Hebar Pazardzhik1Dobrudzha Dobrich2

HT 1–1Sun 27 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–936%

Edges2–250%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 01:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Round 11 of the Second League: Hebar Pazardzhik, tenth, host a Dobrudzha side that has lost all four away league games, scoring twice on the road.

Hebar's 5-0 win at Montana and six goals from division-leading scorer I. Mihaylov make a home win the plain reading. The prices don't pay for it — Hebar at 1.4, over 2.5 goals at 1.57, Hebar ahead at half-time at 1.91 and a first-half goal at 1.25 each ask more than the record supports.

Context

Hebar scored five without reply away at Montana on 21 September, the standout result in their recent sequence and the clearest gauge of their attacking output. Playing at home in Round 11, that performance is the reference point most likely to shape the hosts' approach and the visitors' defensive setup. The limitation is that a single scoreline can overstate a team's underlying level, and no confirmed selection or availability news shows whether Hebar can field the same attacking unit again.
- Hebar Pazardzhik's most recent Second League match was away to Montana on 21 September 2026 and finished 5-0 in Hebar's favour.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 01:19 · Europe/BucharestSofascore – Hebar Pazardzhik team results pagewww.sofascore.com · 21 Sep 2026
I. Mihaylov sits on six league goals, the most of any player in the Second League, and is the recognised focal point of Hebar's attack. Against a first-time opponent, how Dobrudzha Dobrich set up to handle the division's leading scorer is a central tactical question for the fixture. The caveat is that a scoring list reflects cumulative output rather than current form, so it does not by itself show whether he is available or in rhythm for this particular game.
- Ivaylo Mihaylov of Hebar Pazardzhik is listed as the Second League's top scorer with 6 goals.
- I. Mihaylov started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 01:19 · Europe/BucharestFotMob – Dobrudzha Dobrich vs Hebar match pagewww.fotmob.com · 25 Sep 2026
Dobrudzha have not taken a league point on the road this season, and two goals in four away games leaves them almost no margin against a home side that has scored in every tracked home match. Hebar's own home returns are not dominant, though — two wins from four with a draw and a defeat — so the gap is real but narrower than the table positions suggest.
- Standings as of 25 September 2026: Dobrudzha Dobrich's away record in the 2026 Second League is 4 played, 0 wins, 0 draws, 4 defeats, 2 goals scored and 10 conceded.
- Over the same 10-game league campaign, Hebar Pazardzhik's home record is 4 played, 2 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat, 8 goals scored and 5 conceded.
There is no prior meeting between Hebar Pazardzhik and Dobrudzha Dobrich, so neither side can draw on a familiar matchup or a previous result. That absence of history makes the fixture harder to read from precedent and shifts the emphasis onto current form and selection. It is a genuine first rather than the renewal of an old rivalry, so its value is contextual rather than a playing-condition signal.
- The head-to-head record between Hebar Pazardzhik and Dobrudzha Dobrich shows no previous meetings, with 0 wins for each side.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 01:19 · Europe/BucharestFotMob – Dobrudzha Dobrich vs Hebar match pagewww.fotmob.com · 25 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1st Half GoalswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

1.25fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 80%

−12.0ppshort

Most recent matches for both teams have featured a first-half goal, and Dobrudzha concede early on their travels.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Hebar Pazardzhik

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

−11.4ppshort

Hebar sit higher in the table, have scored heavily in recent weeks and host a side that has lost every league away game while scoring twice.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

