IFK Mariehamn1Ilves1

HT 0–0Sat 10 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions10–567%

Edges4–267%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 16–16On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 18:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Mariehamn's last home game of the season falls in the relegation group's penultimate round, and Ilves — three straight wins behind them — are the likelier winners, though a one-win-in-11 away league record keeps it close.

Four prices carry enough to be worth a look: both teams to score — no at 2.5, the half-time draw at 2.4, no first-half goals at 3.5 and under 2.5 goals at 2.3.

Context

September's split dropped the bottom six into a five-round Karsintasarja, and this is its penultimate round. Mariehamn are in the direct-relegation picture, with their final-round trip to FF Jaro on 17 October set to decide which club drops automatically. That puts the emphasis on their last home game of the season as a chance to move clear before the decider, while Ilves arrive having won their group opener against FF Jaro. The pressure is genuine, but the closing round still governs the outcome, so this match shapes rather than settles the drop.
- IFK Mariehamn and Ilves both play in the six-team Karsintasarja, the lower of the two groups formed when the Veikkausliiga split in September.
- The Karsintasarja is a single round-robin of five rounds; this fixture is round 26 and the final round is on 17 October.
- The closing round, FF Jaro against IFK Mariehamn, decides which club is relegated directly from the Veikkausliiga.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 18:35 · Europe/Bucharest
Mariehamn have conceded only four goals across those seven home matches.
Only one of those seven had both teams scoring, so the pattern at Mariehamn this window has been a low-scoring game decided by a single goal or a clean sheet rather than a shootout.
- Mariehamn home split, 23 June to 12 September 2026: 7 matches, 3 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses, 4 goals scored, 4 conceded, 3 clean sheets.
- Both teams scored in one of those seven home matches.
- Mariehamn averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per home game across the seven.
Ilves scored three goals in Turku without controlling the shot count.
The most recent Ilves away win was built on a strong finish after leading 1-0 at half-time, not on dominance of the ball — a single 90 minutes, so it describes one performance rather than a settled away pattern.
- Veikkausliiga, 19 September 2026, away to Turku PS: Ilves won 3-0 with 13 shots (6 on target) to TPS's 28 (8 on target) and 3 corners to 9.
- Ilves led 1-0 at half-time and added two second-half goals.
Ilves' 2-0 win in Tampere on 9 August is the most recent result between the sides and the only head-to-head reference for this meeting. The game turned inside the first half, with Hytönen opening the scoring and Kanga adding a stoppage-time penalty. That fixture came in the regular season rather than the relegation group, so it belongs to a different phase of the season and is background for the rematch rather than a reliable guide to it.
- Ilves beat IFK Mariehamn 2-0 at Tammela on 9 August 2026.
- Teemu Hytönen scored in the 25th minute and Jardell Kanga converted a stoppage-time penalty to send Ilves in 2-0 up at half-time.
- IFK Mariehamn's Foster Gyamfi took the game's first booking in the 24th minute.
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 18:35 · Europe/BucharestVeikkausliigawww.veikkausliiga.com · 9 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.20
The read
Ilves have the better league record and arrive on a three-match winning run with a solid defensive average.
- Ilves are 9th on 25 points, Mariehamn 12th on 14, from 22 league matches each
- Ilves have won their last three matches, scoring eight and conceding one
- Ilves average 0.93 goals conceded across 14 competitive matches in this window
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostIlvesEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low, making a level half-time score the single most likely outcome.
- Combined first-half goal expectations for the two sides sit just above one goal per game
- Mariehamn's first-half goal difference at home is 0.43 for and 0.43 against
- Three of Ilves' last six matches were level at half-time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves involving these two teams have been relatively low-scoring, making a level half the leading outcome.
- Mariehamn's second-half home totals average 1.29 goals per match
- Ilves' second-half away totals average 1.0 goal per match
- Both sides have mixed second-half records across the last six matches
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance43%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Mariehamn draw a large share of home games and held Ilves here in April, while both sides are in a tight relegation group. Ilves have the better league record and arrive on a three-match winning run with a solid defensive average.
- Mariehamn have drawn 4 of 11 home league games and 5 of 22 overall
- Ilves have drawn 1 of 14 competitive matches in this window
- Ilves are 9th on 25 points, Mariehamn 12th on 14, from 22 league matches each
- Ilves have won their last three matches, scoring eight and conceding one
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or IlvesEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring rates are low, making a level half-time score the single most likely outcome. Ilves have scored more first-half goals away than Mariehamn manage at home and led at half-time in the last meeting.
- Combined first-half goal expectations for the two sides sit just above one goal per game
- Mariehamn's first-half goal difference at home is 0.43 for and 0.43 against
- Ilves average 0.83 first-half goals away and 0.67 against
- Mariehamn average 0.8 first-half goals against overall
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or IlvesEstimated chance80%

