TSV Hartberg3LASK Linz3

HT 0–2Sun 20 Sept 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–375%

Edges5–271%

PossPossession 40%–60%ShotsShots 10–16On targetOn target 3–6CornersCorners 1–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

LASK Linz are strong favourites, but the 1.22 odds offer no value (model 65% vs implied 82%).

The best edge is Over 1.5 first-half goals at 2.05 (+6pts), with Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.00 (+5pts) also marginal. Avoid the heavily juiced match winner and double chance markets.

Context

LASK Linz has won 5 of 6 league games and scored 16 goals while conceding only 4. Hartberg has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses with a goal difference of -3.
The table gap of 8 points means LASK enters as the clear leader, but Hartberg's home record is mixed with 1 win and 2 losses. LASK's away form is solid with 2 wins and 1 loss, so they can handle this trip.
- LASK Linz is 1st with 15 points, Hartberg is 6th with 7 points.
- LASK has 5 wins and 1 loss; Hartberg has 2 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses.
- LASK has scored 16 and conceded 4; Hartberg has scored 7 and conceded 10.
The two teams have met five times in the Bundesliga since May 2025. LASK won that 5-1 game, while the other four meetings were draws or a LASK home win.
The 5-1 result is the only clear win in the recent head-to-head series, and it came at Hartberg's stadium. Hartberg has not beaten LASK in these five matches, so LASK has a strong recent edge.
- 2026-04-26: Hartberg 1-5 LASK Linz (Bundesliga).
- 2026-03-13: LASK Linz 0-0 Hartberg (Bundesliga).
- 2025-12-06: Hartberg 2-2 LASK Linz (Bundesliga).
Hartberg's home record is 1 win and 2 losses, with 3 goals scored and 6 conceded. LASK's away record is 2 wins and 1 loss, with 6 goals scored and 3 conceded.
Hartberg's only home win came against Ried, but they lost to Austria Vienna and Sturm Graz. LASK's away wins were against Wolfsberger AC and Austria Vienna, so they have beaten similar opponents on the road.
- Hartberg home: 1W 0D 2L, 3 goals for, 6 against.
- LASK away: 2W 0D 1L, 6 goals for, 3 against.
- Hartberg lost 0-2 to Austria Vienna and 0-2 to Sturm Graz at home.
TSV Hartberg defender L. Pazourek missed the 13 September draw at WSG Tirol through injury.
His availability against LASK is unresolved, leaving Hartberg's full-back selection uncertain. If he remains out, the home side loses a defensive option on the flank, though the club has not confirmed his status.
- Hartberg said Luca Pazourek could not make the trip to Tirol because of injury.
- The report covered Hartberg’s 2-2 Bundesliga draw at WSG Tirol on 13 September.
To watchSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 22:16 · Europe/BucharestTSV Hartberg match reporttsv-hartberg-fussball.at · 13 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
LASK Linz's superior league form, goal difference, and recent H2H dominance make them clear favourites, supported by motivation to stay top and Hartberg's home struggles.
- LASK Linz are top of the Bundesliga with 15 points from 6 games (5W, 0D, 1L), while TSV Hartberg are 6th with 7 points (2W, 1D, 3L).
- LASK Linz have won 4 of their last 5 league matches, scoring 16 goals and conceding only 4 in 6 games.
- TSV Hartberg have lost 2 of their last 3 home league matches, conceding 6 goals in 3 home games.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, LASK Linz have won 2, drawn 2, and lost 1, including a 5-1 away win in April 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLASK LinzEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given LASK's strong form and Hartberg's inconsistency, the double chance of draw or away win covers the most likely outcomes.
- LASK Linz have not lost to TSV Hartberg in 4 of the last 5 meetings (2 wins, 2 draws).
- TSV Hartberg have won only 1 of their last 5 league matches (DWWLL).
- LASK Linz have lost only 1 of their last 6 league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or LASK LinzEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite Hartberg's strong first-half record, LASK's overall superiority and recent H2H edge give them a slight advantage to lead at the break.
- LASK Linz have led at half-time in 40% of their league matches.
- TSV Hartberg have led at half-time in 60% of their league matches, but their recent form is poor.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, LASK Linz led at half-time in 2 matches, while Hartberg led in 1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLASK LinzEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LASK's superior fitness and attacking depth often lead to stronger second-half performances, as seen in recent matches.
- LASK Linz have won the second half in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
- TSV Hartberg have lost the second half in 3 of their last 6 league matches.
- LASK Linz scored 5 goals in the second half of their last H2H meeting (5-1 win).
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostLASK LinzEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
If LASK take an early lead, their strong defence and game management make it likely they will hold on for the win.
- LASK Linz have led at half-time and won the match in 2 of their last 6 league games.
- TSV Hartberg have not won a league match when trailing at half-time this season.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, LASK Linz led at half-time and won the match once (5-1 in April 2026).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLASK Linz/LASK LinzEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and the H2H history shows a strong trend towards goals.
- TSV Hartberg's league matches average 2.8 goals per game (7 scored, 10 conceded in 6).
- LASK Linz's league matches average 3.3 goals per game (16 scored, 4 conceded in 6).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 matches had over 2.5 goals, including a 5-1 and two 2-2 draws.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hartberg's ability to score at home and LASK's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- TSV Hartberg have scored in 5 of their 6 league matches this season.
- LASK Linz have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 6 league games.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, both teams scored in 3 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start quickly, and the H2H pattern shows frequent early goals.
- TSV Hartberg average 1.3 first-half goals per league match.
- LASK Linz average 1.0 first-half goals per league match.
- In 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings, there was at least one first-half goal, with 3 matches having 2+ first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show a tendency to score after the break, and the H2H data supports a high-scoring second half.
- TSV Hartberg's last league match saw 4 second-half goals (2-2 draw vs WSG Wattens).
- LASK Linz have scored 10 of their 16 league goals in the second half.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 4 matches had at least 2 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average suggests a total above 9.5 is plausible.
- TSV Hartberg average 3.8 corners per league match, while LASK Linz average 6.6 corners per league match.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is 10.4.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, corner data is not available for all matches, but recent league games show high corner counts.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
LASK's high shot volume and Hartberg's tendency to allow shots on target make over 8.5 total shots on target a reasonable expectation.
- TSV Hartberg average 3.3 shots on target per league match.
- LASK Linz average 6.9 shots on target per league match.
- Combined average shots on target in matches involving these teams is 10.2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to be competitive, and both teams have shown a tendency to pick up cards, making over 3.5 cards possible.
- TSV Hartberg average 1.6 yellow cards per league match.
- LASK Linz average 1.6 yellow cards per league match.
- Combined average yellow cards in matches involving these teams is 3.2, with occasional red cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%