ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Martin Borisiouk #867Belarus0Yaroslav Demin #614Russia2

Sets 6-7 · 3-6Sun 25 Oct 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–538%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYaroslav Demin · 253 places

Martin Borisiouk

Belarus

Belarusian right-hander, born 4 July 2000. Available profile data shows his strongest body of results has come on hard courts; no current injury concern was verified in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #867
Peak ranking: #736 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Yaroslav Demin

Russia

Demin, 21, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ATP singles ranking is No. 624, reached on 4 November 2024.

Current ranking: #614
Peak ranking: #624 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 00:48 · Europe/Bucharest

A Challenger qualifying opener in Ningbo where the lower-ranked Borisiouk (867) has the better recent hard-court results, while Demin (614) holds the ranking and the stronger serve numbers.

Borisiouk looks the slightly more likely winner, but 1.95 on him is about right rather than generous, and 1.85 on Demin asks more than a 4-4 hard-court run supports. Neither quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Borisiouk's 13 hard-court matches from 6 September to 18 October produced seven 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, one 1-2 loss and three 0-2 losses, so most were settled quickly. Even his latest defeat, 4-6 6-7 to Matthew Dellavedova on 18 October, finished in two sets. The sample is small and drawn from modest events, so it describes a pattern rather than a promise.
- Set evidence covers 13 completed hard-court matches, 6 September to 18 October 2026.
- Scorelines: seven 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, one 1-2 loss, three 0-2 losses.
- Three of the 13 matches contained a tiebreak.
Across eight hard-court matches from 13 September to 20 October, Demin has won the first set 6-2 while averaging 5.25 games to 3.88. The second set drops to 4-4, with 5.00 games won against 5.13 lost. That matters against Borisiouk, who has taken nine of 13 second sets on the surface, so an early lead for Demin need not carry through a tight match.
- Eight completed hard-court matches, 13 September to 20 October 2026.
- Set 1: six wins, two losses; 5.25 games won, 3.88 games lost.
- Set 2: four wins, four losses; 5.00 games won, 5.13 games lost.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Borisiouk's stronger recent hard-court win rate and second-set record make him slightly more likely despite the lower ranking.
- Hard-court record 9-4 in 13 tracked matches.
- Set 2 record 9-4 on hard.
- Demin is 4-4 on hard in 8 matches.
- Ranked 867 against Demin's 614.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMartin BorisioukEstimated chance52%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches average around or above the line, so over is slightly more likely.
- Borisiouk hard matches average 22.2 total games.
- Demin hard matches average 21.5 total games.
- Borisiouk total sets average 2.23.
- Demin total sets average 2.25.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second-set averages lean just above the line, making over slightly more likely.
- Borisiouk set-2 total games average 9.77.
- Demin set-2 total games average 10.13.
- Borisiouk has three set-2 tiebreaks in 13 hard matches.
- Demin has one set-2 tiebreak in 8 hard matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard-court matches for both ended in straight sets.
- 16 of 21 combined hard matches ended in straight sets.
- Borisiouk total sets average 2.23.
- Demin total sets average 2.25.
- Scorelines show few three-set results.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Borisiouk's second-set record is clearly stronger, making him more likely to take the second set.
- Borisiouk won the second set in 9 of 13 hard matches.
- Demin won the second set in 4 of 8 hard matches.
- Borisiouk set-2 games average 5.77 won, 4.00 lost.
- Demin set-2 games average 5.00 won, 5.13 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMartin BorisioukEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Demin's stronger first-set record makes him slightly more likely to take the opener.
- Demin won the first set in 6 of 8 hard matches.
- Demin set-1 games average 5.25 won, 3.88 lost.
- Borisiouk won the first set in 8 of 13 hard matches.
- Borisiouk set-1 games average 5.23 won, 4.69 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYaroslav DeminEstimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent hard-court matches for both did not feature a tiebreak.
- Borisiouk had a tiebreak in 3 of 13 hard matches.
- Demin had a tiebreak in 1 of 8 hard matches.
- Borisiouk set-2 tiebreaks: 3.
- Demin set-2 tiebreaks: 1.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance73%

Martin Borisiouk

11W 4L

6-4 7-6(4)#250Matthew Dellavedova

6-2 6-3#294Sergey Fomin

3-6 6-4 6-3#880Kristjan Tamm

6-4 6-3#1862Anthony Susanto

6-2 2-0 ret.#1701Lingxi Zhao

4-6 6-3 7-5#388Omar Jasika

6-4 6-4#880Kristjan Tamm

6-4 6-2#894Jumpei Yamasaki

6-3 7-6(3)#293Florent Bax

5-7 6-2 7-5#620Dominik Palan

6-4 6-3#748Dong Ju Kim

6-3 4-0 ret.#749Yuta Kawahashi

7-5 7-6(4)#475Koki Matsuda

6-3 6-2—Ethan Cook

6-4 6-2#615Takuya Kumasaka

Yaroslav Demin

8W 7L

4-6 6-4 6-3#309Akira Santillan

6-4 6-2#382Kasidit Samrej

6-3 7-6(4)#465Alexandr Binda

2-6 6-4 6-3#250Matthew Dellavedova

6-2 7-5#641Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-3#309Akira Santillan

6-4 6-4#526Beibit Zhukayev

6-3 6-3#822Hanyi Liu

6-4 6-3#506Jack Loge

6-4 6-2#889Niklas Schell

7-6(0) 6-4—Yassine Smiej

5-7 6-4 6-1#656Tristan Mccormick

6-1 2-6 6-4#483Alexander Ritschard

6-1 6-1—Pablo Aunion

3-6 6-4 6-4#755Carles Hernandez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MBMartin BorisioukBorisiouk

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Yaroslav DeminDeminYD

Martin Borisiouk carries the stronger recent form — Yaroslav Demin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1556.1%+6.3pp62.4%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1579.2%+8.2pp71.0%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1557.3%+8.2pp49.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/157.8+2.94.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.50.5 fewer3.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1540.4%—40.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1538.5%+5.1pp43.6%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1564.4%+3.6pp60.8%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1553.9%+2.5pp51.4%

Serve · 4–1

56.1%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+6.3pp62.4%

79.2%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+8.2pp71.0%

57.3%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+8.2pp49.1%

7.8Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+2.94.9

2.5Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.5 fewer3.0

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

40.4%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—40.7%

Pressure · 1–1

38.5%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+5.1pp43.6%

64.4%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp60.8%

Points · 1–0

53.9%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.5pp51.4%