Nashville4Sporting Kansas City0

HT 3–0Thu 15 Oct 2026, 00:30 Predictions graded

Predictions9–660%

Edges1–614%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 18–8On targetOn target 11–1CornersCorners 7–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 17:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Nashville, unbeaten at home, host a Sporting Kansas City side trying to avoid the league's worst record, with Sporting KC scoring freely through André Luiz.

Nashville should win, but 1.25 for that result is shorter than their form justifies. Sporting Kansas City level or ahead at half-time at 2.4, under 2.5 goals at 3.5 and the draw at 7 are among the quotes that offer something; the 1.14 on a first-half goal and 1.65 on both teams scoring do not.

Context

Nashville sits top of the overall table and in the Supporters' Shield race, so a home win keeps a first major trophy within reach this week. The Shield is not decided by this match alone: Vancouver must also drop points in one of its next two games for Nashville to clinch, so Wednesday changes the trophy timeline rather than guaranteeing anything. With a second game at San Jose on the weekend, Nashville also has a plausible reason to manage minutes, which is the main route through which this stake could touch team selection.
- Nashville would clinch the Supporters' Shield this week with wins over Sporting Kansas City on Wednesday and San Jose on Saturday, provided Vancouver drops points in one of its next two matches.
- Nashville leads the Supporters' Shield race over Vancouver and is described as closing in on history.
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Nashville is the only MLS side unbeaten at home in 2026, with 13 wins and one draw from 14 league games at GEODIS Park, and that run is the clearest reason this fixture is framed as a mismatch. Sporting Kansas City arrives near the foot of the table and has leaked goals on the road. The record is a genuine edge, but it describes a season-long condition rather than this week's team, and Kansas City's recent scoring form is the specific threat to it.
- Nashville is the only MLS team unbeaten at home in 2026, with 13 wins and one draw at GEODIS Park.
- Nashville's home unbeaten run reached 13 matches with a 3-0 win over Chicago Fire on 19 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Nashville's 19-3-6 record has the club one win from a 20th victory and on course for the MLS single-season points record, milestones the franchise has not reached before. Those targets sit alongside the Supporters' Shield race and give the fixture a historic edge for the home side. The counterpoint is that records aggregate a full season and do not predict one night; Nashville has won both narrowly and by wide margins this year, so the chase matters more to what the team is playing for than to how it sets up.
- Nashville enters the match with a 19-3-6 record and needs one more win for a 20th this season.
- Nashville is also chasing the MLS single-season points record.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:05 · Europe/BucharestGazette textwww.gazettextra.com · 13 Oct 2026
André Luiz has been Sporting Kansas City's most reliable scorer since arriving, with seven goals and one assist in the club's last five matches, including a double in the 3-3 draw with Portland. His output is the clearest reason the visitors can hurt a Nashville side that has otherwise dominated at home. The limitation is specific: those goals have come in open, end-to-end games, and Nashville's home matches have tended to be controlled, so his chances may be rarer and more isolated here.
- André Luiz has seven goals and one assist in Sporting Kansas City's last five matches.
- André Luiz scored twice in the 3-3 draw with Portland, and his first five club matches produced five goals and one assist.
- André Luiz started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 401 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 17:05 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result5 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville have won 13 of 14 home league games and lead the table, while Sporting KC have lost 11 of 14 away.
- Nashville are 19-3-6 with 63 points, first in MLS; Sporting KC are 6-18-4 with 22 points.
- Nashville are unbeaten at home (13 wins, 1 draw) with 41 goals for and 12 against.
- Sporting KC's away record is 3 wins, 0 draws, 11 defeats, conceding 39 goals.
- Sporting KC list five defenders as missing, including multiple hamstring and groin injuries.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNashvilleEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nashville start home games strongly and Sporting KC concede before the break on the road.
- Nashville average 1.29 first-half goals at home and 0.29 against.
- Sporting KC average 1.43 first-half goals conceded away.
- Nashville scored first-half goals in 5 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonNashvilleEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Nashville score freely after the break at home while Sporting KC concede late on the road.
- Nashville average 1.57 second-half goals at home and 0.43 against.
- Sporting KC average 1.0 second-half goals conceded away.
