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Predictions graded

Yaroslav Demin #614Russia2Carl Emil Overbeck #2910

Sets 6-4 · 6-4Tue 27 Oct 2026, 04:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions6–186%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCarl Emil Overbeck · 323 places

Yaroslav Demin

Russia

Demin, 21, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ATP singles ranking is No. 624, reached on 4 November 2024.

Current ranking: #614
Peak ranking: #624 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Carl Emil Overbeck

Overbeck, 25, is a Danish right-hander listed with hard court as his preferred surface. He reached a career-best ranking of No. 293 on 24 August 2026.

Current ranking: #291
Peak ranking: #293 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Oct 2026, 15:21 · Europe/Bucharest

A 323-place ranking gap says Overbeck, but the hard-court evidence says Demin: 6-4 with 53.8% of games won against 2-3 and 46.9%.

Demin to win looks the likelier result, and at 2.1 the price holds up, as do 2.0 on him taking the first set and 2.0 on the second. Overbeck at 1.65 to win does not.

Context

Ranked 614, Demin has been starting hard-court matches far more convincingly than his ranking suggests.
Across 10 completed hard-court best-of-3 matches from 13 September to 26 October 2026, Demin took the first set 8-2 and surrendered only 3.7 games per opening set. Six of those 10 matches finished 2-0, with two 1-2 losses and two 0-2 losses, so the fast start has usually translated into a straight-set win. If the pattern repeats, Overbeck will be chasing from a set down and needing a response his own hard-court sample has rarely produced.
- Home setEvidence, hard best-of-3, 10 matches tracked from 2026-09-13 to 2026-10-26: set one won 8, lost 2, 5.5 games won against 3.7 lost.
- Same 10-match sample: scorelines of six 2-0 wins, two 1-2 losses and two 0-2 losses; two matches contained a tiebreak.
The second set has been Overbeck's weakest passage in a five-match hard-court sample.
In five completed hard-court best-of-3 matches between 5 July and 30 September 2026, Overbeck won the second set once and lost four times, taking 3.8 games against 5.6. Three of those five matches ended 0-2 and none contained a tiebreak, so his sets have tended to be decided rather than tight. A first-set deficit has usually become a straight-set defeat, which is the risk if Demin starts as he has been starting.
- Away setEvidence, hard best-of-3, five matches tracked from 2026-07-05 to 2026-09-30: set two won 1, lost 4, 3.8 games won against 5.6 lost.
- Same five-match sample: scorelines of three 0-2 losses, one 2-0 win and one 2-1 win; no tiebreaks played.
Overbeck's broader body of work is the main reason he sits well above Demin in the rankings.
Over the 15-match window ending 30 September 2026, Overbeck won 11 and lost four, taking 53.3% of points, 55.9% of games and 71.5% of first-serve points. That is the wider sample in this matchup and it explains why the ranking gap and the hard-court form point different ways, while his five hard-court matches are too few to settle the question. Demin's 9-6 mark over the same window length is the weaker record, so the form edge rests on a shorter, surface-specific read.
- Away last15: 11-4 record over 15 completed matches, latest on 2026-09-30.
- Same window: 53.3% total points won (1058/1986), 55.9% games won (174/311) and 71.5% first-serve points won (455/636).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Demin's current hard-court form and return numbers are stronger than Overbeck's.
- Demin is 6-4 on hard in his last 10 completed best-of-3 matches, winning 53.8% of games.
- Overbeck is 2-3 on hard in his last five, winning 46.9% of games.
- Demin won both of his 26 October hard matches; Overbeck lost his last hard match 4-6 2-6 on 30 September.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonYaroslav DeminEstimated chance56%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Demin's hard matches sit just above the line on average.
- Demin's 10 hard best-of-3 matches averaged 21.0 total games.
- Overbeck's five hard best-of-3 matches averaged 19.6 total games.
- Demin's latest two hard matches totaled 16 and 22 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The straight-set rate is high for both players in the hard-court samples.
- Demin played eight of 10 hard best-of-3 matches in straight sets.
- Overbeck played four of five hard best-of-3 matches in straight sets.
- Demin's scorelines include six 2-0 wins and two 0-2 losses.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Demin's first-set record is the strongest set split in the evidence.
- Demin won set one in 8 of 10 hard best-of-3 matches.
- Overbeck won set one in 2 of 5 hard best-of-3 matches.
- Demin's set-one games average is 5.5 won and 3.7 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYaroslav DeminEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Overbeck's second-set record on hard is weak, while Demin has won the majority of his.
- Demin won set two in 6 of 10 hard best-of-3 matches.
- Overbeck won set two in 1 of 5 hard best-of-3 matches.
- Overbeck's set-two games average is 3.8 won and 5.6 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonYaroslav DeminEstimated chance59%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The evidence points to mostly decisive sets without tiebreaks.
- Only 2 of Demin's 10 hard best-of-3 matches contained a tiebreak.
- None of Overbeck's five hard best-of-3 matches contained a tiebreak.
- Both hard setEvidence samples have low tiebreak counts.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their current hard ace rates combine below the line.
- Demin averages 5.2 aces per match on current hard.
- Overbeck averages 3.4 aces per match on current hard.
- Their combined current-hard average is 8.6 aces.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 10.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Their current hard double-fault rates combine above the line.
- Demin averages 3.2 double faults per match on current hard.
- Overbeck averages 3.8 double faults per match on current hard.
- Their combined current-hard average is 7.0 double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance54%

