Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Etar Veliko Tarnovo2Chernomorets Burgas4

HT 0–2Sun 20 Sept 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–657%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Sep 2026, 05:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Etar's unbeaten home record meets a Chernomorets side unbeaten in four under new coach Angel Stoykov, with the numbers pointing to goals and both teams scoring.

The best-priced angle is first-half goals Over 1.5 at 2.38 (implied 42% vs our 55%), while the short home win (1.91) and double chance (1.30) offer no value.

Context

Etar Veliko Tarnovo sit seventh in the Second League with 14 points from nine games, while Chernomorets Burgas are fifth on 15 points. Etar's home form is their clear strength: three wins and two draws from five home league matches.
Etar's home record shows they have avoided defeat in all five league games at their own ground, scoring seven and conceding four. Chernomorets have lost only once away, drawing three of five, so they have been difficult to beat on the road. The match pits Etar's strongest setting against an away side that has consistently taken points, which suggests the home advantage may be less decisive than the raw records imply.
- Etar home league record: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in 5 matches, 7 goals for and 4 against.
- Chernomorets away league record: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss in 5 matches, 7 goals for and 5 against.
- Etar are 7th with 14 points; Chernomorets are 5th with 15 points after nine rounds.
Etar Veliko Tarnovo have conceded 15 goals in nine league games, the joint-worst defensive record among the top eight teams. Their two most recent away matches both ended in heavy defeats.
The 4-1 losses at Hebar and Vihren on 14 and 3 September respectively show Etar can concede multiple goals in a single away game. However, both matches were on the road, and this fixture is at home, where Etar have conceded only four goals in five league games. The defensive concern is real but may be less relevant at their own ground.
- Etar lost 4-1 away to Hebar 1918 on 14 September 2026.
- Etar lost 4-1 away to Vihren on 3 September 2026.
- Etar have conceded 15 goals in nine league matches, with 11 of those coming in four away games.
A. Pemperski is an Etar Veliko Tarnovo defender who started 3 of the club's 5 recent fixtures with available lineups. He missed the 14 September defeat at Hebar through injury but was reported likely to return to the squad for this match.
His expected return restores a defensive selection option for Etar after he sat out the previous league game. The claim is reported rather than confirmed, so his inclusion in the matchday group is not yet settled, and the evidence does not establish how many minutes he would be ready to play.
- Borba BG reported on 17 September that Pemperski missed Etar's previous match through injury.
- The same report said he was likely to return to the squad against Chernomorets.
- A. Pemperski started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 20 Sep 2026, 05:42 · Europe/BucharestBorba BGwww.borbabg.com · 17 Sep 2026
Chernomorets Burgas sit fifth in the Second League with 15 points from nine games, one point and two places above Etar. Their recent league results include three wins in the last four matches.
The 3-0 home win over Spartak Pleven on 13 September and the 3-0 away win at Pirin Blagoevgrad on 29 August show Chernomorets can score freely when they take their chances. They also kept clean sheets in both of those wins and in the 1-0 victory over Ludogorets II on 2 September. That defensive solidity, combined with Etar's habit of conceding multiple goals in away games, gives the visitors a clear route to points.
- Chernomorets beat Spartak Pleven 3-0 at home on 13 September 2026.
- Chernomorets beat Ludogorets II 1-0 at home on 2 September 2026.
- Chernomorets beat Pirin Blagoevgrad 3-0 away on 29 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Draw

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77%

−5.0ppshort

No genuine value: the 1.30 price implies 77% while our own estimate is only 72%, so the market has already overpriced the safest result play.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

1.91fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 52%

0.0ppshort

The market prices Etar at 52% implied but our estimate is only 42%, so the home win is overpriced rather than a value edge.