- Nashville scored second-half goals in three of their last four matches.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonNashvilleEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville have won 13 of 14 home league games and lead the table, while Sporting KC have lost 11 of 14 away. A draw is possible if Sporting KC repeat recent scoring form against a Nashville side that has rarely been held at home.
- Nashville are 19-3-6 with 63 points, first in MLS; Sporting KC are 6-18-4 with 22 points.
- Nashville are unbeaten at home (13 wins, 1 draw) with 41 goals for and 12 against.
- Nashville have drawn 3 of their last 15 matches.
- Nashville's only dropped home points this season came in a single draw.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNashville or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville start home games strongly and Sporting KC concede before the break on the road. Nashville often lead by a single goal or reach half-time level, making a level first half plausible.
- Nashville average 1.29 first-half goals at home and 0.29 against.
- Sporting KC average 1.43 first-half goals conceded away.
- Nashville's first halves included a 0-0 and a 1-1 recently.
- Nashville average 0.29 first-half goals conceded at home.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonNashville or DrawEstimated chance85%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville score heavily at home and Sporting KC's recent games have been high-scoring at both ends.
- Nashville average 2.86 goals at home and 0.71 against.
- Sporting KC away matches average 1.29 scored and 2.43 conceded per game in the tracked split.
- Sporting KC's last six matches produced 4, 3, 2, 7, 4 and 7 total goals.
- Nashville scored three or more in two of their last three home matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Sporting KC's attack, led by an in-form André Luiz, gives them a fair chance of scoring despite Nashville's strong home defence.
- Both teams scored in 10 of Sporting KC's 15 league matches.
- Sporting KC scored in 5 of 7 away matches.
- Nashville kept 3 clean sheets in 7 home matches.
- André Luiz has seven goals in Sporting KC's last five games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville have regularly scored two or more at home, and Sporting KC concede heavily on the road.
- Nashville average 2.86 goals per home game.
- Nashville scored in 6 of 7 home matches.
- Nashville scored 2 and 3 in their two most recent home league wins.
- Sporting KC concede 2.43 per away game in the tracked split.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonNashville over 1.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting KC have found the net in most away games and carry a scorer in strong form.
- Sporting KC scored in 11 of 15 league matches.
- Sporting KC scored in 5 of 7 away matches.
- Nashville conceded in 4 of 7 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSporting Kansas City to scoreEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
Both teams have been involved in first halves with goals almost every week.
- Nashville's last six matches produced a first-half goal in five.
- Sporting KC scored first-half goals in each of their last six matches.
- Nashville average 1.29 first-half goals at home.
- Sporting KC average 1.43 first-half goals conceded away.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance79%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides' recent second halves have produced multiple goals often enough to clear this line.
- Nashville's home second halves average 2.0 total goals.
- Sporting KC's away second halves average 1.43 total goals.
- Sporting KC's last six matches produced second-half totals of 3, 2, 0, 4, 2 and 2.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville's home corner counts tend to sit just below the line.
- Nashville's home corner totals average 9.57.
- Nashville's recent matches produced corner totals of 7, 11, 5, 9, 7 and 7.
- Sporting KC's recent away corner total against Seattle was 17.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 10.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Nashville's home shot volume plus Sporting KC's open games point to a busy match.
- Nashville average 15.71 shots at home.
- Sporting KC average 13.14 shots away and 17.29 against away.
- Nashville's recent matches produced shot totals of 36, 34, 23, 32, 27 and 19.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderlostOver 26.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams put several efforts on target, and recent Nashville games regularly clear this line.
- Nashville average 6.57 shots on target at home.
- Sporting KC average 4.71 shots on target away.
- Nashville's recent matches produced on-target totals of 16, 14, 6, 8, 12 and 3.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined booking averages sit just above the line, and Sporting KC's disciplinary record adds to the count.
- Nashville average 1.87 yellow cards and their opponents 1.53.
- Sporting KC average 1.87 yellow cards and their opponents 1.6.
- Sporting KC have collected 6 red cards in 15 league matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance56%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.25 price requires 80.0%, above our 71.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Nashville: 4/5 recent winner projections matched

4 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Nashville matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Nashville5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·Major League Soccer