League OneFull time

Predictions graded

Leicester City2Plymouth Argyle0

HT 2–0Tue 1 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 23:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Leicester are likely to avoid defeat at home, with the double chance (Leicester or draw) offering the best value at 1.33 (model 80% vs implied 75%).

Avoid the first-half over 0.5 goals market, where the odds imply 80% but the model estimates only 65%.

Context

Leicester are 18th in League One with one point from two games.
They had 74% possession at home to Burton Albion on 22 August but lost 1-2, and 69% possession away to Notts County on 15 August in a 1-1 draw. Their high share of the ball has not led to goals, so Plymouth may sit deep and try to frustrate them.
- Leicester had 74% possession and lost 1-2 at home to Burton Albion on 22 August.
- Leicester had 69% possession and drew 1-1 away to Notts County on 15 August.
Leicester midfielder Conor Chaplin was replaced by Admir Bristric in the first half at MK Dons on Saturday.
A Plymouth-focused preview reports Chaplin is unlikely to be available for Tuesday after that early exit. His absence would remove one attacking selection option on a one-day turnaround, though the club has not confirmed the injury.
- Leicester’s official report states that Admir Bristric replaced Chaplin in the first half at MK Dons.
- Argyle Life reported on 31 August that Chaplin went off injured in the first half and was unlikely to be available.
ReportedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 23:24 · Europe/BucharestLCFC — Foxes Held To MK Dons Drawwww.lcfc.com · 29 Aug 2026Argyle Life — Preview: Leicester vs Plymouth Argyleargyle.life · 31 Aug 2026
Plymouth are 22nd in League One with one point from two games.
They lost 1-3 at home to Stockport County on 15 August after trailing 0-2 at half-time, and drew 1-1 away to Wycombe on 22 August after leading 1-0 at the break. Their slow starts have been costly, so Leicester may look to score early.
- Plymouth trailed 0-2 at half-time and lost 1-3 at home to Stockport County on 15 August.
- Plymouth led 1-0 at half-time away to Wycombe on 22 August but drew 1-1.
Leicester midfielder Hamza Choudhury completed a permanent move to Sheffield United on 31 August, subject to league clearance.
The departure removes a midfield selection option immediately before Plymouth visit King Power Stadium. Leicester have not yet indicated who fills that squad role for this match.
- Leicester announced that Choudhury had joined Sheffield United on a permanent basis, subject to league clearance.
- The club identifies him as a midfielder and confirms he is leaving Leicester after 21 years with the club.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 23:24 · Europe/BucharestLCFC — Choudhury Departs Leicester City After 21 Yearswww.lcfc.com · 31 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher scoring, and Plymouth's leaky defense increases the likelihood of multiple goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Leicester's superior possession and shot volume, combined with Plymouth's poor recent defensive record and negative H2H history, give the hosts a clear edge.
- Leicester average 59.4% possession and 15.4 shots per game over last 15 matches
- Plymouth have lost 2 of their last 3 competitive matches, conceding 4 and 3 goals
- Leicester won both previous H2H meetings, including 4-0 at home in Dec 2023
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLeicester CityEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Leicester's home resilience and Plymouth's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Leicester have lost only 1 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions
- Plymouth have won only 1 of their last 5 away matches
- Leicester's home form shows 1 win, 1 draw, 1 loss in last 3 home games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLeicester City or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into the break level, and the first-half scoring rates are moderate.
- Leicester have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches
- Plymouth have drawn at half-time in 2 of their last 5 matches
- Leicester average 0.5 first-half goals, Plymouth 0.9
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Leicester win is a plausible scenario given Leicester's second-half strength and Plymouth's fading.
- Leicester have drawn at half-time in 60% of recent matches
- Leicester have won 2 of their last 5 matches overall
- Plymouth have lost 2 of their last 3 competitive matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Leicester CityEstimated chance25%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended towards higher scoring, and Plymouth's leaky defense increases the likelihood of multiple goals.
- Leicester's last 5 matches averaged 2.8 total goals
- Plymouth's last 5 matches averaged 3.2 total goals
- Both teams have scored in 4 of Leicester's last 5 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability recently, and Plymouth's defensive vulnerabilities suggest Leicester will also find the net.
- Leicester have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches
- Plymouth have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches
- Both teams scored in 3 of Leicester's last 5 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Plymouth's strong first-half scoring record and Leicester's tendency to concede early suggest at least one goal before the break.
- Leicester average 0.5 first-half goals per game
- Plymouth average 0.9 first-half goals per game
- Plymouth have led at half-time in 40% of their matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring has been common in both teams' recent matches, though confidence is tempered by variability.
- Leicester's last 5 matches averaged 1.6 second-half goals
- Plymouth's last 5 matches averaged 1.8 second-half goals
- Both teams have scored in the second half in 3 of Leicester's last 5 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a high number of corners, making a total over 9.5 plausible.
- Leicester average 6.8 corners per game
- Plymouth average 6.6 corners per game
- Combined average corners in recent matches exceed 10
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a solid number of shots on target, supporting an over on the combined total.
- Leicester average 4.7 shots on target per game
- Plymouth average 6.1 shots on target per game
- Combined average shots on target is 10.8
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 29% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 20%; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

0W · 0D · 2W

L1-0PlymouthvLeicesterApr 12, 2024CHA

L4-0LeicestervPlymouthDec 9, 2023CHA

Plymouth Argyle: 2 clean sheets2.5 goals/game avg

League Table

League One 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Leicester City	2	0	1	1	2-3	1	LD
22	Plymouth Argyle Relegation - League Two	2	0	1	1	2-4	1	DL

Plymouth Argyle in relegation zone

Recent Form

Leicester City

L1-3IpswichAug 25LEA

L1-2Burton AlbionAug 22LEA

D1-1Notts CountyAug 15LEA

W1-0NorthamptonAug 8LEA

L0-1GenoaAug 1FRI

D3-3MalagaJul 25FRI

W1-0CadizJul 22FRI

W3-0Burton AlbionJul 18FRI

W2-1Bristol RoversJul 14FRI

W3-0NorthamptonJul 11FRI

W1-0BlackburnMay 2CHA

D1-1MillwallApr 24CHA

D2-2Hull CityApr 21CHA

L0-1PortsmouthApr 18CHA

L0-1SwanseaApr 11CHA

Plymouth Argyle

L2-4CoventryAug 25LEA

D1-1WycombeAug 22LEA

L1-3Stockport CountyAug 15LEA

W2-0Exeter CityAug 10LEA

W4-1TavistockAug 4FRI

D0-0Bristol CityAug 1FRI

W1-0Truro CityJul 25FRI

W1-0TorquayJul 21FRI

W3-0Bath CityJul 18FRI

W4-1Plymouth ParkwayJul 11FRI

W3-2NorthamptonMay 2LEA

W2-1Port ValeApr 25LEA

D1-1BradfordApr 21LEA

W3-1AFC WimbledonApr 18LEA

D2-2Exeter CityApr 11LEA

Squad & Injuries

Leicester City

35 available

Attackers8

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Plymouth Argyle

27 available

Attackers4

Midfielders11

Defenders10

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Leicester City

Leicester City or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Plymouth Argyle

Over 1.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Leicester City

Plymouth Argyle

Squad & Injuries

Leicester City

Plymouth Argyle