KazakhstanATP AlmatyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Nikoloz Basilashvili #128Georgia2Adrian Mannarino #79France0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Fri 23 Oct 2026, 06:35 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAdrian Mannarino · 49 places

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

Basilashvili reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 16 in May 2019. The supplied current ranking is No. 132; no reliable current source established a specific fitness-related reason for that gap.

Current ranking: #128
Peak ranking: #16 · 2019
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Adrian Mannarino

France

Mannarino, 38, is the left-hander in this matchup and reached career-high No. 17 in January 2024. He has said he enjoys playing on all surfaces.

Current ranking: #79
Peak ranking: #17 · 2024
Current age: 38
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Oct 2026, 20:34 · Europe/Bucharest

Basilashvili has not dropped a set in four Almaty matches; Mannarino has needed three sets twice this week and has lost nine of his last twelve second sets on hard courts.

Basilashvili is the narrow favourite to reach the semi-final, and the one price that stands out is him to win the second set at 1.73. His 1.73 match price asks too much; Mannarino's 2.10 does not appeal.

Context

Rublev was the fourth seed and the highest-ranked player in this half of the draw, so this is the result that puts Mannarino into the quarter-final and the best win of his week. Mannarino's own reading was that he would have lost at his normal level and had to play above it, which frames the win as a one-off escalation rather than a new baseline. The limitation sits with the opponent: Rublev arrived having lost his two previous matches after reaching the Hangzhou final, so part of the opening came from Rublev's dip.
- Mannarino beat fourth seed Andrey Rublev 6-4 3-6 6-3 in the Almaty round of 16 .
- He saved a break point at 3-2 down in the deciding set, broke in the next game and converted a third match point after missing two.
- He said afterwards that playing his normal level would have lost him the match and that he had to play better than usual to win it.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Four completed matches in five days, every one in straight sets and the first three finished inside 93 minutes, have given him tournament rhythm with unusually little time on court. That matters in this quarter-final because Mannarino, 38, needed three sets in both of his Almaty wins, so the workload comparison runs towards the qualifier. The limitation is the calibre of opposition: Cilic at No. 84 and Diaz Acosta at No. 71 sit below the seeded player Mannarino has just beaten, so clean scorelines here are not proof he repeats it against a top-25 scalp.
- Basilashvili beat Taro Daniel 6-2 7-5 on 17 October and Adam Walton 6-4 7-6(4) on 18 October in Almaty qualifying, in 1h18 and 1h33.
- He beat Marin Cilic 6-2 7-5 in 1h21 in the first round and Facundo Diaz Acosta 6-2 6-4 in the second round.
- In Chengdu in September he qualified and beat Miomir Kecmanovic, Botic van de Zandschulp and Jenson Brooksby before losing a semi-final to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:32 · Europe/Bucharest
A retirement at 6-3 2-2 says nothing about how the match would have finished, so the head-to-head is 1-0 on paper and close to empty as evidence of level. What it does establish is the recent match-up: a left-handed counterpuncher against Basilashvili's flat, high-risk hitting on a quick indoor court, played under the same October conditions and on the same continent. The relevant update is that the player who stopped has since completed eight sets in five days here, so the last fortnight offers no continuing physical signal in either direction.
- Basilashvili retired in the Shanghai first round on 7 October 2026 with Mannarino leading 6-3 2-2.
- Basilashvili had come through Shanghai qualifying with three-set wins over Andre Ilagan and Liam Draxl.
- Since that retirement he has won four straight-set matches in Almaty between 17 and .
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:32 · Europe/Bucharest
A low-bounce indoor court at altitude reduces the reward for rally tolerance and raises the value of a flat, early strike and a repeatable serve, which is the setting both men have negotiated this week. It also shortens the adjustment window for anyone arriving from a slower or outdoor event, and both players came here directly from the Asian swing. The usable limit is the sample: twelve qualifying matches is a thin base for a hold rate, and the 2024-25 figures come from completed editions, so the number is consistent with a fast court rather than a precise measurement of it.
- Almaty Arena stages the event on indoor hard courts at about 800 metres of altitude.
- The 2026 qualifying draw produced 84% service holds and 75% first-serve points won across 12 matches.
- The 2024-25 event averages were 83% holds, 73% first-serve points won and 0.60 aces per game.
ReportedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 20:32 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Nikoloz Basilashvili