Previous match context available

Yaroslav Demin

9W 6L

6-0 6-4#890Qian Sun

7-6(6) 6-3#724Martin Borisiouk

4-6 6-4 6-3#309Akira Santillan

6-4 6-2#382Kasidit Samrej

6-3 7-6(4)#465Alexandr Binda

2-6 6-4 6-3#250Matthew Dellavedova

6-2 7-5#641Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-3#309Akira Santillan

6-4 6-4#528Beibit Zhukayev

6-3 6-3#822Hanyi Liu

6-4 6-3#506Jack Loge

6-4 6-2#889Niklas Schell

7-6(0) 6-4—Yassine Smiej

5-7 6-4 6-1#656Tristan Mccormick

6-1 2-6 6-4#483Alexander Ritschard

Carl Emil Overbeck

11W 4L

6-4 6-2#387Hugo Grenier

6-2 7-5#434Alafia Ayeni

6-3 6-3#559Luca Potenza

6-2 6-3#882Ryan Peniston

7-6(5) 7-6(7)#898Marcello Serafini

7-6(4) 6-4—Leonardo Primucci

6-3 4-6 6-1#695Stefano D'Agostino

7-6(4) 6-3#748Gabriele Maria Noce

6-4 6-3—Tobia Grandinetti

3-6 6-3 6-1#279Petr Nesterov

6-0 7-6(0)#457Ivan Ivanov

7-5 6-2#1443Jonas Eriksson Ziverts

6-4 6-2—Evangelos Kypriotis

6-0 6-3—Lorenzo Balducci

6-1 3-6 6-3#343Patrick Schoen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

YDYaroslav DeminDemin

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Carl Emil OverbeckOverbeckCO

Carl Emil Overbeck carries the stronger recent form — Yaroslav Demin's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In63.4%+0.9pp64.3%

1st Serve Won70.3%+1.2pp71.5%

2nd Serve Won48.5%+3.1pp51.6%

Aces / Match4.9+1.05.9

Double Faults / Match3.30.5 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won40.5%+1.7pp42.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.9%+5.5pp48.4%

Break Pts Saved63.5%+3.2pp60.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.4%+1.9pp53.3%

Serve · 0–5

63.4%1st Serve In+0.9pp64.3%

70.3%1st Serve Won+1.2pp71.5%

48.5%2nd Serve Won+3.1pp51.6%

4.9Aces / Match+1.05.9

3.3Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer2.8

Return · 0–1

40.5%Return Pts Won+1.7pp42.2%

Pressure · 1–1

42.9%Break Pts Converted+5.5pp48.4%

63.5%Break Pts Saved+3.2pp60.3%

Points · 0–1

51.4%Total Pts Won+1.9pp53.3%