Total Goals AwaylostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 1.5

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Chernomorets average just 1.1 goals per game and Etar concede only 0.8 at home, but the odds already price the Under above our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Etar's unbeaten home record (3W-2D-0L) and positive H2H psychology give them a structural home edge, though their poor recent league form and leaky defence (2.1 conceded per game) cap confidence.
- Etar home record 2026 season: 3W-2D-0L in 5 home matches, 7 goals for, 4 against (league table).
- Chernomorets away record: 1W-3D-1L in 5 away matches, 7 goals for, 5 against (league table).
- Etar overall form last 5 league matches: L-W-L-D-L, conceding 2.1 goals per game across last 15.
- H2H last 5: Etar won 2, drew 2, lost 1; Etar won the most recent friendly 3-1 on 11 July 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEtar Veliko TarnovoEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Etar's strong home record combined with Chernomorets' draw-heavy away form (3 draws in 5) and the H2H pattern of draws makes the home-or-draw double chance the safest result play.
- Etar are unbeaten at home this season: 3W-2D-0L in 5 home league matches.
- Chernomorets away record: 1W-3D-1L, with 3 draws in 5 away matches.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 2 draws, Etar 2 wins, Chernomorets 1 win.
- Etar home goals against: 4 in 5 matches (0.8 per game) vs 11 in 4 away matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostEtar Veliko Tarnovo or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have mixed half-time records with no dominant pattern, and Etar's tendency to trail early is offset by Chernomorets' low first-half scoring (0.5 per game), making a level first half the most likely outcome.
- Etar half-time results last 5 league matches: L-W-L-L-L (trailing at half-time in 4 of 5).
- Chernomorets half-time results last 5 league matches: W-D-W-D-L.
- Etar led at half-time in only 33% of matches; Chernomorets led in 33%.
- H2H last 5: half-time scores were level or one-goal margins in most meetings.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Etar's stronger home record and higher second-half scoring rate give them a slight edge to win the second half, though Chernomorets' resilience in away draws limits confidence.
- Etar score 1.1 second-half goals per game on average (2.1 total minus 1.0 first-half).
- Chernomorets score 0.6 second-half goals per game on average (1.1 total minus 0.5 first-half).
- Etar home record 3W-2D-0L suggests stronger second-half home performances.
- Chernomorets away record includes 3 draws, indicating they hold on in second halves.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostEtar Veliko TarnovoEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Etar's home strength and Chernomorets' draw-heavy away form make the home-or-draw first-half double chance the most probable outcome, supported by both teams' moderate first-half scoring.
- Etar led or drew at half-time in 47% of matches (33% led, 14% drew).
- Chernomorets led at half-time in 33% and drew in 40% of matches.
- Etar home matches: 7 goals for, 4 against; they rarely trail at home.
- Chernomorets away: 1W-3D-1L, with 3 draws suggesting tight first halves.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostEtar Veliko Tarnovo or DrawEstimated chance65%

Goals8 of 9 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, and the H2H record shows both teams scoring in 4 of the last 5 meetings, supporting a Yes on BTTS.
- Etar average 2.1 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game across last 15 matches.
- Chernomorets average 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game across last 15 matches.
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 of 5 meetings (3-1, 1-1, 3-3, 2-0, 1-0).
- Etar home matches: 7 goals for, 4 against in 5 games; Chernomorets away: 7 for, 5 against in 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Etar's high-scoring, leaky profile (4.2 goals per game combined) and the H2H history of high-scoring fixtures push the total toward Over 2.5, though Chernomorets' tighter defence keeps confidence moderate.
- Etar last 15 matches average 4.2 total goals per game (2.1 for, 2.1 against).
- Chernomorets last 15 matches average 2.4 total goals per game (1.1 for, 1.3 against).
- H2H last 5 meetings produced totals of 4, 2, 6, 2, 1 goals.
- Etar home matches average 2.2 total goals; Chernomorets away matches average 2.4 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Etar's tendency to concede early (1.4 first-half goals against per game) and their high-scoring profile make an early goal likely, supporting Over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Etar average 1.0 first-half goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game across last 15.
- Chernomorets average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game across last 15.
- Etar trailed at half-time in 53% of matches; led in 33%.
- H2H last 5: first-half goals recorded in 4 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Etar's poor defensive record (2.1 conceded per game) and Chernomorets' consistent scoring make an Etar clean sheet unlikely.
- Etar have kept clean sheets in only 2 of 15 recent matches (13%).
- Etar conceded 2.1 goals per game across last 15 matches.
- Chernomorets scored in 11 of 15 recent matches (73%).
- H2H last 5: Chernomorets scored in 4 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonChernomorets Burgas to scoreEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Etar's strong home scoring record (1.4 goals per home game) and Chernomorets' moderate defensive record make a Chernomorets clean sheet unlikely.
- Chernomorets kept clean sheets in 4 of 15 recent matches (27%).
- Chernomorets conceded 1.3 goals per game across last 15 matches.
- Etar scored in 12 of 15 recent matches (80%).
- Etar home record: 7 goals in 5 home matches (1.4 per game).
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEtar Veliko Tarnovo to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Etar's home scoring rate (1.4 per game) and their overall high-scoring profile make them likely to score at least twice at home, supporting Over 1.5 total home goals.
- Etar scored 7 goals in 5 home league matches (1.4 per game).
- Etar scored 2+ goals in 3 of their last 5 home matches.
- Chernomorets conceded 5 goals in 5 away matches (1.0 per game).
- Etar average 2.1 goals per game across last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonEtar Veliko Tarnovo over 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chernomorets' modest scoring rate (1.1 per game) and Etar's relatively solid home defence (0.8 conceded per home game) suggest the away side is unlikely to score more than once.
- Chernomorets scored 7 goals in 5 away league matches (1.4 per game).
- Chernomorets average 1.1 goals per game across last 15 matches.
- Etar conceded 4 goals in 5 home matches (0.8 per game).
- Chernomorets scored 1 or fewer goals in 9 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostChernomorets Burgas under 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Etar's very low clean-sheet rate (13%) and Chernomorets' consistent scoring make a home win-to-nil highly improbable.
- Etar kept clean sheets in only 2 of 15 recent matches (13%).
- Etar conceded in 13 of 15 recent matches.
- Chernomorets scored in 11 of 15 recent matches (73%).
- H2H last 5: Chernomorets scored in 4 of 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Etar's strong home scoring record (1.4 goals per home game) and Chernomorets' moderate clean-sheet rate make an away win-to-nil unlikely.
- Chernomorets kept clean sheets in 4 of 15 recent matches (27%).
- Etar scored in 12 of 15 recent matches (80%).
- Etar scored 7 goals in 5 home league matches.
- Chernomorets conceded in 11 of 15 recent matches.
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance75%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