−8.7ppshort

Both teams' recent matches have produced goals, and Dobrudzha's away defence concedes heavily against a home side that scores regularly.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Hebar sit higher in the table, have scored heavily in recent weeks and host a side that has lost every league away game while scoring twice.
- Hebar league home record: 4 games, 2W 1D 1L, 8 goals scored and 5 conceded. Dobrudzha league away record: 4 games, 0W 0D 4L, 2 scored and 10 conceded.
- Hebar scored 14 goals in their last six league matches while conceding 6; Dobrudzha scored 5 and conceded 13 in theirs.
- Hebar scored in all five tracked home matches at 1.8 goals per game; Dobrudzha scored in 2 of 5 tracked away matches at 0.6 per game.
- I. Mihaylov is the Second League's leading scorer with 6 goals.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHebar PazardzhikEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.91
The read
Dobrudzha concede heavily before the break away from home, and Hebar have shown they can be two goals up by half-time.
- Hebar average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded in tracked home matches; Dobrudzha average 0.2 scored and 1.4 conceded in away first halves.
- Dobrudzha conceded 1.4 first-half goals per away match and 0.82 per match overall.
- Hebar led 3-0 at half-time at Montana and 2-0 at half-time at home to Etar.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostHebar PazardzhikEstimated chance44%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hebar's home goals mostly come after the break, while Dobrudzha score and concede little in away second halves.
- Hebar average 1.4 second-half goals at home and 0.4 in first halves; Dobrudzha average 0.4 second-half goals away.
- Seven of Hebar's nine tracked home goals came after half-time.
- Dobrudzha have conceded 0.8 second-half goals per away match and 0.82 per match overall.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostHebar PazardzhikEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hebar sit higher in the table, have scored heavily in recent weeks and host a side that has lost every league away game while scoring twice. Dobrudzha have collected most of their points by drawing and Hebar have already been held at home in their current run.
- Hebar league home record: 4 games, 2W 1D 1L, 8 goals scored and 5 conceded. Dobrudzha league away record: 4 games, 0W 0D 4L, 2 scored and 10 conceded.
- Hebar scored 14 goals in their last six league matches while conceding 6; Dobrudzha scored 5 and conceded 13 in theirs.
- Dobrudzha have 3 draws in 10 league games, all of them at home; Hebar have 1 draw in 4 league home games.
- Hebar were held 1-1 by Fratria at home and 1-1 away at Ludogorets II in recent league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostHebar Pazardzhik or DrawEstimated chance83%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dobrudzha concede heavily before the break away from home, and Hebar have shown they can be two goals up by half-time. Hebar often reach the break level and score little before half-time at home, while Dobrudzha rarely score early.
- Hebar average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded in tracked home matches; Dobrudzha average 0.2 scored and 1.4 conceded in away first halves.
- Dobrudzha conceded 1.4 first-half goals per away match and 0.82 per match overall.
- Hebar were level at half-time in four of their last six league matches.
- Hebar average 0.4 first-half goals at home and 0.4 conceded.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonHebar Pazardzhik or DrawEstimated chance84%

Goals4 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both teams' recent matches have produced goals, and Dobrudzha's away defence concedes heavily against a home side that scores regularly.
- Hebar's home matches average 3.0 total goals and Dobrudzha's away matches average 2.8.
- Three of Hebar's last six and three of Dobrudzha's last six league games finished with more than 2.5 goals.
- Dobrudzha concede 2.2 goals per away match while Hebar average 1.8 goals at home.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dobrudzha's away scoring is thin enough that the visitors may be kept out, even though Hebar concede at home.
- Dobrudzha's league away record shows 2 goals scored in 4 games.
- Dobrudzha have scored in only 5 of 11 competitive matches this season.
- Hebar have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 competitive matches, including 1 in 5 tracked home games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hebar's home scoring rate and Dobrudzha's away concession rate both point to the hosts getting at least two goals.
- Hebar average 1.8 goals in tracked home matches and have scored 8 goals in 4 league home games.
- Hebar scored in all five tracked home matches.
- Dobrudzha concede 2.2 goals per away match and have kept no clean sheet away this season.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostHebar Pazardzhik over 1.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dobrudzha's away goal output has been minimal all season, making two or more away goals unlikely.
- Dobrudzha have 2 goals in 4 league away games and average 0.6 in tracked away matches.
- Dobrudzha have been shut out in 3 of their 5 tracked away matches.
- Hebar's home games average 1.2 goals conceded per match.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostDobrudzha Dobrich under 1.5Estimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hebar have conceded in almost every home game this season, so a Dobrudzha goal is the more likely outcome.
- Hebar conceded in 4 of their 5 tracked home matches and in 10 of 13 competitive matches overall.
- Hebar average 1.2 goals conceded per tracked home match.
- Dobrudzha scored in 2 of their 5 tracked away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonDobrudzha Dobrich to scoreEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hebar's scoring record at home makes a Dobrudzha clean sheet very unlikely.
- Hebar have scored in all five tracked home matches, averaging 1.8 goals.
- Dobrudzha have conceded in all 5 tracked away matches and let in 10 goals in 4 league away games.
- Hebar scored 14 goals across their last six league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHebar Pazardzhik to scoreEstimated chance89%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Most recent matches for both teams have featured a first-half goal, and Dobrudzha concede early on their travels.
- Hebar's matches average 1.23 first-half goals; Dobrudzha's away matches average 1.6.
- Four of Hebar's last six and four of Dobrudzha's last six league matches had a first-half goal.
- Dobrudzha conceded 1.4 first-half goals per away match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team scores regularly in the opening 45 minutes, so both finding the net before half-time is unlikely.
- Dobrudzha have scored just 3 first-half goals in 11 competitive matches.
- Hebar average 0.4 first-half goals at home and Dobrudzha 0.2 away.
- Hebar were level at half-time in four of their last six league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance84%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second halves have regularly produced two or more goals, and Hebar score freely after the break at home.
- Hebar home second halves average 2.2 total goals and Dobrudzha away second halves average 1.2.
- Four of Hebar's last six and five of Dobrudzha's last six league matches produced two or more second-half goals.
- Hebar average 1.4 second-half goals at home.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%