Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Hebar Pazardzhik4Etar Veliko Tarnovo1

HT 2–0Mon 14 Sept 2026, 14:45 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges5–363%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 01:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Etar Veliko Tarnovo are the value pick to win away at Hebar Pazardzhik, with a 9-point edge on the away win at odds of 2.80.

Avoid the over 2.5 goals market, as Etar's security-first approach and Hebar's suspension make the odds too short.

Context

Hebar Pazardzhik are 15th in the Second League with 8 points from 8 matches, while the relegation line is 13th place.
They are two points below the relegation line, so this home match is important for their survival hopes. Etar Veliko Tarnovo are 4th with 14 points, so the visitors have less immediate pressure.
- Hebar Pazardzhik are 15th with 8 points from 8 matches.
- The relegation line is 13th place, currently held by Marek with 10 points.
- Etar Veliko Tarnovo are 4th with 14 points.
Hebar defender R. Mazáň started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His confirmed two-match suspension removes a regular starter from Hebar's defensive setup for this match. The team must adjust its back line and set-piece staffing without him. The absence is certain, so the change is immediate rather than speculative.
- The Bulgarian FA disciplinary decision lists Robert Mazan of Hebar with a two-match suspension.
- The decision was published on 9 September and covers the Second League's eighth round.
- R. Mazáň started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 01:10 · Europe/BucharestBulgarian Football Union disciplinary decisionbfunion.bg · 9 Sep 2026
Etar Veliko Tarnovo are 4th in the Second League with 14 points, but their away record is weaker than their home form.
They have won 1, drawn 0, and lost 2 of their 3 away matches, scoring 7 and conceding 7. That away fragility could give Hebar Pazardzhik a chance, even though the visitors are higher in the table.
- Etar Veliko Tarnovo away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses in 3 matches.
- They scored 7 and conceded 7 in those away games.
- Their home record is 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in 5 matches.
Hebar defender S. Tsonkov started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, while M. Georgiev started in the same position in 3 of those fixtures when Tsonkov did not start.
Tsonkov's return to the first-team pool gives Hebar a direct option to cover Mazáň's suspension. Georgiev has been the more frequent starter in that role recently, so the coaching staff may choose between the two. The return is confirmed, but the actual selection remains open.
- Hebar's official 1 September report described S. Tsonkov as having returned to the club.
- S. Tsonkov started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- M. Georgiev started in the same position in 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when S. Tsonkov did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 01:10 · Europe/BucharestFC Hebar 1918 match reporthebarfc.com · 1 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Etar's superior league position and away scoring rate give them an edge, though Hebar's home resilience and recent H2H win keep the probability moderate.
- Etar are 4th with 14 points from 8 matches; Hebar are 15th with 8 points.
- Etar's away record is 1W-0D-2L with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded in 3 away games.
- Hebar's home record is 1W-1D-1L with 4 goals scored and 4 conceded in 3 home games.
- Last H2H: Hebar won 1-0 away on 10 May 2026, but Etar won 2-0 at Hebar on 8 Nov 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEtar Veliko TarnovoEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Etar's stronger overall form and Hebar's struggles make an away win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Etar have lost only 2 of 8 league matches this season.
- Hebar have won only 2 of 8 league matches and are in the relegation zone.
- Etar's away form includes a 5-1 win and a 1-0 win in their last two away league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostEtar Veliko Tarnovo or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Etar's stronger first-half scoring record gives them a slight edge to lead at the break.
- Etar lead at halftime in 33% of matches, while Hebar lead in only 7%.
- Etar average 1.0 first-half goals scored vs Hebar's 0.4.
- Hebar trail at halftime in 36% of matches, Etar trail in 47%.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostEtar Veliko TarnovoEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Etar's ability to start strongly and hold leads makes HT/FT away win possible but not highly probable.
- Etar have led at halftime and won in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Hebar have not led at halftime in their last 5 matches.
- Etar's away wins this season include a 5-1 victory.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostEtar Veliko Tarnovo / Etar Veliko TarnovoEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hebar rarely lead at halftime, making Etar or draw the safer first-half double chance.
- Etar lead at halftime in 33% of matches and draw at halftime in 20%.
- Hebar lead at halftime in only 7% of matches.
- Hebar's first-half goal difference is -0.3 per match.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostEtar Veliko Tarnovo or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals6 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring tendencies and leaky defenses, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Hebar's league matches average 3.0 total goals (14 scored, 16 conceded in 8 games).
- Etar's league matches average 3.1 total goals (14 scored, 11 conceded in 8 games).
- Both teams have scored in 5 of Hebar's last 6 league matches.
- Etar's last 5 league matches have produced 3, 5, 4, 3, and 1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently find the net while also conceding, making BTTS a strong possibility.
- Hebar have scored in 7 of their last 8 league matches.
- Etar have scored in 7 of their last 8 league matches.
- Hebar have conceded in 7 of their last 8 league matches.
- Etar have conceded in 6 of their last 8 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Etar's high first-half scoring and conceding rates suggest at least one goal before halftime.
- Hebar average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match.
- Etar average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match.
- In their last 5 meetings, first-half goals occurred in 4 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in open second halves, but the probability is only moderate due to limited half-specific data.
- Hebar's second-half goal difference is -0.3 per match (1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded overall).
- Etar's second-half goal difference is +0.3 per match (2.1 scored, 1.8 conceded overall).
- Recent matches show both teams scoring and conceding in second halves.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hebar's defensive struggles and Etar's scoring form make a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Hebar have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 8 league matches.
- Etar have scored in 7 of their last 8 league matches.
- Etar average 2.1 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEtar Veliko Tarnovo to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Etar's defensive inconsistency and Hebar's scoring threat make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Etar have kept only 2 clean sheets in their last 8 league matches.
- Hebar have scored in 7 of their last 8 league matches.
- Hebar average 1.3 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHebar Pazardzhik to scoreEstimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 47% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 35%; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

W0-1Etar Veliko TarnovovHebar 1918May 10, 2026SEC

L2-0Hebar 1918vEtar Veliko TarnovoNov 8, 2025SEC

L3-1Hebar 1918vEtar Veliko TarnovoMay 25, 2024FIR

L3-0Hebar 1918vEtar Veliko TarnovoApr 6, 2024FIR

W2-5Etar Veliko TarnovovHebar 1918Oct 8, 2023FIR

Etar Veliko Tarnovo: 2 clean sheets3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Hebar Pazardzhik Relegation	8	2	2	4	14-16	8	LDDWW
4	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	8	4	2	2	14-11	14	WLDLD

6pt gap between teamsHebar Pazardzhik in relegation zone

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