ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Charles Broom #264United Kingdom0Yaroslav Demin #614Russia2

Sets 1-6 · 3-6Wed 28 Oct 2026, 05:30 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageCharles Broom · 350 places

Charles Broom

United Kingdom

Limited reliable public profile information found. Structured match data lists Broom at No. 289.

Current ranking: #264
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Yaroslav Demin

Russia

Demin, 21, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ATP singles ranking is No. 624, reached on 4 November 2024.

Current ranking: #614
Peak ranking: #624 · 2024
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 15:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Broom carries the ranking and the stronger hard-court record into the Ningbo second round; the question is whether Demin's fast first sets and busy winning week can stretch it.

Broom winning, most likely in two sets, is the fair reading. No reviewed price is worth taking: 1.4 on Broom, 1.45 on Broom to win the first set and 1.5 on the second all ask more than the record supports, and 2.75 on Demin does not reach the other side.

Context

The pattern points to a two-set finish if Broom controls his service games: he averages 2.27 sets and 20.9 total games per match in that window. The counterweight is that three of his four defeats came in a deciding set, so Demin forcing a third is not far-fetched.
- Broom's 15 hard-court matches between 7 August and 27 October include ten 2-0 scorelines, three 1-2 losses, one 2-1 win and one 0-2 loss.
- He averages 2.27 sets and 20.9 total games per match across the sample, with a 12-3 first-set and 12-3 second-set record.
Only one of those 11 first sets reached a tiebreak, and his second-set record slips to 7-4 with 10.0 total games, so the early phase is where he has been most secure. Broom has also started strongly on this surface, which makes the opener the least comfortable part of the match for him.
- Demin's 11 hard-court matches from 13 September to 27 October show a 9-2 first-set record with 5.5 games won and 3.7 lost on average.
- His second-set record in the same sample is 7-4 with 10.0 total games per set, and only one first set went to a tiebreak.
Overbeck sits 317 places above Demin in the rankings, making this the best result on his recent list and a reminder that his 614 standing understates his current hard-court form. It is still a single match, and one straight-set win does not establish a trend across the week.
- Demin beat Carl Emil Overbeck, ranked 297, 6-4 6-4 on 27 October 2026, winning 12 games to 8.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Charles Broom

1.40fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 71.4%

−4.4ppshort

Broom has the better ranking and stronger serve-and-return numbers on the same surface.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Charles Broom

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

−9.0ppshort

Broom's set-one record is strong and his serve gives him the early edge.

Set 2 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Charles Broom

1.50fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 66.7%

−7.7ppshort

Broom's second-set record is stronger and his second serve is more reliable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Broom has the better ranking and stronger serve-and-return numbers on the same surface.
- Broom is 11-4 on hard in the last 15 with 73.5% sets won.
- He wins 59.1% of hard-court games and saves 73.4% of break points.
- Demin is 7-4 on hard but wins 54.3% of games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCharles BroomEstimated chance67%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Broom's wins are straight-set, which keeps total games near or below the line.
- Broom averages 20.9 total games on hard.
- Demin averages 20.9 total games on hard.
- Broom's straight-set wins are common in his sample.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Demin's second sets have been slightly longer than the line on average.
- Demin's second sets average 10.0 games on hard.
- Broom's second sets average 9.33 games on hard.
- Demin has one second-set tiebreak in 11 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both first-set averages are below 9.5 games, pointing to a shorter opening set.
- Broom's first sets average 9.47 games on hard.
- Demin's first sets average 9.27 games on hard.
- Both players have low first-set tiebreak counts.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results dominate both hard-court samples.
- Broom's hard-court matches average 2.27 sets.
- Demin's hard-court matches average 2.18 sets.
- Straight-set scorelines dominate both hard-court samples.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Broom's set-one record is strong and his serve gives him the early edge.
- Broom is 12-3 in first sets on hard.
- Demin is 9-2 in first sets on hard.
- Broom wins 71% of first-serve points.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCharles BroomEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Broom's second-set record is stronger and his second serve is more reliable.
- Broom is 12-3 in second sets on hard.
- Demin is 7-4 in second sets on hard.
- Broom wins 56.4% of second-serve points on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostCharles BroomEstimated chance59%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined tiebreak rate is low in the available hard-court samples.
- Broom has two tiebreak matches in 15 hard-court matches.
- Demin has two tiebreak matches in 11 hard-court matches.
- The combined tiebreak rate is low.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Demin's double-fault rate pushes the combined average above the line.
- Broom averages 1.7 double faults per hard-court match.
- Demin averages 3.1 double faults per hard-court match.
- Their combined average is 4.8 double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined hard-court ace average sits just under 9.5.
- Broom averages 4.3 aces per match on hard.
- Demin averages 5.1 aces per hard-court match.
- Their combined hard-court average is about 9.4 aces.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Charles Broom

11W 4L

6-3 6-3#309Akira Santillan

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#361Alibek Kachmazov

6-2 6-7(5) 6-1#354Mathys Erhard

6-2 6-2—Hongjin Qi

7-5 6-3#450George Loffhagen

6-4 5-7 6-1#289Oliver Tarvet

6-4 6-2#256Max Basing

6-4 6-1#698Patrick Brady

6-4 6-1#528Leonardo Rossi

6-4 5-7 6-1#289Oliver Tarvet

7-5 6-3#696Alex Rybakov

6-1 6-1#641Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-2#289Oliver Tarvet

6-1 7-5#380Lui Maxted

6-4 6-0—Oscar Brown

Yaroslav Demin

10W 5L

6-4 6-4#297Carl Emil Overbeck

6-0 6-4#890Qian Sun

7-6(6) 6-3#724Martin Borisiouk

4-6 6-4 6-3#309Akira Santillan

6-4 6-2#382Kasidit Samrej

6-3 7-6(4)#465Alexandr Binda

2-6 6-4 6-3#250Matthew Dellavedova

6-2 7-5#641Filip Peliwo

6-3 6-3#309Akira Santillan

6-4 6-4#528Beibit Zhukayev

6-3 6-3#822Hanyi Liu

6-4 6-3#506Jack Loge

6-4 6-2#889Niklas Schell

7-6(0) 6-4—Yassine Smiej

5-7 6-4 6-1#642Tristan Mccormick

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CBCharles BroomBroom

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Yaroslav DeminDeminYD

Charles Broom carries the stronger recent form — Yaroslav Demin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In62.3%+2.3pp64.6%

1st Serve Won71.0%—71.2%

2nd Serve Won56.4%+6.5pp49.9%

Aces / Match4.3+0.75.0

Double Faults / Match1.71.4 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won40.9%+1.3pp39.6%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted48.6%+6.5pp42.1%

Break Pts Saved73.4%+7.4pp66.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.3%+1.5pp51.8%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

62.3%1st Serve In+2.3pp64.6%

71.0%1st Serve Won—71.2%

56.4%2nd Serve Won+6.5pp49.9%

4.3Aces / Match+0.75.0

1.7Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

40.9%Return Pts Won+1.3pp39.6%

Pressure · 2–0

48.6%Break Pts Converted+6.5pp42.1%

73.4%Break Pts Saved+7.4pp66.0%

Points · 1–0

53.3%Total Pts Won+1.5pp51.8%