves in 0 of 3 home matches.
- Rayo have lost both halves in 1 of 3 away matches.
- No H2H meeting had Osasuna winning both halves.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostOsasunaEstimated chance12%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Osasuna are unlikely to trail at half-time at home, making the double chance attractive.
- Osasuna first-half home record: 1W,1D,1L.
- Rayo first-half away record: 0W,1D,2L.
- H2H last 5: Osasuna led at HT in 2, drew in 2, lost in 1.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonOsasuna or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rayo's away games are high-scoring, and H2H trends support goals, though Osasuna's home games are low-scoring.
- Rayo away matches average 5.0 total goals (15 goals in 3 games).
- Osasuna home matches average 1.0 total goals (3 goals in 3 games).
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 meetings had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown scoring ability and defensive vulnerabilities, and H2H strongly supports BTTS.
- Rayo have scored in all 3 away matches (4 goals total).
- Osasuna have conceded in 2 of 3 home matches.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to produce first-half goals, especially Rayo on the road.
- Rayo away matches: first-half goals in all 3 games (total 5 first-half goals).
- Osasuna home matches: first-half goals in 2 of 3 games.
- H2H last 5: first-half goals in 4 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is common in these teams' matches, but the line is high and confidence is low.
- Rayo away matches: second-half goals in all 3 games (total 10 second-half goals).
- Osasuna home matches: second-half goals in 2 of 3 games.
- H2H last 5: second-half goals in 4 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring in the first half is possible but not strongly supported.
- Rayo away first-half goals: scored in 2 of 3, conceded in 3 of 3.
- Osasuna home first-half goals: scored in 1 of 3, conceded in 2 of 3.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in first half in 2 of 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance30%

Match stats3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner totals are near the line, but Rayo's away matches tend to have more corners.
- Osasuna average 4.2 corners per match overall, 4.0 at home.
- Rayo average 4.8 corners per match overall, 5.0 away.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams: Osasuna 8.4, Rayo 9.8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's corner count is inconsistent, making over 4.5 a marginal call.
- Osasuna average 4.2 corners overall, 4.0 at home.
- Rayo concede an average of 5.0 corners away.
- H2H: Osasuna had 3,1,9,1,3 corners in last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Home CornerslostOsasuna over 4.5Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rayo's away corner average is slightly above the line, but variance is high.
- Rayo average 4.8 corners overall, 5.0 away.
- Osasuna concede an average of 4.0 corners at home.
- H2H: Rayo had 4,4,3,5,7 corners in last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Away CornerslostRayo Vallecano over 4.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shot totals are near the line, with both teams averaging around 25 combined shots.
- Osasuna average 12.5 shots per match overall, 12.0 at home.
- Rayo average 13.2 shots per match overall, 13.0 away.
- Combined average shots in matches involving these teams: Osasuna 25.0, Rayo 26.4.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shots on target averages are close to the line, making this a coin flip.
- Osasuna average 4.8 shots on target per match overall, 4.7 at home.
- Rayo average 5.4 shots on target per match overall, 5.3 away.
- Combined average shots on target in matches involving these teams: Osasuna 10.2, Rayo 10.8.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Card averages are slightly above the line, but variance is high.
- Osasuna average 2.3 yellow cards per match overall, 2.3 at home.
- Rayo average 2.4 yellow cards per match overall, 2.3 away.
- Combined average cards in matches involving these teams: Osasuna 4.7, Rayo 4.8.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's card count is inconsistent, making over 2.5 a marginal call.
- Osasuna average 2.3 yellow cards per match overall, 2.3 at home.
- Rayo opponents average 2.4 yellow cards per match away.
- H2H: Osasuna received 2,2,5,1,0 yellow cards in last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Home Cards Over/UnderwonOsasuna over 2.5Estimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rayo's away card average is near the line, but variance is high.
- Rayo average 2.4 yellow cards per match overall, 2.3 away.
- Osasuna opponents average 2.3 yellow cards per match at home.
- H2H: Rayo received 3,1,4,2,2 yellow cards in last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Away Cards Over/UnderlostRayo Vallecano over 2.5Estimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 47% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Osasuna has struggled to clear 4.5 cards in recent matches

Osasuna has fulfilled the Over 4.5 cards prediction in only 2 of 6 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 64%, but the actual fulfillment rate is 33%, well below the expected 3.8 fulfilled predictions. Notably, all 2 fulfilled predictions came at home, while both away matches missed.

Recent evidence for Osasuna6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 May·La Liga