Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Chernomorets Burgas3Spartak Pleven0

HT 1–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Sep 2026, 00:50 · Europe/Bucharest

Chernomorets are favorites but the home win odds offer no value; the best edges are under 2.5 goals (1.78) and first-half draw (2.15).

Expect a low-scoring match with Chernomorets likely to avoid defeat, but avoid overpriced markets like BTTS No and first-half under 1.5.

Context

Spartak Pleven sits 12th in the Second League with 10 points from 8 matches.
Their away record shows 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 5 goals scored and 10 conceded. This defensive weakness on the road may allow Chernomorets Burgas, who have scored in most recent home games, to create scoring opportunities.
- Spartak Pleven away record: 1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses, 5 goals for, 10 goals against in 4 matches.
- In their last away match, Spartak Pleven lost 1-5 to CSKA Sofia II on 2026-09-03.
Chernomorets' home match against Spartak Pleven has been moved to the stadium in Nesebar.
The relocation removes the usual home-stadium setting and changes travel and pre-match routines for both sides. The linked analysis notes this slightly reduces Chernomorets' home advantage, though their stronger home form and head-to-head record still support them.
- Chernomorets announced that its upcoming home match would be played at the stadium in Nesebar.
- The club listed the match for Sunday 13 September at 17:00 local time.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 00:49 · Europe/BucharestChernomorets 1919www.chernomoretz1919.com · 10 Sep 2026
Chernomorets Burgas are 7th in the Second League with 12 points from 8 matches.
Their home record is 2 wins and 1 loss, with 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded. This solid home defense could frustrate Spartak Pleven, who have struggled to score consistently away from home.
- Chernomorets Burgas home record: 2 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss, 2 goals for, 1 goal against in 3 matches.
- In their last home match, Chernomorets Burgas beat Ludogorets II 1-0 on 2026-09-02.
Angel Stoykov is Chernomorets' new head coach and sporting director.
The coaching transition can affect selection priorities and team structure relative to the earlier season sample. No specific tactical plan for Spartak Pleven has been announced, so the exact impact remains uncertain.
- Chernomorets described Angel Stoykov as its new head coach and sporting director.
- The club said its 1-0 win over Ludogorets II was its second victory in two matches under Stoykov.
ConfirmedSources checked 13 Sep 2026, 00:49 · Europe/BucharestChernomorets 1919www.chernomoretz1919.com · 2 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Chernomorets Burgas

1.57fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Chernomorets' stronger home form and dominant H2H record give them the edge, though the venue change to Nesebar slightly reduces home advantage.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Chernomorets Burgas or Draw

1.20fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83.3%

−8.3ppshort

Chernomorets' solid home form and Spartak's poor away defensive record make a home win or draw highly likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 1.5

