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Predictions graded

Kaichi Uchida #417Japan0Harold Mayot #202France2

Sets 2-6 · 3-6Wed 28 Oct 2026, 04:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions6–367%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarold Mayot · 215 places

Kaichi Uchida

Japan

Uchida, 32, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ranking is No. 147, reached in May 2023.

Current ranking: #417
Peak ranking: #147 · 2023
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #202
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 15:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Mayot sits 215 ranking places above Uchida and has won 9 of 13 hard-court matches, so he is the likely winner of this second round.

The catch is the price: 1.07 on Mayot asks for a near-certainty he has not shown, especially after the first set. Uchida at 7 is the one quoted price that offers something, a potential-value play given his straight-set win on 26 October.

Context

Mayot's set-by-set split is the most distinctive part of his recent record, and it points to front-running rather than sustained dominance.
Mayot has built his 9-4 hard-court record on fast starts: 10 of 13 opening sets went his way, but only five of 13 second sets did. Against a player ranked 417, an early lead looks his likeliest route, which makes the first set the clearest expression of his edge. The second-set numbers also leave room for Uchida to extend the match if he survives the opener.
- Mayot won 10 of 13 first sets across 13 hard-court matches, 12 September to 27 October 2026.
- Mayot won 5 of 13 second sets across the same 13-match sample.
- Mayot's overall hard-court record in that window was 9-4.
Uchida's 3-10 surface record is poor, but the shape of those results is consistent rather than random.
Seven of Uchida's 13 hard-court matches ended 0-2 and all three of his wins came in straight sets, so his matches have tended to resolve quickly in one direction. That cuts both ways against Mayot: the same pattern supports a clean Mayot win, yet it also shows Uchida's wins, when they come, are not scraped together. A three-set Uchida victory is the least common outcome in his sample.
- Uchida's 13 hard-court matches, 29 June to 26 October 2026, produced seven 0-2 losses, three 2-0 wins and three 1-2 losses.
- All three of Uchida's wins in that sample were in straight sets.
- Uchida's hard-court record in the window was 3-10.
Mayot's scheduling is tighter than Uchida's, who last played on 26 October.
Mayot's opening win over Tianhui Zhang came on 27 October, the day before this second round, while Uchida's latest match was on 26 October. The scoreline was settled in two sets, a lighter load than a three-setter, but the turnaround is short. Nothing in the record suggests it will restrict him; it is simply a difference in the two players' preparation.
- Mayot beat Tianhui Zhang 6-3 6-4 on 27 October 2026 in the Ningbo hard-court event.
- Zhang was ranked 788 at the time of the match.
- Uchida's most recent completed match was on 26 October 2026.
Uchida's latest result is modest evidence, given the ranking of the opponent, but it is the most recent form on either side.
Uchida's most recent completed match was a 7-6 6-2 win over Ognjen Milic on 26 October, following losses to Zhizhen Zhang and Ilya Ivashka. The opener went to a tiebreak, and Uchida has been in four tiebreak matches across his 13 hard-court outings. Milic's ranking of 363 is well below Mayot's 202, so the result supports confidence more than it proves a level.
- Uchida beat Ognjen Milic 7-6 6-2 on 26 October 2026.
- Milic was ranked 363 at the time.
- Uchida lost his two previous matches in the sample, to Zhizhen Zhang and Ilya Ivashka.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot has won most of his hard-court matches and starts sets better than Uchida.
- Mayot is 9-4 on hard in the last 13; Uchida is 3-10
- Mayot is ranked 202, Uchida 417
- Mayot won 10 of 13 first sets on hard
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance70%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have been close to the line on average, with Mayot often involved in tight openers.
- Mayot's first sets average 9.85 total games
- Uchida's first sets average 9.54 total games
- Mayot had a first-set tiebreak in 2 of 13 hard matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have averaged around the line, and Uchida's have been slightly longer.
- Uchida's second sets average 9.69 total games
- Mayot's second sets average 9.31 total games
- Second sets had only one tiebreak across the two samples
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mayot's matches have tended to run past the line, while Uchida's have been shorter.
- Mayot's hard-court matches average 23.5 total games
- Uchida's hard-court matches average 21.3 total games
- Mayot went to a third set in 5 of 13 hard matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's stronger first-set record and higher ranking make him the clearer opening-set favourite.
- Mayot won 10 of 13 first sets on hard
- Uchida won 6 of 13 first sets on hard
- Mayot's first sets average 9.85 total games
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results account for most of both players' recent hard-court matches.
- Mayot won 2-0 in 5 of 13 hard matches
- Uchida lost 0-2 in 7 of 13 hard matches
- Uchida's three wins in the sample were all 2-0
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have weak second-set records, but Mayot's overall form gives him a slight edge.
- Mayot won 5 of 13 second sets on hard
- Uchida won 3 of 13 second sets on hard
- Mayot is 9-4 on hard in the last 13
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' hard-court matches did not include a tiebreak.
- Mayot had a tiebreak in 3 of 13 hard matches
- Uchida had a tiebreak in 4 of 13 hard matches
- Mayot's first sets average 9.85 total games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Prediction history

