USL CupFull time

Predictions graded

Phoenix Rising2Orange County1

HT 1–1Sun 17 May 2026, 02:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges3–538%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 May 2026, 23:06 · Europe/Bucharest

A tight, low-scoring USL Cup clash is expected between Phoenix Rising and Orange County, with Phoenix unbeaten in recent H2Hs.

The best value lies in the first-half under 0.5 goals (55% estimated probability vs. 35.7% implied), supported by both teams' slow starts and a 0-0 halftime in their last meeting. The full-time draw also offers a slight edge, but the first-half under is the standout play.

Context

Last three H2H results: 1-1 (Mar 2026), 3-1 (Jun 2025), 1-0 (May 2023) all in Phoenix's favor or a draw.
- Orange County's only goal in the most recent meeting came in stoppage time to avoid defeat.
- Phoenix are at home, where they have been stronger historically in this fixture.
Phoenix lost 0-1 at home to Colorado Springs in their USL Cup opener.
- Orange County lost 1-2 at home to El Paso Locomotive in their first group game.
- Both teams are at the bottom of their group and need points to stay in contention.
Stone joined Phoenix Rising as an assistant in 2021 and became head coach in January 2024.
- He has faced Phoenix twice since leaving, with a 1-1 draw and a 1-2 loss.
- His intimate knowledge of Phoenix's setup could help Orange County tactically, but results so far are mixed.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Balanced H2H and similar recent form with multiple draws for both sides suggest a stalemate is likely, supported by the H2H psychology signal.
- Phoenix Rising drew 4 of last 15 matches, including 1-1 vs Orange County in March 2026.
- Orange County drew 4 of last 15, with 2 of last 5 ending level.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, each team 1 home win, 1 away win – balanced recent record.
- Both teams lost their only USL Cup group match 1-0 and 2-1 respectively, showing similar form.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Phoenix's recent H2H edge and home advantage make them unlikely to lose, with the H2H psychology and structural home/away edge signals supporting a double chance.
- Phoenix Rising unbeaten in last 3 H2H meetings (2W 1D).
- Orange County have not won any of last 3 vs Phoenix.
- Phoenix home form: 2W 2D 1L in last 5 home matches across all comps.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPhoenix Rising or DrawEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring and high frequency of drawn half-time scores for both teams indicate a likely level first half.
- Phoenix led at HT in only 27% of matches, trailed in 40%.
- Orange County led at HT in 31%, trailed in 23%.
- Last H2H: 0-0 at half-time.
- Both teams' USL Cup openers were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half performances are evenly matched with many draws, though low confidence due to variability in outcomes.
- Phoenix second-half record: 5W 5D 5L in last 15.
- Orange County second-half record: 6W 5D 4L in last 15.
- Last 5 H2H: second-half results split 2 draws, 2 Phoenix wins, 1 Orange County win.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A full-time draw after a level first half is plausible given both teams' tendency for draws, but the specific HT/FT double is a low-probability event.
- Phoenix had 4 draws at both HT and FT in last 15.
- Orange County had 3 draws at both HT and FT in last 15.
- Last H2H was 0-0 at HT, 1-1 FT.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Phoenix's poor first-half record and Orange County's recent resilience suggest the away side is unlikely to be behind at the break.
- Phoenix trailed at HT in 40% of matches, led in only 27%.
- Orange County led at HT in 31%, trailed in 23%.
- Orange County have not trailed at HT in last 5 matches (2W 3D).
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Orange CountyEstimated chance65%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly concede and have a recent H2H pattern of both scoring, making BTTS a reasonable expectation based on goals-against trends.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Phoenix's last 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in 6 of Orange County's last 15 matches.
- Last 2 H2H meetings both ended 1-1 and 2-1, with both teams scoring.
- Phoenix conceded in 11 of last 15, Orange County conceded in 9 of last 15.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Low average goals and frequent under 2.5 outcomes in recent form for both teams point to a tight, low-scoring match, driven by the goals-against and goals-for stats.
- Phoenix Rising avg 1.2 goals for, 0.9 against over last 15; 10 of 15 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Orange County avg 1.1 goals for, 0.9 against over last 15; 9 of 15 matches had under 2.5 goals.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 matches under 2.5, 2 over (both 3+ goals).
- Both teams' USL Cup openers were low-scoring (0-1 and 1-2).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and frequent 0-0 half-time scores, making a goalless first half probable.
- Phoenix avg 0.3 first-half goals, 0.6 conceded; 8 of 15 matches had 0-0 at HT.
- Orange County avg 0.5 first-half goals, 0.3 conceded; 7 of 15 matches had 0-0 at HT.
- Last H2H (Mar 2026): 0-0 at half-time.
- Both teams' USL Cup openers were 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals are common for both sides, with a strong trend of scoring after the break, supporting over 0.5 second-half goals.
- Phoenix scored in second half in 9 of last 15 matches.
- Orange County scored in second half in 8 of last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: second-half goals in 4 matches.
- Both teams conceded second-half goals in their USL Cup openers.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring rates for both teams make it unlikely both will score before the break.
- Phoenix first-half goals: 0.3 avg; conceded 0.6; BTTS in first half in only 3 of 15 matches.
- Orange County first-half goals: 0.5 avg; conceded 0.3; BTTS in first half in only 4 of 15 matches.
- Last H2H: 0-0 at half-time.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner data, a low-scoring game script suggests fewer corners, but confidence is low due to missing stats.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- USL Cup matches average around 8-9 corners based on general league trends.
- Low-scoring match expectation often correlates with fewer corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W1-2Orange County SCvPhoenix RisingApr 2, 2026US

