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Predictions graded

Yaroslav Demin #614Russia2Harold Mayot #202France0

Sets 6-3 · 6-4Fri 30 Oct 2026, 04:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions3–350%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarold Mayot · 412 places

Yaroslav Demin

Russia

Demin, 21, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ATP singles ranking is No. 624, reached on 4 November 2024.

Current ranking: #614
Peak ranking: #624 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #202
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 03:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Mayot is the higher-ranked man and a fair favourite, but the 1.25 on him to win and 1.33 on him for the opening set ask more than his 10-3 hard-court run justifies.

Demin has taken 10 of 12 hard-court first sets and 8 of 12 second sets; at 3.5 to win the match and 3.0 for the first set, his are the prices with something in them.

Context

Mayot's edge in this matchup is front-loaded rather than evenly spread across a match.
Mayot has opened strongly, taking 11 of 13 first sets at 5.85 games won against 4.08 lost. The same sample shows him at 4.31 games won against 5.00 lost in second sets, with seven of 13 lost. That split matters in a best-of-three quarter-final: if Demin survives the opening set, the record suggests the match tilts. The sample is 13 matches, so it is a pattern rather than a settled trait.
- Hard-court set record over 13 completed matches, 15 September to 28 October 2026: 11-2 in first sets, 6-7 in second sets.
- Set 1 averages 5.85 games won against 4.08 lost; set 2 averages 4.31 won against 5.00 lost.
- Two retirements were excluded from the sample.
Demin's recent hard-court matches have been short and mostly settled in his favour.
Eight of the 12 finished 2-0 to Demin, with only two going the full three sets, and he won 10 of 12 first sets at 5.58 games won against 3.50 lost. His matches average 20.5 games and 2.17 sets, the shorter profile against Mayot's 23.6 games. That points to a match that could be decided inside two sets, though the sample covers 12 matches and Mayot's own matches have run longer.
- Hard-court record over 12 completed matches, 13 September to 28 October 2026: 8-4, with scorelines of 2-0 eight times, 1-2 twice and 0-2 twice.
- Averages 20.5 total games and 2.17 total sets per match.
- First sets: 10-2, averaging 5.58 games won against 3.50 lost.
Demin reached the quarter-final with a lopsided scoreline and little time on court.
The 6-1, 6-3 scoreline over Broom is the most one-sided of Demin's recent wins and came the day before this quarter-final, so he arrives having spent minimal energy. The caveat is the opposition: Broom is ranked 268, well below Mayot's 202. It is a useful sign of current form rather than proof he will handle a higher-ranked opponent the same way.
- 28 October 2026: Demin beat Charles Broom 6-1, 6-3 on hard, winning 12 games to 4.
- Broom was ranked 268 at the time of the match; Mayot is ranked 202.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's higher ranking and first-set dominance make him a slight favorite.
- Mayot is ranked 202 versus Demin at 614.
- Mayot is 10-3 on hard over his last 13 matches.
- Mayot has won 11 of 13 hard-court first sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's longer matches and three-set tendency push the total toward the over.
- Mayot's hard-court matches average 23.6 total games.
- Demin's average 20.5.
- Mayot has five three-set matches in 13.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players often finish in two sets, with Demin especially prone to straight-set wins.
- Demin has gone 2-0 in eight of 12 hard-court matches.
- Mayot has finished 2-0 in six of 13.
- Demin's hard-court matches average 2.17 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's first-set record and ranking give him a small edge.
- Mayot won 11 of 13 hard-court first sets.
- He averaged 5.85 games won in set 1.
- Demin lost only two first sets in 12 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their recent hard-court sets have been decided without a tiebreak.
- Only five of the combined 25 hard-court matches had a tiebreak.
- Demin's first sets average 9.08 games.
- Mayot's second sets average 9.31 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Yaroslav Demin

10W 5L

6-1 6-3#268Charles Broom 6-4 6-4#297Carl Emil Overbeck

6-0 6-4#890Qian Sun

7-6(6) 6-3#724Martin Borisiouk

4-6 6-4 6-3#309Akira Santillan

6-4 6-2#368Kasidit Samrej

6-3 7-6(4)#466Alexandr Binda

2-6 6-4 6-3#250Matthew Dellavedova

6-2 7-5#641Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-3#309Akira Santillan

6-4 6-4#528Beibit Zhukayev

6-3 6-3#827Hanyi Liu

6-4 6-3#441Jack Loge

6-4 6-2#889Niklas Schell

7-6(0) 6-4—Yassine Smiej

Harold Mayot

11W 4L

6-2 6-3#420Kaichi Uchida 6-3 6-4#787Tianhui Zhang

7-6(5) 6-2#149Gabriel Diallo

3-6 6-2 2-0 ret.#152Clement Chidekh

6-4 2-6 6-4#169Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 7-5#414Niels Visker

6-3 7-5#69Titouan Droguet

5-7 6-2 4-2 ret.#282Murphy Cassone

6-3 4-6 7-5#102Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-3#209Edas Butvilas

6-4 2-6 7-6(2)#428Justin Boulais

4-6 6-3 7-5#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-3#169Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-4#152Clement Chidekh

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#158Clement Tabur

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YDYaroslav DeminDemin

Last 15

1–4

9 core stats · 4 even

Harold MayotMayotHM

Harold Mayot carries the stronger recent form — Yaroslav Demin's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.0%+4.8pp70.8%

1st Serve Won70.5%+0.9pp71.4%

2nd Serve Won51.7%+0.9pp52.6%

Aces / Match4.7—4.5

Double Faults / Match2.71.5 fewer1.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won39.5%—39.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted41.1%—41.2%

Break Pts Saved64.7%+11.5pp53.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.9%—51.8%

Serve · 0–4 · 1 even

66.0%1st Serve In+4.8pp70.8%

70.5%1st Serve Won+0.9pp71.4%

51.7%2nd Serve Won+0.9pp52.6%

4.7Aces / Match—4.5

2.7Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer1.2

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.5%Return Pts Won—39.2%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

41.1%Break Pts Converted—41.2%

64.7%Break Pts Saved+11.5pp53.2%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.9%Total Pts Won—51.8%