1.73fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 57.8%

−0.8ppshort

Basilashvili's current straight-set run and stronger second-set record make him the slimmer favourite.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Basilashvili's current straight-set run and stronger second-set record make him the slimmer favourite.
- Basilashvili is 11-2 in his last 13 hard-court matches and 9 of those wins were in straight sets.
- He has won all four Almaty matches without dropping a set, including 6-2 6-4 over Facundo Diaz Acosta.
- Mannarino is ranked 79 to Basilashvili's 128, but Mannarino has lost 6 of 14 recent hard-court matches.
- Mannarino's set2 record is only 3-9 in the format-matched sample.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets tend to reach at least 10 games.
- Basilashvili's set2 total-games average is 11.08.
- Mannarino's set2 total-games average is 10.0.
- Basilashvili has four set2 tiebreaks in 13 format-matched matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mannarino's three-set matches push the total above the line even though Basilashvili has had quick wins.
- Basilashvili's format-matched average is 23.0 total games; Mannarino's is 24.0.
- Mannarino's last two Almaty matches lasted 28 and 32 games.
- Basilashvili's four Almaty wins averaged about 20.3 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili's early breaks have produced short opening sets.
- Basilashvili's set1 total-games average is 9.54.
- Three of Basilashvili's four Almaty first sets finished 6-2 or better for him.
- Mannarino's set1 total-games average is 10.0.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Mannarino has repeatedly lost the second set even when winning matches.
- Basilashvili's set2 record is 10-3 in the format-matched sample.
- Mannarino's set2 record is 3-9.
- Mannarino lost the second set in all four of his recent 2-1 wins.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Basilashvili's fast starts and Mannarino's second-set dips point to Basilashvili taking the opener.
- Basilashvili has won the first set in 11 of 13 format-matched matches.
- He won the opening set in all four Almaty matches.
- Mannarino's set1 record is 8-4.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNikoloz BasilashviliEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili's current straight-set form makes a two-set finish more likely.
- Basilashvili has won all four Almaty matches in straight sets.
- Nine of Basilashvili's 13 format-matched matches ended 2-0.
- Mannarino's set2 record is 3-9 in the format-matched sample.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Basilashvili's straight-set wins have often avoided tiebreaks.
- Basilashvili's four Almaty wins included only one tiebreak.
- Mannarino's win over Rublev had no tiebreak.
- The combined format-matched tiebreak rate is about 40%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance56%

Prediction history

Nikoloz Basilashvili: 4/10 recent winner projections matched

4 of 10 comparable winner projections favouring Nikoloz Basilashvili matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Nikoloz Basilashvili10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#744Michael Vrbensky1-2#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#744Michael Vrbensky1-2#133Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Nikoloz Basilashvili won

Matched

20 Jul·ATP Estoril

#430Tiago Torres2-0#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#430Tiago Torres2-0#135Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Tiago Torres won

Missed

7 Jul·Braunschweig - Germany

#111Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#129Vilius Gaubas

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·55%

Missed

7 Jul 2026

Braunschweig - Germany

#111Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#129Vilius Gaubas

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

55%probability

Vilius Gaubas won

Missed

30 Jun·Milan - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-0#112Nikoloz Basilashvili

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·65%

Missed

30 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-0#112Nikoloz Basilashvili

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

65%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#118Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#182Elias Ymer

BetBugsNikoloz Basilashvili to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#118Nikoloz Basilashvili1-2#182Elias Ymer

Nikoloz Basilashvili to win

62%probability

Elias Ymer won

Missed

Head-to-Head

1-2 (3 meetings)

L6-3 2-2 ret.Nikoloz Basilashvili#128vAdrian Mannarino#79Oct 7, 2026

L6-2 6-4Nikoloz Basilashvili#128vAdrian Mannarino#79Nov 1, 2021

W7-6(7) 7-6(3)Nikoloz Basilashvili#128vAdrian Mannarino#79Feb 8, 2017

3 total meetings

Previous match context available

Nikoloz Basilashvili

11W 4L

6-2 6-4#71Facundo Diaz Acosta 6-2 7-5#84Marin Cilic 6-4 7-6(4)#97Adam Walton 6-2 7-5#179Taro Daniel

6-3 2-2 ret.#79Adrian Mannarino

5-7 7-5 6-4#197Liam Draxl

6-3 6-7(1) 7-5#203Andre Ilagan

4-6 6-4 6-3#13Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

6-4 7-6(4)#99Jenson Brooksby

6-4 7-5#38Botic Van De Zandschulp

7-6(3) 6-4#57Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-2#135Federico Cina

6-2 6-0—Hanlei Lu

2-6 7-6(6) ret.#597Naoya Honda

6-3 7-6(1)#675Seongchan Hong

Adrian Mannarino

9W 6L

6-4 3-6 6-3#22Andrey Rublev 7-6(4) 4-6 6-3#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-2 6-4#25Karen Khachanov

6-1 4-6 6-3#6Flavio Cobolli

6-3 2-2 ret.#128Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 6-4#74Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(5)#57Miomir Kecmanovic

6-7(6) 6-3 6-2#47Denis Shapovalov

6-4 6-4#31Alejandro Tabilo

7-6(9) 6-2#248Juncheng Shang

6-3 7-5#515Matisse Bobichon

6-2 6-4#374Dan Added

6-3 6-1 6-1#19Alexander Bublik

4-6 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-3#50Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-1 7-6(5)#89Lorenzo Sonego

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NBNikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Adrian MannarinoMannarinoAM

Nikoloz Basilashvili carries the stronger recent form — Adrian Mannarino's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In58.0%+7.1pp65.1%

1st Serve Won78.0%+4.8pp73.2%

2nd Serve Won54.9%+3.3pp51.6%

Aces / Match9.3+3.75.6

Double Faults / Match2.81.6 fewer1.2

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.5%+3.7pp35.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted38.5%+5.2pp33.3%

Break Pts Saved58.7%—58.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.2%+3.1pp50.1%

Serve · 3–2

58.0%1st Serve In+7.1pp65.1%

78.0%1st Serve Won+4.8pp73.2%

54.9%2nd Serve Won+3.3pp51.6%

9.3Aces / Match+3.75.6

2.8Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer1.2

Return · 1–0

39.5%Return Pts Won+3.7pp35.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

38.5%Break Pts Converted+5.2pp33.3%

58.7%Break Pts Saved—58.1%

Points · 1–0

53.2%Total Pts Won+3.1pp50.1%