Rapid Vienna3TSV Hartberg1

HT 2–0Fri 16 Oct 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 9–14On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 1–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 21:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Rapid lead the Bundesliga and have won all four home league games, but Hartberg arrive unbeaten in six and won 2-0 in Vienna in April.

Rapid are the likelier winners, yet 1.25 for that home win asks more than the form justifies. The prices that offer something are 3.40 for Hartberg to avoid defeat and 5.75 for the draw.

Context

Radulović joined Hartberg on loan from Rapid and marked his debut on 20 September 2026 by scoring in a 3-3 draw with LASK, a result that denied the champions a win. He now prepares to face the club that holds his contract, giving the fixture a direct parent-club subplot beyond the table. No source states whether his loan terms allow him to face Rapid, which is the one piece of uncertainty around his involvement.
- Journalist Alexander Huber described Radulović as a Rapid loanee who made his Hartberg debut on 20 September 2026 and helped deny LASK a win in a 3-3 draw.
- Hartberg's official account reported Radulović scoring on 46 minutes against LASK after a Jed Drew assist.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 21:49 · Europe/Bucharest
Hoffmann scored three times in Hartberg's 4-3 win over Austria Lustenau on 11 October 2026 and ranks second in the Bundesliga for shots on target per 90, behind only Salzburg's Karim Konaté. That makes him the focal point of a Hartberg attack visiting the league leaders. The counterweight is the level of opposition: much of his output has come against mid-table sides, while Rapid kept clean sheets in their last three league matches, including a 2-0 win away to LASK.
- Hartberg's official account reported Hoffmann's hat-trick in the 4-3 home win over Austria Lustenau on 11 October 2026.
- Scouting Stats listed Hoffmann second in the 2026/27 Bundesliga for shots on target per 90, at 1.80 behind only Salzburg's Karim Konaté.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 21:49 · Europe/Bucharest
Rapid's 2-0 win at champions LASK on 11 October 2026 moved them to the top of the Bundesliga and was their first victory at the Linz Raiffeisen-Arena. It frames the Hartberg game as a leader protecting its position against a side that has climbed to fifth, rather than a routine home fixture. Rapid have lost only one of eight league games this season, but that defeat was a 5-1 home collapse to Salzburg, so the lead is not yet comfortable.
- heute.at reported that Rapid's 2-0 win at LASK on 11 October 2026 consolidated their lead at the top of the table.
- SK Rapid stated the result was the club's first win at the Linz Raiffeisen-Arena.
ConfirmedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 21:49 · Europe/Bucharest
Thorup took charge at Rapid in late December 2025 and has moved the team toward a possession-based style that local analysts credit for the run to first place, with Yusuf Demir saying the coach changed the club's way of thinking. That matters here because Rapid are expected to dominate the ball against a fifth-placed Hartberg side, so the fixture tests their ability to break down an organised opponent. An automatic contract-extension clause, reported from a Danish interview, signals continuity. The style descriptions come from journalists and supporters rather than the coach, so the tactical detail remains loosely defined.
- abseits.at reported Rapid fans were impressed by Thorup's attractive playing style after the 2-0 win at LASK on 11 October 2026.
- Yusuf Demir said Thorup changed "the way the club views football" and "our way of thinking".
- abseits.at reported a clause in Thorup's contract that would renew it automatically.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 21:49 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.15fair 1.16

BetBugs 86% · Market 87%

−1.0ppshort

Both teams are involved in first halves with goals often enough that a goalless opening half is unlikely.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.35fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 74.1%

−2.1ppshort

Both teams score regularly and their recent games have produced plenty of goals, pointing to a high-scoring match.