D1-1Phoenix RisingvOrange County SCMar 15, 2026USL

L4-1Orange County SCvPhoenix RisingJul 31, 2025USL

W3-1Phoenix RisingvOrange County SCJun 8, 2025USL

L2-0Orange County SCvPhoenix RisingSep 26, 2024USL

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

USL League One Cup 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Phoenix Rising	1	0	0	1	0-1	0	L
5	Orange County	1	0	0	1	1-2	0	L

Recent Form

Phoenix Rising

D1-1San AntonioMay 10USL

W1-0Pittsburgh RiverhoundsMay 2USL

L0-1Colorado SpringsApr 26USL

W3-0Miami FCApr 18USL

L0-2San Jose EarthquakesApr 16US

W3-0New Mexico UnitedApr 12USL

L0-2Sacramento RepublicApr 5USL

D1-1FC TulsaMar 29USL

D2-2Oakland RootsMar 22USL

W4-0San RamonMar 18US

D1-1Orange County SCMar 15USL

L1-2San AntonioMar 8USL

L0-1Las Vegas LightsFeb 14FRI

W1-0El Paso LocomotiveNov 2USL

D0-0Pittsburgh RiverhoundsOct 25USL

Orange County

D2-2Colorado SpringsMay 9USL

L2-3Sacramento RepublicMay 3USL

L1-2El Paso LocomotiveApr 26USL

D0-0LexingtonApr 19USL

W1-0FC TulsaApr 12USL

W2-0San AntonioApr 9USL

L0-1New Mexico UnitedApr 5USL

W1-0Oakland RootsMar 29USL

W1-0Colorado SpringsMar 22USL

W3-0Laguna UnitedMar 19US

D1-1Phoenix RisingMar 15USL

D1-1Las Vegas LightsMar 8USL

D1-1Real Salt LakeFeb 6FRI

L0-2Los Angeles GalaxyFeb 4FRI

L0-1Los Angeles FCJan 24FRI

Squad & Injuries

Phoenix Rising

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Orange County

27 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

Under 0.5

Phoenix Rising or Draw

Draw or Orange County

Yes

Over 0.5

No

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Phoenix Rising

Orange County

Squad & Injuries

Phoenix Rising

Orange County