St. Mirren0Dundee United3

HT 0–3Sat 19 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–742%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 10–13On targetOn target 0–9CornersCorners 4–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Sep 2026, 17:05 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is on St.

Mirren or Draw in the double chance market at 1.45, with a small positive edge. Avoid over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, as the market prices them too high relative to the model's estimates.

Context

St. Mirren are 4th in the Premiership with 10 points from 6 matches, while Dundee United are 11th with 5 points.
The recent head-to-head record favours St. Mirren. They won 2-0 at home on 6 December 2025 and 3-1 away on 25 October 2025. Dundee United's only win in this stretch came at home on 3 March 2026, a 2-1 result. This pattern suggests St. Mirren have found a way to beat Dundee United, but the most recent meeting in May 2026 ended 1-1, so the edge may be narrowing.
- St. Mirren won 2-0 at home on 6 December 2025.
- St. Mirren won 3-1 away on 25 October 2025.
- Dundee United won 2-1 at home on 3 March 2026.
- The most recent meeting on 17 May 2026 ended 1-1.
Dundee United midfielder E. Agyei is suspended after the club's appeal against his red card was dismissed.
He serves the second match of a two-game ban, so Dundee United must select without him in Paisley. Agyei started three of the five recent fixtures with available lineups, removing a regular midfield option.
- Dundee United said a Scottish FA fast-track judicial panel dismissed its appeal against Emmanuel Agyei's red card.
- The club said the resulting two-game suspension took effect from the 5 September match against Falkirk.
- Dundee United's Falkirk team sheet did not include E. Agyei, and the club named the 19 September trip to St Mirren as its next fixture.
- E. Agyei started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 17:04 · Europe/BucharestDundee United FC — Emmanuel Agyei appeal dismissedwww.dundeeunitedfc.co.uk · 4 Sep 2026Dundee United FC — United battle to late draw at homewww.dundeeunitedfc.co.uk · 5 Sep 2026
Dundee United are 11th in the Premiership, with 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses. They have scored 6 goals and conceded 11.
Dundee United's poor start puts pressure on them to get a result. They have lost three of their last five league matches, including a 3-0 defeat at Motherwell on 2 September 2026. Their away record is also weak: 1 win and 2 losses in 3 away games, with 4 goals scored and 7 conceded. This could make them more desperate, but it also shows they are struggling to compete.
- Dundee United are 11th with 5 points from 6 matches.
- They have lost three of their last five league games.
- They lost 3-0 away to Motherwell on 2 September 2026.
- Their away record is 1 win and 2 losses in 3 matches.
St Mirren midfielder K. Phillips is working back from a shin injury.
The Dundee United match is his targeted return, but his availability remains unresolved before team news. Phillips has started only one of the last five available fixtures, so his inclusion would be a change to recent selection.
- Craig McLeish said K. Phillips was making his way back from a shin injury.
- McLeish identified the Dundee United match on 19 September as the intended return fixture.
- K. Phillips started 1 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 16 Sep 2026, 17:04 · Europe/BucharestSTV News — Bravery is key for St Mirren ahead of return to Ibrox, says McLeishnews.stv.tv · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, but the odds already price in a high likelihood, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St. Mirren's stronger league position and home advantage outweigh Dundee United's poor away form, though H2H is balanced.
- St. Mirren home record this season: 1W-1D-1L, 5 goals for, 5 against
- Dundee United away record: 1W-0D-2L, 4 goals for, 7 against
- H2H last 5: St. Mirren 2 wins, Dundee United 2 wins, 1 draw; St. Mirren won last home meeting 2-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSt. MirrenEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dundee United's poor away form and St. Mirren's solid home record make a home win or draw highly likely.
- St. Mirren home record: 1W-1D-1L
- Dundee United away record: 1W-0D-2L
- Dundee United have lost 3 of last 5 league matches
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSt. Mirren or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St. Mirren's stronger first-half scoring and Dundee United's tendency to trail at the break give the home side an edge.
- St. Mirren led at half-time in 53% of recent matches
- Dundee United trailed at half-time in 53% of recent matches
- St. Mirren average 0.9 first-half goals vs Dundee United's 0.5
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSt. MirrenEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St. Mirren's superior second-half scoring and overall form make them slight favorites to win the second half.
- St. Mirren average 1.0 second-half goals, concede 0.8
- Dundee United average 0.6 second-half goals, concede 0.8
- St. Mirren have better overall form (LLWDW vs DLWLL)
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostSt. MirrenEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
St. Mirren's tendency to lead at half-time and win matches supports a home/home double, though probability remains modest.
- St. Mirren led at half-time in 53% of recent matches
- St. Mirren won 3 of last 6 league matches
- Dundee United lost 3 of last 5 league matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostSt. Mirren/St. MirrenEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- St. Mirren home matches average 3.33 total goals (5 for, 5 against in 3 games)
- Dundee United away matches average 3.67 total goals (4 for, 7 against in 3 games)
- Last 5 H2H: 2, 3, 2, 4, 2 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding, making BTTS likely.
- St. Mirren scored in 2 of 3 home games, conceded in 2 of 3
- Dundee United scored in 2 of 3 away games, conceded in all 3
- Last H2H meeting ended 1-1
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first-half goals probable.
- St. Mirren average 0.9 first-half goals, concede 0.5
- Dundee United average 0.5 first-half goals, concede 0.7
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.4
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring averages suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5 goals after the break.
- St. Mirren average 1.0 second-half goals (total 1.9 - first-half 0.9)
- Dundee United average 0.6 second-half goals (total 1.1 - first-half 0.5)
- Combined second-half goal average: 1.6
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 5 corners each, suggesting a total above 9.5 is slightly more likely.
- St. Mirren average 5.8 corners per match, concede 5.8
- Dundee United average 5.1 corners per match, concede 5.1
- Combined average corners: 10.9
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average is just above 8.5, making over 8.5 a marginal lean.
- St. Mirren average 5.0 shots on target per match, concede 4.0
- Dundee United average 3.9 shots on target per match, concede 4.5
- Combined average shots on target: 8.9
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card average is exactly 3.5, with Dundee United's higher discipline issues pushing slightly over.
- St. Mirren average 2.0 yellow cards per match, opponents 1.5
- Dundee United average 2.4 yellow cards per match, opponents 1.8
- Combined average cards: 3.5
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%