Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Hebar Pazardzhik1Fratria Varna1

HT 0–0Tue 1 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–918%

Edges2–167%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 17:24 · Europe/Bucharest

Fratria Varna are top of the league and in strong form, but the best betting value is Double Chance (Fratria or Draw) at 1.91, with a +23 point edge.

Avoid the straight away win and Over 2.5 goals due to thin margins.

Context

Fratria Varna are the current league leaders in the Second League.
They have won four of their last five league matches, including a 1-0 home win over CSKA Sofia II on 29 August 2026 and a 2-0 home win over Beroe on 14 August 2026. Their only league defeat came at home to Marek on 25 July 2026. This strong run suggests they are in good form and likely to be confident, but their away record is less dominant with one win and one draw from two away games.
- Fratria Varna are 1st in the league with 13 points from 6 matches (4W, 1D, 1L).
- They won 1-0 at home against CSKA Sofia II on 29 August 2026.
- They won 2-0 at home against Beroe on 14 August 2026.
- Their only league defeat was 0-1 at home to Marek on 25 July 2026.
Hebar Pazardzhik are 12th in the league with 7 points from 6 matches.
At home, they have played two league matches, winning 1-0 against Chernomorets 1919 Burgas on 23 August 2026 but losing 2-3 to Vihren on 2 August 2026. Their home form is mixed, and they have conceded three goals in those two games. This suggests they may struggle to contain a strong Fratria Varna attack.
- Hebar Pazardzhik have 1 win and 1 loss in 2 home league matches.
- They beat Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-0 at home on 23 August 2026.
- They lost 2-3 at home to Vihren on 2 August 2026.
Fratria Varna enter this match as the sole leaders of the Second League after their 1-0 win over CSKA II on 29 August 2026.
The visitors have a clear competition incentive to protect or extend their lead at the top. This leadership position may influence their approach, but it does not guarantee a specific result against Hebar Pazardzhik.
- BTA reported that Fratria beat CSKA II 1-0 on 29 August 2026 and became the new Second League leaders.
- Sportal independently reported that the same 1-0 win made Fratria the sole leaders of the division.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 17:22 · Europe/BucharestBTA: Fratria became Second League leaderswww.bta.bg · 29 Aug 2026Sportal: Fratria took sole lead after CSKA II winsportal.bg · 29 Aug 2026
Fratria Varna are the league leaders with a goal difference of +5.
They have conceded only three goals in six league matches, keeping clean sheets in four of those games. This defensive solidity could frustrate Hebar Pazardzhik, who have scored 11 goals but also conceded 12. Fratria's ability to limit chances may be key in this away fixture.
- Fratria Varna have conceded 3 goals in 6 league matches.
- They kept clean sheets in 4 of those 6 matches.
- Their goals against average is 0.5 per game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.38fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal average is 1.3 per match, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate, so no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fratria's superior league position, away form, and recent momentum give them a clear edge over a Hebar side struggling for consistency.
- Fratria are top of the league with 13 points from 6 games (4W 1D 1L), while Hebar are 12th with 7 points.
- Fratria's away record this season: 1W 1D 0L, 4 goals scored, 2 conceded in 2 away matches.
- Hebar's home record this season: 1W 0D 1L, 3 goals scored, 3 conceded in 2 home matches.
- Fratria's last 5 league matches: WDWWW (13 points from 15), Hebar's last 5: DWWLL (7 points from 15).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFratria VarnaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria's strong form and Hebar's inconsistency make the away side not losing the most likely outcome.
- Fratria have lost only 1 of their last 6 league matches.
- Hebar have lost 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Fratria's away record this season: unbeaten in 2 away games (1W 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFratria Varna or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fratria's strong first-half scoring and Hebar's tendency to trail early give the visitors an edge at the break.
- Fratria lead at half-time in 50% of their matches (leadingAtHalfTime: 50).
- Hebar trail at half-time in 50% of their matches (trailingAtHalfTime: 50).
- Fratria average 0.9 first-half goals scored vs Hebar's 0.4.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFratria VarnaEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fratria's ability to control games from the start makes a half-time/full-time double a reasonable long-shot.
- Fratria have led at half-time and won the match in 3 of their last 5 league games.
- Hebar have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 3 of their last 5 league games.
- Fratria's away form: unbeaten in 2 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostFratria Varna/Fratria VarnaEstimated chance30%