Goals3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both defences have given up chances and both attacks are scoring regularly, so three or more goals is a realistic outcome.
- Mariehamn concede 2.0 goals per game across 15 matches; Ilves score 1.5 per game
- Mariehamn's last six matches produced 17 goals, Ilves' 18
- Mariehamn's home matches average 2.14 total goals, Ilves' away matches 2.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.50
The read
Both clubs keep a fair number of clean sheets and scoring on both sides in the same match has been uncommon.
- Only 1 of Mariehamn's 7 home matches in this window had both teams scoring
- Ilves kept 4 clean sheets in 14 competitive matches
- Both teams scored in 2 of Ilves' last 6 and 3 of Mariehamn's last 6
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mariehamn's home scoring rate sits below one goal per game and Ilves concede less than a goal a match on average.
- Mariehamn average 0.86 goals per home match in this window
- Their overall average is 1.0 goal per game over 15 matches
- Ilves concede 0.75 goals per home match and 0.93 overall
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonIFK Mariehamn under 1.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ilves' away scoring rate is modest and Mariehamn have recently been keeping opponents out at home.
- Ilves' away split shows 3 goals scored across 6 matches
- Their overall average is 1.5 goals per game, but their away average is 1.33
- Mariehamn kept three clean sheets in their last six matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonIlves under 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half goal rates of both teams make at least one goal before the break the more likely outcome.
- Mariehamn's matches average 1.27 first-half goals; Ilves' matches 1.07
- Five of Mariehamn's last six matches had a first-half goal; four of Ilves' last six did
- Mariehamn concede 0.8 first-half goals per game overall
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring rates for both teams are low, so one or both failing to score before the break is the likely case.
- Mariehamn's home first-half concession rate is 0.43 goals per match
- Ilves' away first-half concession rate is 0.67 goals per match
- Three of Ilves' last six and three of Mariehamn's last six were goalless or one-sided at the break
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance81%

Match stats3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches have produced corner totals near or above the line, with Ilves' opponents in particular generating many.
- Mariehamn's matches average 9.9 corners (4.5 to 5.38), from 8 matches
- Ilves' matches average 8.6 corners (2.6 to 6.0), from 5 matches
- Ilves' two away samples gave 2 corners to 9; Mariehamn's three home samples 4.3 to 7
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recorded shot totals for these two clubs have regularly been above the line, driven by the number of shots their opponents take.
- Mariehamn's matches average 21.9 total shots from 9 matches
- Ilves' matches average 32.7 total shots from 3 matches
- All six recent matches with shot data exceeded 22.5 total shots
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 22.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams allow plenty of shots on target and the recorded totals sit comfortably above the line.
- Mariehamn's matches average 7.67 shots on target (2.44 to 5.22) from 9 matches
- Ilves' matches average 10.6 shots on target (4.4 to 6.2) from 5 matches
- Five of the six recent matches with data had 7 or more shots on target
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 6.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both clubs' matches average around three cards and the group context adds tension to a penultimate relegation round.
- Mariehamn's matches average 3.33 cards (1.78 to 1.56) from 9 matches
- Ilves' matches average 3.0 cards (1.0 to 2.0) from 5 matches
- Mariehamn's most recent match had 7 cards including a red; Ilves' last three had 3 each
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%