Harold Mayot: 3/6 recent winner projections matched

3 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Harold Mayot matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Harold Mayot6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#457Juan Cruz Martin Manzano2-0#200Harold Mayot

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·72%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#457Juan Cruz Martin Manzano2-0#200Harold Mayot

Harold Mayot to win

72%probability

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano won

Missed

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#233Alejandro Moro Canas2-0#201Harold Mayot

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·58%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#233Alejandro Moro Canas2-0#201Harold Mayot

Harold Mayot to win

58%probability

Alejandro Moro Canas won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#861Nicolas Moreno De Alboran0-2#203Harold Mayot

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#861Nicolas Moreno De Alboran0-2#203Harold Mayot

Harold Mayot to win

62%probability

Harold Mayot won

Matched

1 Jun·Centurion - South Africa

#214Harold Mayot2-1#670Yusuke Takahashi

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·65%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

Centurion - South Africa

#214Harold Mayot2-1#670Yusuke Takahashi

Harold Mayot to win

65%probability

Harold Mayot won

Matched

25 May·Centurion - South Africa

#217Harold Mayot2-0#542Millen Hurrion

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·72%

Matched

25 May 2026

Centurion - South Africa

#217Harold Mayot2-0#542Millen Hurrion

Harold Mayot to win

72%probability

Harold Mayot won

Matched

Previous match context available

Kaichi Uchida

3W 12L

7-6(4) 6-2#363Ognjen Milic

7-6(1) 6-3#170Zhizhen Zhang

6-2 6-4#221Ilya Ivashka

6-2 7-5#898Jesse Delaney

4-6 7-5 6-4#565Ryan Seggerman

7-6(8) 6-2#427Masamichi Imamura

6-1 6-2#135Federico Cina

3-6 6-2 6-3#215Rio Noguchi

6-3 7-5#817Linang Xiao

3-6 6-3 6-2#822Hanyi Liu

6-1 7-6(3)#788Tianhui Zhang

6-2 6-1#182Alexis Galarneau

6-4 6-3#319Daniel Milavsky

6-4 6-4#398Jack Kennedy

6-3 6-2#180Bernard Tomic

Harold Mayot

10W 5L

6-3 6-4#788Tianhui Zhang

7-6(5) 6-2#149Gabriel Diallo

3-6 6-2 2-0 ret.#152Clement Chidekh

6-4 2-6 6-4#169Tristan Schoolkate

6-3 7-5#414Niels Visker

6-3 7-5#69Titouan Droguet

5-7 6-2 4-2 ret.#268Murphy Cassone

6-3 4-6 7-5#102Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-3#209Edas Butvilas

6-4 2-6 7-6(2)#415Justin Boulais

4-6 6-3 7-5#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-3#169Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-4#152Clement Chidekh

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#158Clement Tabur

6-1 6-3#256Max Basing

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

KUKaichi UchidaUchida

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Harold MayotMayotHM

Harold Mayot carries the stronger recent form — Kaichi Uchida's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In53.5%+16.3pp69.8%

1st Serve Won69.9%—70.5%

2nd Serve Won48.2%+2.6pp50.8%

Aces / Match6.0+1.74.3

Double Faults / Match2.91.7 fewer1.2

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.5%+5.6pp38.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted32.8%+7.8pp40.6%

Break Pts Saved60.0%+5.5pp54.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won46.4%+4.4pp50.8%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

53.5%1st Serve In+16.3pp69.8%

69.9%1st Serve Won—70.5%

48.2%2nd Serve Won+2.6pp50.8%

6.0Aces / Match+1.74.3

2.9Double Faults / Match1.7 fewer1.2

Return · 0–1

32.5%Return Pts Won+5.6pp38.1%

Pressure · 1–1

32.8%Break Pts Converted+7.8pp40.6%

60.0%Break Pts Saved+5.5pp54.5%

Points · 0–1

46.4%Total Pts Won+4.4pp50.8%