1.38fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chernomorets' stronger home form and dominant H2H record give them the edge, though the venue change to Nesebar slightly reduces home advantage.
- Chernomorets Burgas home record: 2W 0D 1L, 2 goals scored, 1 conceded in 3 home matches this season.
- Spartak Pleven away record: 1W 1D 2L, 5 goals scored, 10 conceded in 4 away matches.
- H2H last 4: Chernomorets won 3, Spartak won 1; Chernomorets won the most recent meeting 2-1 away.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonChernomorets BurgasEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chernomorets' solid home form and Spartak's poor away defensive record make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Chernomorets have lost only 1 of 3 home matches this season.
- Spartak Pleven have lost 2 of 4 away matches and have a -5 away goal difference.
- Chernomorets are unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 overall matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonChernomorets Burgas or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high rates of drawing at halftime, and Spartak rarely lead early, making a level first half likely.
- Chernomorets led at halftime in 33% of matches, trailed in 27%, and drew in 40%.
- Spartak Pleven led at halftime in only 7% of matches, trailed in 53%, and drew in 40%.
- H2H last 4: halftime results were D, W (Chernomorets), D, W (Chernomorets).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Chernomorets win is plausible given their superior second-half performance and Spartak's tendency to fade.
- Chernomorets have drawn at halftime in 40% of matches and won 37.5% overall.
- Spartak Pleven have drawn at halftime in 40% of matches but lost 50% overall.
- Chernomorets have a stronger second-half goal difference than Spartak.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Chernomorets BurgasEstimated chance20%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest scoring rates, and Chernomorets' home games have been low-scoring, supporting under 2.5 goals.
- Chernomorets average 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match overall.
- Spartak Pleven average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match overall.
- Chernomorets home matches this season have averaged 1.0 total goals (2 scored, 1 conceded in 3 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's recent scoring struggles and Chernomorets' solid home defense make it likely at least one team fails to score.
- Chernomorets have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Spartak Pleven have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Chernomorets home matches have seen only 1 goal conceded in 3 games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages, supporting under 1.5 first-half goals.
- Chernomorets average 0.6 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Spartak Pleven average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
- In H2H last 4 meetings, first-half goals were 0, 1, 0, 1 (all under 1.5).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as fatigue sets in, and both teams' scoring patterns suggest more goals after the break.
- Chernomorets average 0.5 second-half goals scored (1.1 total - 0.6 first half).
- Spartak Pleven average 0.7 second-half goals scored (1.0 total - 0.3 first half).
- Spartak concede 1.0 first-half goals on average, but their total conceded is 2.0, indicating more goals conceded after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Chernomorets' solid home defense and Spartak's scoring woes give a moderate chance of a home clean sheet.
- Chernomorets have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 matches.
- Spartak Pleven have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Chernomorets home matches have conceded only 1 goal in 3 games.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSpartak Pleven not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's poor away defensive record and Chernomorets' consistent scoring make an away clean sheet unlikely.
- Spartak Pleven have conceded in all 4 away matches this season (10 goals).
- Chernomorets have scored in 7 of their last 8 matches.
- Spartak Pleven have kept only 1 clean sheet in their last 8 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonChernomorets Burgas to scoreEstimated chance70%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 19% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 20%; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 2W

W1-2Spartak PlevenvChernomorets 1919 BurgasMar 7, 2026SEC

L2-0Chernomorets 1919 BurgasvSpartak PlevenAug 30, 2025SEC

W1-2Spartak PlevenvChernomorets 1919 BurgasMay 2, 2024SEC

L3-0Chernomorets 1919 BurgasvSpartak PlevenOct 21, 2023SEC

Spartak Pleven: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Chernomorets Burgas	8	3	3	2	9-6	12	DWWLL
12	Spartak Pleven	8	3	1	4	10-16	10	WLLLL

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Chernomorets Burgas

D2-2FratriaSep 7SEC

W1-0Ludogorets IISep 2SEC

W3-0Pirin BlagoevgradAug 29SEC

L0-1Hebar 1918Aug 23SEC

L0-1CSKA Sofia IIAug 17SEC

D1-1VihrenAug 9SEC

W1-0BeroeAug 1SEC

D1-1Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 25SEC

L1-3Etar Veliko TarnovoJul 11FRI

L0-4Botev PlovdivJul 1FRI

L2-3SevlievoMay 23SEC

W1-0Sportist SvogeMay 15SEC

L0-3MarekMay 11SEC

D1-1Etar Veliko TarnovoMay 3SEC

W3-1Hebar 1918Apr 27SEC

Spartak Pleven

W3-2Hebar 1918Sep 7SEC

L1-5CSKA Sofia IISep 3SEC

L0-2VihrenAug 30SEC

L0-3BeroeAug 25SEC

L0-1Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaAug 16SEC

D2-2Rilski SportistAug 9SEC

W2-1MarekAug 1SEC

W2-0Yantra 2019Jul 25SEC

L1-3MontanaJul 18FRI

L0-2Hapoel Petah TikvaJul 14FRI

L1-2Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 11FRI

W2-0Yantra 2019Jul 7FRI

L0-1Cherno More VarnaJul 3FRI

L1-2Botev VratsaJul 1FRI

L0-4Botev PlovdivJun 23FRI

Squad & Injuries

Chernomorets Burgas

24 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Spartak Pleven

23 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Under 2.5

Chernomorets Burgas

Chernomorets Burgas or Draw

Under 1.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 6 landed

Markets to Avoid

Spartak Pleven

Spartak Pleven

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Chernomorets Burgas

Spartak Pleven

Squad & Injuries

Chernomorets Burgas

Spartak Pleven