Goals1 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hebar's high-scoring games and defensive vulnerabilities suggest a match with at least three goals.
- Hebar's league matches average 3.83 total goals per game (23 goals in 6 matches).
- Fratria's league matches average 1.83 total goals per game (11 goals in 6 matches).
- Hebar have seen over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Fratria have seen over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability, and Hebar's leaky defense increases the chance of goals at both ends.
- Hebar have scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- Hebar have conceded in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- Fratria have scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
- Fratria have conceded in 3 of their last 6 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Fratria particularly strong early.
- Hebar average 0.4 first-half goals scored and 0.8 first-half goals conceded per match.
- Fratria average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.4 first-half goals conceded per match.
- Combined first-half goal average: 1.3 goals per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hebar's defensive frailty often leads to late goals, making over 1.5 second-half goals a plausible outcome.
- Hebar's matches average 2.0 second-half goals per game (based on total goals minus first-half goals).
- Fratria's matches average 0.8 second-half goals per game.
- Hebar have conceded 12 goals in 6 league matches, many in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fratria's solid defense and Hebar's occasional scoring droughts make an away clean sheet possible.
- Fratria have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 6 league matches.
- Hebar have failed to score in 1 of their last 6 league matches.
- Fratria's away record: 2 goals conceded in 2 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostHebar Pazardzhik not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hebar's home scoring record and overall attacking output suggest they can score at least twice.
- Hebar average 1.2 goals scored per match overall.
- Hebar have scored 3 goals in 2 home league matches this season.
- Hebar have scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostHebar Pazardzhik over 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fratria's consistent scoring, especially away from home, makes over 1.5 away goals likely.
- Fratria average 1.6 goals scored per match overall.
- Fratria have scored 4 goals in 2 away league matches this season.
- Fratria have scored in 5 of their last 6 league matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostFratria Varna over 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without concrete corner stats, this is a speculative pick based on expected attacking play from both sides.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in the provided dataset.
- Hebar's attacking style and high goal involvement suggest a higher corner count.
- Fratria's away matches may produce more corners due to their attacking approach.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 1W

L3-2FratriavHebar 1918Dec 5, 2025SEC

W1-3Hebar 1918vFratriaAug 5, 2025SEC

4.5 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
12	Hebar Pazardzhik	6	2	1	3	11-12	7	DWWLL
1	Fratria Varna	6	4	1	1	8-3	13	WDWWW

6pt gap between teamsFratria Varna leads the league

Recent Form

Hebar Pazardzhik

D1-1Ludogorets IIAug 29SEC

W1-0Chernomorets 1919 BurgasAug 23SEC

W3-2Pirin BlagoevgradAug 18SEC

L3-4CSKA Sofia IIAug 11SEC

L2-3VihrenAug 2SEC

L1-2BeroeJul 24SEC

L1-2Septemvri SofiaJul 7FRI

L0-1BallkaniJun 24FRI

L0-1Sportist SvogeMay 23SEC

D1-1MarekMay 15SEC

W1-0Etar Veliko TarnovoMay 10SEC

L1-2Ludogorets IIMay 4SEC

L1-3Chernomorets 1919 BurgasApr 27SEC

L0-2CSKA Sofia IIApr 22SEC

D2-2Pirin BlagoevgradApr 16SEC

Fratria Varna

W1-0CSKA Sofia IIAug 29SEC

D2-2VihrenAug 24SEC

W2-0BeroeAug 14SEC

W2-0Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaAug 9SEC

W1-0Rilski SportistAug 1SEC

L0-1MarekJul 25SEC

D1-1Yantra 2019Jul 10FRI

W2-1Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 4FRI

D1-1Farul ConstantaJun 27FRI

W3-0Pirin BlagoevgradMay 23SEC

W3-0BelasitsaMay 15SEC

D2-2Dunav RuseMay 11SEC

L1-2VihrenMay 4SEC

D2-2CSKA Sofia IIApr 26SEC

D1-1Spartak PlevenApr 16SEC

Squad & Injuries

Hebar Pazardzhik

22 available

Attackers7

Midfielders6

Defenders7

Goalkeeper2

Fratria Varna

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Fratria Varna or Draw

Yes

Over 0.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 7 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Hebar Pazardzhik

Fratria Varna

Squad & Injuries

Hebar Pazardzhik

Fratria Varna