W1-3Chernomorets 1919 BurgasvEtar Veliko TarnovoJul 11, 2026FRI

D1-1Chernomorets 1919 BurgasvEtar Veliko TarnovoMay 3, 2026SEC

D3-3Etar Veliko TarnovovChernomorets 1919 BurgasNov 2, 2025SEC

L2-0Chernomorets 1919 BurgasvEtar Veliko TarnovoOct 13, 2024CUP

L1-0Chernomorets 1919 BurgasvEtar Veliko TarnovoJan 24, 2024FRI

Chernomorets Burgas: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Etar Veliko Tarnovo	9	4	2	3	15-15	14	LWLDL
5	Chernomorets Burgas	9	4	3	2	12-6	15	WDWWL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

L1-4Hebar 1918Sep 14SEC

W1-0CSKA Sofia IISep 6SEC

L1-4VihrenSep 3SEC

D2-2BeroeAug 29SEC

L1-2Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaAug 21SEC

D1-1Rilski SportistAug 15SEC

W1-0MarekAug 7SEC

W2-1Yantra 2019Aug 3SEC

W5-1NesebarJul 25SEC

W8-0SevlievoJul 18FRI

W3-1Chernomorets 1919 BurgasJul 11FRI

W2-1Botev PlovdivJul 4FRI

L4-7LudogoretsJun 26FRI

L0-6Levski SofiaJun 23FRI

L0-1MarekMay 23SEC

Chernomorets Burgas

W3-0Spartak PlevenSep 13SEC

D2-2FratriaSep 7SEC

W1-0Ludogorets IISep 2SEC

W3-0Pirin BlagoevgradAug 29SEC

L0-1Hebar 1918Aug 23SEC

L0-1CSKA Sofia IIAug 17SEC

D1-1VihrenAug 9SEC

W1-0BeroeAug 1SEC

D1-1Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 25SEC

L1-3Etar Veliko TarnovoJul 11FRI

L0-4Botev PlovdivJul 1FRI

L2-3SevlievoMay 23SEC

W1-0Sportist SvogeMay 15SEC

L0-3MarekMay 11SEC

D1-1Etar Veliko TarnovoMay 3SEC

Squad & Injuries

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

27 available

Attackers7

Midfielders11

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Chernomorets Burgas

24 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Over 1.5

Etar Veliko Tarnovo or Draw

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Yes

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals8 of 9 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Chernomorets Burgas

Squad & Injuries

Etar Veliko Tarnovo

Chernomorets Burgas