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West Ham

West Ham - Everton

Everton
🇬🇧 Premier LeagueFinished
Saturday, April 25, 2026 at 14:00

Finished Snapshot

FT2-1
FinishedSettled

Halftime

0-0

Predictions

4W · 6L · 0P

Edges

0W · 0L · 0P

Match Stats

Possession

44%-56%

Shots

10-11

Shots on Target

3-3

Corners

3-4

Quick Take

Everton are the structural favourites (70% X2 probability, MEDIUM confidence) given away form, H2H dominance, and motivation edge in their European chase, but the Branthwaite hamstring uncertainty and West Ham's desperate home-crowd factor (8 home losses in 16 matches) keep outri...

Context Signals

Model probabilities

Both Teams Score First HalfNo72%Mediumlost

Both teams are slow starters with <0.7 first-half goals; tactical profile + stakes favour cautious openings so scoring by both sides before HT is unlikely.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Double ChanceDraw or Everton (X2)70%Mediumlost

Structural home/away edge plus H2H dominance favour Everton avoiding defeat: West Ham have the league's weakest home record among mid-table, Everton's away form is positive, and Everton carry stronger motivation chasing European football (3 pts off 5th) vs a demoralised Hammers side with a manager under pressure.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Double ChanceEverton or Draw70%Mediumlost

Motivation + structural away edge: Everton's road form plus West Ham's porous home record produce a wide X2 covering both the outright win and the stalemate that H2H trends support.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

1st Half GoalsUnder 1.566%Mediumlost

Tactical cautiousness plus H2H pattern: both sides' first-half goal output is modest and recent meetings support sub-1.5 first halves.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Strong lean

Cards Over/UnderOver 4.564%Mediumwon

Motivation signal: relegation-vs-European-qualification stakes plus both sides' physical foul profiles (10+ per match) and high card averages point to a combined total above 4.5 cards.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Both Teams to ScoreYes62%Mediumwon

Tactical matchup edge + injuries signal: West Ham need goals for survival (high attacking intent at home) and Everton's defence may be compromised by Branthwaite's injury, while Everton's away attacking output (18 GF in 16 away) suggests both sides finding the net.

Signal quality: Medium · Uncertainty band: Lean

Corners Over/UnderUnder 10.558%Lowwon

Tactical matchup: two low-possession, mid-to-low shot-volume sides typically produce below-average corner counts; combined averages sit around 9 corners, well under 10.5.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Lean

Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 7.555%Lowlost

Stat dimension direct read: combined average (~8.6) sits modestly above 7.5; Everton's SoT efficiency adds upside but West Ham's variance (1 SoT vs City) keeps confidence LOW.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Goals Over/UnderOver 2.552%Lowwon

H2H suggests cagey meetings but West Ham's leaky season defence (1.73 conceded/game) and Everton's away attacking profile plus a possibly weakened Everton back-line push this just above the line; confidence is LOW due to recent 0-0 and 1-0 West Ham matches.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Slight lean

Match WinnerEverton38%Lowlost

Motivation asymmetry (European push vs survival desperation) plus league-position gap tilt the outright toward Everton, but West Ham's London Stadium survival urgency and home-crowd factor cap confidence at LOW.

Signal quality: Low · Uncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Markets to Avoid

Match Winner West Ham:West Ham as standalone favorite @ 2.50 lacks historical support (0 wins in last 5 H2H) and home record is weak (50% loss rate). Only play if expecting major upset given Everton's Branthwaite injury uncertainty.
1st Half Both Teams to Score No:Bookmaker odds (1.20) imply 83.3% probability that BTTS doesn't occur in first half, but predictor estimates only 28% probability (72% for 'No'). The market is overpricing first-half stalemate risk. However, the predictor's MEDIUM confidence and marginal probability gap (11 points) suggest execution risk — odds may reflect legitimate first-half defensive solidity from both sides.
Cards Over/Under Any:No cards markets available from bookmaker. Query returned zero matches for 'card', 'cards', or 'booking' related markets across available odds data.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

West Ham vs Everton shapes up as a study in motivation asymmetry. Everton arrive at the London Stadium just three points from a European qualification spot with seven games left, riding high under David Moyes—the early favourite for Manager of the Season. West Ham, by contrast, sit 17th with 33 points, mathematically safe from relegation but still fighting for breathing room. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo finds himself under pressure after a 2-0 loss at Villa Park, adding urgency to every home fixture.

Recent Form

West Ham

West Ham

D0-0Crystal PalaceApr 20PL
W4-0WolvesApr 10PL
L0-2Aston VillaMar 22PL
D1-1Manchester CityMar 14PL
W1-0FulhamMar 4PL
L2-5LiverpoolFeb 28PL
D0-0BournemouthFeb 21PL
D1-1Manchester UnitedFeb 10PL
W2-0BurnleyFeb 7PL
L2-3ChelseaJan 31PL
Everton

Everton

L1-2LiverpoolApr 19PL
D2-2BrentfordApr 11PL
W3-0ChelseaMar 21PL
L0-2ArsenalMar 14PL
W2-0BurnleyMar 3PL
W3-2NewcastleFeb 28PL
L0-1Manchester UnitedFeb 23PL
L1-2BournemouthFeb 10PL
W2-1FulhamFeb 7PL
D1-1BrightonJan 31PL

League Table

Premier League 2025/2026
#TeamPWDLGF-GAPts
17
West HamWest Ham
33891640-5733
10
EvertonEverton
331381240-3947
14pt gap between teams

Head-to-Head

2W · 3D · 0W
D1-1EvertonvWest HamSep 29, 2025PL
W2-1West HamvEvertonJul 30, 2025PRE
D1-1EvertonvWest HamMar 15, 2025PL
D0-0West HamvEvertonNov 9, 2024PL
W1-3EvertonvWest HamMar 2, 2024PL
West Ham unbeaten in 5 meetings2.2 goals/game avg

Squad & Injuries

West Ham

27 available
Attackers5
Midfielders9
Defenders10
Goalkeeper3

Everton

29 available
Attackers4
Midfielders13
Defenders9
Goalkeeper3