TPS Turku0Jaro1

HT 0–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 21–19On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 7–9

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 18:02 · Europe/Bucharest

Jaro have not won away all season and are in a relegation fight; TPS close their home campaign at Veritas Stadion with the better record in the fixture.

The home win is the likelier outcome, though TPS have gone five league games without a win. Two quoted prices hold up: TPS at 2.05 and at least one side failing to score, also 2.05. Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 offers nothing.

Context

Jaro sit inside the six-team relegation group whose closing round on 17 October pairs them with IFK Mariehamn to decide which club drops straight out of the Veikkausliiga. That makes this Turku fixture one of the last chances to bank points before the decider, so the visitors' approach is tied to survival rather than routine mid-table football. The qualification is that the decisive comparison is with Mariehamn, so Jaro's intensity may be shaped as much by the wider table picture as by anything TPS do.
- The Veikkausliiga relegation group is a six-team, single round-robin stage running from 8 September to 17 October 2026.
- The final round on 17 October 2026 pairs FF Jaro with IFK Mariehamn, with direct relegation from the Veikkausliiga at stake.
- This match at Veritas Stadion on 10 October 2026 is Jaro's penultimate game of the season.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:59 · Europe/Bucharest
TPS's defender has just completed an international window with Benin, playing from the 73rd minute against Argentina on 6 October, five days after being carried off and checked in hospital during Benin's win over Mauritania. TPS have not played since 19 September, so how they reintegrate a player who has travelled from West Africa is the main defensive question on their final home game of the season. The scare passed and he returned to the pitch, so this is a freshness and preparation point rather than a confirmed absence or a known fitness problem.
- Charlemagne Azongnitode came on as a 73rd-minute substitute for Benin against Argentina on 6 October 2026, a match billed as Lionel Messi's farewell appearance for the national team.
- Azongnitode was carried off on a stretcher in the closing minutes of Benin's 2-1 win over Mauritania on 29 September 2026 and taken to hospital for precautionary examinations.
- He regained consciousness and rejoined Benin's squad the following day.
ReportedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 17:59 · Europe/Bucharest
TPS's home record and Jaro's away record are the two extremes meeting in this relegation-group fixture.
The season-long split is lopsided: TPS have lost twice at home all year, while Jaro have not won on the road and concede about 2.5 goals per away game, which makes the hosts the clear sporting favourite. TPS's last home match was a 0-3 defeat to Ilves on 19 September and they have not won in five league games, so the home record is historical strength rather than current form.
- Veikkausliiga standings fetched 7 October 2026: TPS 22 games, 8 wins, 7 draws, 7 losses, 28 goals for, 23 against; home record 11 games, 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, 18 for, 9 against.
- Same standings data: Jaro 22 games, 3 wins, 6 draws, 13 losses, 18 goals for, 44 against; away record 11 games, 0 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses, 4 for, 28 against.
- Form strings at 7 October 2026: TPS LLDDD, Jaro DDLLL.
Four clean sheets in eight home matches, with only four goals conceded, is the strongest support for TPS holding Jaro out here. The counter is that TPS won only three of those eight home matches and conceded three in the last of them, the 0-3 defeat to Ilves on 19 September 2026.
- TPS's tracked home window, 17 June to 19 September 2026: 8 matches, 3 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses, 5 goals scored, 4 conceded, 4 clean sheets.
- Both teams scored in only 3 of those 8 TPS home matches.
- TPS's most recent home match in the window was a 0-3 defeat to Ilves on 19 September 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.05
The read
TPS have a strong home record while Jaro have not won away all season.
- TPS home record: 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses.
- Jaro away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses.
- TPS beat Jaro 3-2 at Veritas Stadion in June 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTPS TurkuEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Both teams have often been level at the break recently.
- TPS were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Jaro were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- TPS home first-half average is 0.875 goals for and 0.75 against.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance47%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often produce low-scoring second halves with few goals.
- TPS second-half average at home is 0.5 goals for and 0.5 against.
- Jaro away second-half average is 0.143 goals for and 1.286 against.
- Five of TPS's last six matches were level in the second half.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance46%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
TPS have a strong home record while Jaro have not won away all season. Both teams have drawn frequently in recent weeks and the last meeting was level.
- TPS home record: 7 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses.
- Jaro away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses.
- TPS have drawn 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Jaro have drawn 2 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostTPS Turku or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
TPS create more before half-time at home and Jaro often trail early away. Both teams have often been level at the break recently.
- TPS average 0.875 first-half goals at home.
- Jaro concede 1.286 first-half goals away.
- TPS were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
- Jaro were level at half-time in 3 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonTPS Turku or DrawEstimated chance82%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.78
The read
Both teams' home and away goal averages point to more than two goals.
- TPS home matches average 2.63 total goals.
- Jaro away matches average 3.00 total goals.
- The June 2026 meeting produced 5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.05
The read
Jaro's low away scoring and TPS's home clean sheets make a shutout likely.
- Jaro have scored 4 goals in 11 away matches.
- TPS kept 4 clean sheets in 8 home matches.
- Jaro failed to score in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jaro's away scoring record strongly points to fewer than two goals.
- Jaro have 4 goals in 11 away matches.
- Jaro scored 2 goals in their last 6 matches.
- TPS kept 4 clean sheets in 8 home matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonJaro under 1.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
TPS's home scoring and Jaro's away record make a Jaro clean sheet unlikely.
- TPS score 1.375 goals per home match.
- Jaro have 0 clean sheets in 7 away matches.
- TPS scored 3 goals in the June meeting at this venue.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostTPS Turku to scoreEstimated chance80%

Match stats4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away corner averages point to a total near or above ten.
- TPS home corners average 5.75 for and 4.75 against.
- Jaro away corners average 4.75 for and 5.5 against.
- TPS's last three matches with corner data produced 12, 8 and 11 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Home and away shot averages for both teams are well above the line.
- TPS home matches average 28.25 total shots.
- Jaro away matches average 29.0 total shots.
- TPS's last match with shot data had 41 shots.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 24.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away shots-on-target averages are above the line.
- TPS home matches average 8.75 total shots on target.
- Jaro away matches average 10.75 total shots on target.
- Jaro's last three matches with data had 8, 6 and 8 shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent card totals for both teams are usually above three.
- TPS home matches average 3.5 total cards.
- Jaro away matches average 2.25 total cards.
- Three of TPS's last three matches with card data had 3, 4 and 6 cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%