Osasuna0Espanyol2

HT 0–2Sat 12 Sept 2026, 14:15 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 61%–39%ShotsShots 11–6On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 06:39 · Europe/Bucharest

Osasuna are likely to avoid defeat at home against an Espanyol side missing Kike García, but the double chance odds (1.25) offer no value.

The match is expected to be low-scoring, with under 2.5 goals and BTTS No both fairly priced. No clear betting edge exists; the best approach is to avoid the market or wait for team news on Osasuna's injured players.

Context

Osasuna has played two home matches in La Liga this season.
They beat Getafe 1-0 on August 31 and drew 0-0 with Levante on August 24. This defensive record at home may limit Espanyol's chances, but the sample is small and Espanyol has scored in three of their four league games.
- Osasuna beat Getafe 1-0 at home on 2026-08-31.
- Osasuna drew 0-0 with Levante at home on 2026-08-24.
Osasuna midfielder Aimar Oroz is still recovering from a left-hamstring injury and did not train on 4 September.
His unresolved return affects Osasuna's attacking-midfield selection and chance-creation structure against Espanyol. Without Oroz, Osasuna may need to adjust their creative setup, though the exact replacement is not specified.
- Osasuna said post-Getafe tests confirmed a left biceps-femoris injury for Oroz and that he was pending progress.
- Osasuna reported on 4 September that Oroz did not train and continued his recovery.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 06:38 · Europe/BucharestOsasuna medical reportwww.osasuna.es · 31 Aug 2026Osasuna training updatewww.osasuna.es · 4 Sep 2026
Espanyol has played one away match in La Liga this season.
They lost 2-1 to Real Sociedad on August 29. This away form is limited to one match, but Osasuna's home defensive record adds to the challenge for Espanyol.
- Espanyol lost 2-1 away to Real Sociedad on 2026-08-29.
Osasuna central defender Jorge Herrando is still recovering from an adductor injury and did not train on 4 September.
His unresolved recovery affects Osasuna's central-defence selection and defensive organisation. The team will have to consider alternatives in the back line, but no specific replacement is identified.
- Osasuna said Herrando left the Getafe match with a left-adductor injury.
- Osasuna reported on 4 September that Herrando did not train and continued his recovery.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 06:38 · Europe/BucharestOsasuna medical reportwww.osasuna.es · 31 Aug 2026Osasuna training updatewww.osasuna.es · 4 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Osasuna or Draw

1.25fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Osasuna's strong home form and Espanyol's away struggles make the double chance highly likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low-scoring home/away splits and 3 of last 5 H2H went under 2.5.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's solid home defensive record and Espanyol's poor away form give the hosts a moderate edge, supported by recent H2H advantage.
- Osasuna home record this season: 1W 1D 0L, 1 goal scored, 0 conceded
- Espanyol away record this season: 0W 0D 1L, 1 goal scored, 2 conceded
- H2H last 5: Osasuna 2 wins, Espanyol 1 win, 2 draws
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOsasunaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's strong home form and Espanyol's away struggles make the double chance highly likely.
- Osasuna unbeaten at home this season (1W 1D)
- Espanyol have not won away this season (0W 0D 1L)
- H2H: Osasuna have not lost at home to Espanyol in last 3 meetings (2W 1D)
BetBugs · Double ChancelostOsasuna or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to be level at the break, and H2H history supports a drawn first half.
- Osasuna leading at half-time in only 13% of matches, trailing in 40%
- Espanyol leading at half-time in 33%, trailing in 7%
- H2H last 5: 3 matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's home support and slightly better second-half scoring record give them a marginal edge in the second period.
- Osasuna have scored 1.0 second-half goals on average
- Espanyol have conceded 0.9 second-half goals on average
- Osasuna home advantage may boost second-half performance
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostOsasunaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Osasuna win is a plausible scenario given their second-half improvement and home advantage.
- Osasuna often draw at half-time (40% trailing, 13% leading)
- Osasuna have won 2 of their last 5 matches overall
- Espanyol have lost 2 of their last 4 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/OsasunaEstimated chance22%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown low-scoring tendencies in their respective home/away splits, and recent H2H meetings have been tight.
- Osasuna home matches this season: 1 goal scored, 0 conceded in 2 games
- Espanyol away matches this season: 1 goal scored, 2 conceded in 1 game
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had under 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Osasuna's strong home defensive record and Espanyol's inconsistent away scoring suggest at least one team may fail to score.
- Osasuna have kept clean sheets in both home league matches this season
- Espanyol failed to score in 1 of their 2 away matches this season
- H2H: 2 of last 5 meetings ended with a clean sheet for one team
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a history of tight opening halves in H2H.
- Osasuna average first-half goals: 0.3, first-half goals conceded: 0.6
- Espanyol average first-half goals: 0.8, first-half goals conceded: 0.4
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 matches had 0 or 1 first-half goal
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, and recent H2H meetings have seen more goals after the break.
- Osasuna average second-half goals: 1.0 (total 1.3 - 0.3 first half)
- Espanyol average second-half goals: 0.9 (total 1.7 - 0.8 first half)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 matches had 2+ second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively low corner counts, and the combined average suggests under 9.5 corners is likely.
- Osasuna average corners: 4.4, opponent corners: 4.4
- Espanyol average corners: 3.0, opponent corners: 5.0
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams: ~8.4
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate shooting accuracy, and the match is expected to be tight, reducing total shots on target.
- Osasuna average shots on target: 5.1, opponent shots on target: 4.3
- Espanyol average shots on target: 4.3, opponent shots on target: 4.3
- Combined average shots on target: ~9.4, but recent matches show lower totals
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to accumulate cards, and the combined average suggests over 4.5 cards is possible.
- Osasuna average yellow cards: 2.3, opponent yellow cards: 2.3
- Espanyol average yellow cards: 3.1, opponent yellow cards: 2.3
- Combined average cards: ~5.4
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Osasuna's Over 4.5 cards projections have underperformed recently

Osasuna's Over 4.5 cards projections have fulfilled in 2 of 6 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 64%, but only 33% of projections matched, falling short of the expected 3.8 fulfilled predictions. Notably, all fulfilled predictions occurred at home, while both away matches missed.

Recent evidence for Osasuna6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 May·La Liga