First Half WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Rapid Vienna

1.60fair 2.17

BetBugs 46% · Market 62.5%

−16.5ppshort

Rapid start strongly at home and have a good record of scoring before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Rapid have been the strongest side in the league and are especially dominant at home, so they are clear favourites.
- Rapid are top of the Bundesliga with 7 wins from 8 (GF 23, GA 7), and 4 wins from 4 at home (GF 15, GA 1).
- Rapid's home matches this season average 3.83 goals scored and 0.5 conceded across 6 tracked home games.
- Hartberg sit sixth with 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 8 league games.
- In the last five head-to-head meetings Hartberg won twice, Rapid once, with two draws.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRapid ViennaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.60
The read
Rapid start strongly at home and have a good record of scoring before the break.
- Rapid average 2.17 first-half goals scored at home and 0.33 conceded across 6 home games.
- Rapid lead at half-time more often than not, with 13 wins in 15 competitive matches.
- Hartberg concede 0.7 first-half goals per competitive match.
- Hartberg themselves average 1.2 first-half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonRapid ViennaEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rapid score regularly after the break and defend well at home in the second half.
- Rapid average 1.67 second-half goals scored at home and 0.17 conceded.
- Rapid average 1.8 second-half goals overall.
- Hartberg average 1.89 second-half goals scored and 0.78 conceded.
- Rapid's 11 October win came with both goals after half-time.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostRapid ViennaEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rapid have been the strongest side in the league and are especially dominant at home, so they are clear favourites. Hartberg's habit of scoring in tight games keeps a share of the draw outcomes open.
- Rapid are top of the Bundesliga with 7 wins from 8 (GF 23, GA 7), and 4 wins from 4 at home (GF 15, GA 1).
- Rapid's home matches this season average 3.83 goals scored and 0.5 conceded across 6 tracked home games.
- Two of the last five meetings between these clubs ended level.
- Hartberg have drawn 2 of 8 league games this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonRapid Vienna or DrawEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rapid start strongly at home and have a good record of scoring before the break. First halves often stay level longer than full matches, and both teams have recent goalless opening periods.
- Rapid average 2.17 first-half goals scored at home and 0.33 conceded across 6 home games.
- Rapid lead at half-time more often than not, with 13 wins in 15 competitive matches.
- Rapid's last match at LASK was 0-0 at half-time before a 2-0 win.
- Hartberg drew the first half in several recent games.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonRapid Vienna or DrawEstimated chance79%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35
The read
Both teams score regularly and their recent games have produced plenty of goals, pointing to a high-scoring match.
- Rapid's home games average 3.83 goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Hartberg's competitive matches average 2.1 scored and 1.7 conceded.
- Hartberg's last two league games finished 4-3 and 3-3.
- Rapid have scored in all 15 tracked competitive matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hartberg's consistent scoring gives them a real chance of finding the net, though Rapid's home defence is strong.
- Hartberg have scored in all 6 of their recent competitive matches.
- Hartberg have both teams scoring in 6 of 10 competitive matches.
- Rapid have kept clean sheets in 4 of 6 home matches.
- Rapid conceded only 2 goals across 6 home games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Both teams are involved in first halves with goals often enough that a goalless opening half is unlikely.
- Rapid average 2.17 first-half goals at home.
- Rapid have failed to score before half-time in only a small share of matches.
- Hartberg average 1.2 first-half goals and concede 0.7.
- Rapid's last match was 0-0 at half-time, a notable exception.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance86%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score after the break, making two or more second-half goals more likely than not.
- Rapid average 1.67 second-half goals at home.
- Hartberg average 1.89 second-half goals scored.
- Hartberg's last two games produced four and four second-half goals.
- Rapid's home second-half goals-against average is 0.17.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Rapid score freely at home and should manage at least two goals against a conceding Hartberg side.
- Rapid score 3.83 goals per home match across 6 home games.
- Rapid scored 15 goals in 4 home league matches.
- Rapid have scored in all 15 tracked competitive matches.
- Hartberg concede 1.7 goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonRapid Vienna over 1.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hartberg's consistent scoring makes it more likely than not that Rapid concede.
- Hartberg have scored in all 6 recent competitive matches.
- Hartberg scored 4 goals at home on 11 October.
- Rapid kept clean sheets in 4 of 6 home matches.
- Hartberg average 2.1 goals per competitive match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonTSV Hartberg to scoreEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hartberg concede a high number of corners while Rapid generate a healthy share, keeping the total near the line.
- Rapid average 5.31 corners and concede 3.0 per match.
- Hartberg average 3.5 corners and concede 9.25 per match.
- Hartberg's opponents averaged 14.67 corners across 3 away games.
- Rapid average 5.5 corners at home.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Modest card averages on both sides point slightly towards the under.
- Hartberg's opponents average only 0.83 yellow cards.
- Rapid's opponents average 1.83 yellow cards.
- Rapid average 1.67 yellow cards per match.
- Hartberg have one red card in their sample.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostUnder 3.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rapid's high home shot volume plus a Hartberg side that concedes plenty of shots points to a busy match.
- Rapid average 16.69 shots and concede 10.62 per match.
- Rapid average 19.5 shots at home while conceding 7.83.
- Hartberg average 10.0 shots and concede 18.88 per match.
- Hartberg's last match produced 18 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 26.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Rapid's accuracy at home plus Hartberg's concession rate keeps the combined figure around the line.
- Rapid average 6.85 shots on target and concede 3.31 per match.
- Rapid average 8.5 shots on target at home.
- Hartberg average 4.38 shots on target and concede 5.5.
- Hartberg's last match produced 12 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 11.5Estimated chance55%