Sevilla1Valencia0

HT 0–0Fri 11 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–838%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 13–3On targetOn target 4–0CornersCorners 6–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 09:17 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Both Teams to Score (Yes) at 1.95, with a model edge of +8.7 points.

Sevilla are favored but the home win offers no value, while Valencia's away struggles make them a clear avoid.

Context

Valencia is 18th in La Liga with one point from three matches, one point behind 17th-placed Celta Vigo.
Valencia has lost two of their first three league games, including a 3-1 defeat at Deportivo La Coruna on August 30. Their only point came from a 0-0 home draw with Celta Vigo on August 22. This poor start puts pressure on them to get something from this match, but their away record is also weak with one loss and three goals conceded.
- Valencia is 18th in La Liga with 1 point from 3 matches (0W, 1D, 2L).
- Valencia lost 3-1 away to Deportivo La Coruna on 2026-08-30.
- Valencia drew 0-0 at home with Celta Vigo on 2026-08-22.
Sevilla is 8th in La Liga with 6 points from 3 matches, but their home form is inconsistent.
Sevilla lost 3-1 at home to Atletico Madrid on August 29, conceding three first-half goals. They did beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1 at home on August 15, but they trailed at halftime in that match. Their home defense has allowed four goals in two games, which Valencia may try to exploit.
- Sevilla's home record: 1 win, 1 loss, 3 goals scored, 4 goals conceded.
- Sevilla lost 3-1 at home to Atletico Madrid on 2026-08-29.
- Sevilla beat Rayo Vallecano 2-1 at home on 2026-08-15.
Sevilla midfielder R. Vargas has not started any of the last five fixtures with available lineups and missed the Espanyol trip with a right knee issue.
His unresolved external parameniscitis leaves Sevilla's wide-attacking selection uncertain for this match. The club has not set a return date, so his availability remains doubtful.
- On 4 September, Sevilla said Rubén Vargas had external parameniscitis in his right knee and was receiving specific treatment.
- On 5 September, Sevilla omitted him from the Espanyol travelling squad and said he remained pending evolution.
- R. Vargas started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 09:16 · Europe/BucharestSevilla FC training updatesevillafc.es · 4 Sep 2026Sevilla FC Espanyol squad listsevillafc.es · 5 Sep 2026
The teams have met five times in La Liga since February 2024, with Valencia winning once and three draws.
In the most recent meeting on March 21, 2026, Valencia won 2-0 at Sevilla. Before that, they drew 1-1 at Valencia in December 2025. This recent away win shows Valencia can get a result at Sevilla, but the overall head-to-head is balanced with three draws in the last five.
- Valencia won 2-0 at Sevilla on 2026-03-21.
- The teams drew 1-1 at Valencia on 2025-12-07.
- In the last five La Liga meetings, Valencia has 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Sevilla

2.20fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 45.5%

0.0ppshort

Sevilla's stronger recent form and home advantage outweigh Valencia's poor away start, though H2H volatility keeps confidence medium.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Sevilla or Draw

1.30fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 76.9%

−1.9ppshort

Valencia's poor away form and Sevilla's home resilience make a home win or draw highly likely.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

1.95fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

Both teams often start cautiously, and H2H history shows frequent first-half draws.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sevilla's stronger recent form and home advantage outweigh Valencia's poor away start, though H2H volatility keeps confidence medium.
- Sevilla home record this season: 1W-0D-1L, 3 goals scored, 4 conceded
- Valencia away record this season: 0W-0D-1L, 1 goal scored, 3 conceded
- Sevilla last 5 La Liga matches: 3W-0D-2L; Valencia last 5 La Liga: 1W-1D-3L
- H2H last 5: Valencia won most recent 2-0 away, but Sevilla unbeaten in 3 of previous 4
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSevillaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Valencia's poor away form and Sevilla's home resilience make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Sevilla home record: 1W-0D-1L; Valencia away: 0W-0D-1L
- Valencia have not won away in La Liga this season
- H2H last 5: Valencia won only once, Sevilla won once, 3 draws
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSevilla or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often start cautiously, and H2H history shows frequent first-half draws.
- Sevilla leading at half-time in 20% of matches; Valencia in 29%
- Sevilla trailing at half-time in 27%; Valencia in 14%
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full draw is possible given H2H history, but recent form suggests a winner is more likely.
- Sevilla draw rate: 0% in last 5 La Liga; Valencia draw rate: 20%
- H2H last 5: 3 draws overall, but none were 0-0 at half-time and full-time
- Both teams have low draw tendencies in recent form
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches show a tendency for multiple goals, especially Sevilla at home.
- Sevilla home matches average 3.5 total goals (7 goals in 2 games)
- Valencia away match had 4 total goals (1-3 loss)
- Sevilla average 1.3 goals scored, 1.1 conceded overall; Valencia 1.3 scored, 1.4 conceded
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS likely.
- Sevilla scored in 4 of last 5 La Liga matches; Valencia scored in 3 of last 5
- Sevilla conceded in 4 of last 5; Valencia conceded in 4 of last 5
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 3 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a moderate first-half scoring rate, making at least one first-half goal likely.
- Sevilla first-half goals: 0.4 per game; Valencia first-half goals: 0.7 per game
- Sevilla first-half goals conceded: 0.6; Valencia first-half goals conceded: 0.4
- Combined first-half goal rate: 1.1 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is close to the line, with both teams showing some late-game activity.
- Sevilla average 0.9 second-half goals (total 1.3 - 0.4 first half)
- Valencia average 0.6 second-half goals (1.3 - 0.7 first half)
- Combined second-half average: 1.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sevilla's defensive record suggests they are unlikely to keep Valencia scoreless.
- Sevilla kept a clean sheet in only 1 of last 5 La Liga matches
- Valencia scored in 3 of last 5 La Liga matches
- Sevilla conceded in 4 of last 5 home matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonValencia to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Valencia's defensive fragility makes a clean sheet unlikely against Sevilla's attack.
- Valencia kept a clean sheet in only 1 of last 5 La Liga matches
- Sevilla scored in 4 of last 5 La Liga matches
- Valencia conceded in 4 of last 5 away matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSevilla to scoreEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner totals are near the line, with Valencia's matches tending to produce more corners.
- Sevilla average corners: 3.3; Valencia average corners: 4.3
- Sevilla opponent corners average: 4.3; Valencia opponent corners average: 5.3
- Combined average corners per match: 7.6
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sevilla's high foul and card counts drive the total above the line, especially in a competitive match.
- Sevilla average yellow cards: 2.9; Valencia average yellow cards: 1.5
- Sevilla average fouls: 16.3; Valencia average fouls: 9.9
- Combined average cards per match: 4.4
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Shot-on-target totals are close to the line, with both teams contributing moderately.
- Sevilla average shots on target: 4.3; Valencia average shots on target: 3.4
- Sevilla opponent shots on target average: 3.9; Valencia opponent shots on target average: 3.4
- Combined average shots on target per match: 7.7
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 7.5Estimated chance50%