TSV Hartberg00 – 2Sturm Graz2

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Despite Hartberg's strong first-half home record, Sturm's historical edge and lower trailing rate give them a slight advantage to lead at halftime.

• Sturm Graz have led at halftime in 40% of their last 15 matches, compared to Hartberg's 53%.
• In the last H2H meeting, Sturm Graz led 2-1 at halftime.
• Hartberg have trailed at halftime in 27% of their last 15 matches, while Sturm Graz have trailed in only 13%.
• Sturm Graz's superior overall quality and H2H record suggest they are more likely to be ahead at the break.

BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSturm GrazEstimated chance45%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams have shown a tendency for high-scoring matches recently, and the H2H history strongly points to goals, making over 2.5 a solid expectation.

• 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings have seen over 2.5 goals.
• Sturm Graz average 2.5 goals scored per match over their last 15, while Hartberg average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
• Hartberg's last 5 Bundesliga matches have averaged 3.2 total goals.
• Sturm Graz's last 5 away matches across all competitions have averaged 3.0 total goals.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Hartberg's ability to find the net at home combined with Sturm's occasional defensive lapses on the road suggests both teams are likely to score.

• Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
• Hartberg have scored in 4 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
• Sturm Graz have conceded in 4 of their last 6 away matches across all competitions.
• Hartberg average 1.7 goals scored per match over their last 15, while Sturm Graz concede 1.1 per match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both teams tend to start matches with attacking intent, and the derby atmosphere could lead to an open first half, though the evidence is not overwhelming.

• Hartberg average 1.0 first-half goals scored per match over their last 15, while Sturm Graz average 0.9.
• Hartberg have led at halftime in 53% of their last 15 matches, Sturm Graz in 40%.
• In the last H2H meeting, there were 3 first-half goals (Hartberg 1-2 Sturm Graz at HT).
• Sturm Graz's last 5 away matches have seen an average of 1.4 first-half goals.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Sturm's attacking volume and Hartberg's tendency to concede shots on target at home suggest a combined total over 8.5 is plausible.

• Sturm Graz average 6.1 shots on target per match over their last 15, while Hartberg average 3.1.
• In the last H2H meeting, there were 14 shots on target total (Hartberg 6, Sturm Graz 8).
• Sturm Graz's last 5 away matches have averaged 9.8 total shots on target.
• Hartberg's last 5 home matches have averaged 8.4 total shots on target.