KazakhstanATP AlmatyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Adrian Mannarino #83France2Aleksandar Vukic #115Australia1

Sets 7-6 · 4-6 · 6-3Mon 19 Oct 2026, 08:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions6–367%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAdrian Mannarino · 32 places

Adrian Mannarino

France

Mannarino, 38, is the left-hander in this matchup and reached career-high No. 17 in January 2024. He has said he enjoys playing on all surfaces.

Current ranking: #83
Peak ranking: #17 · 2024
Current age: 38
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Aleksandar Vukic

Australia

Vukic, 30, is a right-hander who lists hard courts as his favourite surface. He reached a career-high No. 48 in August 2023.

Current ranking: #115
Peak ranking: #48 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 04:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Mannarino brings the best single result on show — a win over world No.

7 Flavio Cobolli in Shanghai — but Vukic has won both 2024 meetings and has been the sturdier man in second sets. Mannarino still looks the likelier winner, though 1.45 is too thin a price for that. Of the prices reviewed, Vukic to win the second set at 2.4 and Vukic to win the match at 2.75 are the two that offer something.

Context

he beat Flavio Cobolli, the sixth seed and world No. 7, 6-1 4-6 6-3 in Shanghai, his first top-10 win since the 2025 US Open. That is the clearest recent evidence that his level sits above the No. 83 ranking he brings to Almaty, and it makes him a harder first-round opponent than the ranking alone implies. The counterweight is immediate: Karen Khachanov beat him 6-2 6-4 in the next round, a sixth defeat in six main-tour meetings between them, and he has not played since .
- Mannarino beat Cobolli 6-1 4-6 6-3 in the Shanghai second round
- It was his first top-10 win since the 2025 US Open and his 12th career top-10 win
- At 38 years and 111 days he is the second-oldest French player to beat a top-10 opponent since 1990, after Gael Monfils
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 04:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Their only other recorded meeting, in August 2024, also opened with a tiebreak, so Mannarino has yet to break Vukic's serve early in this matchup. It is a two-match sample from two years ago, and Mannarino's 9 October win over world No. 7 Flavio Cobolli is the fresher evidence of his level.
- Vukic beat Mannarino 7-6(4) 6-3 on 17 October 2024
- Vukic took the opening tiebreak 7-4 and then the second set 6-3
His first sets in the same sample were level at 6-6, so the drop has come after an even start rather than from being outplayed throughout. Vukic's 8-5 second-set record over 13 matches points the same way, though both samples are small and conditioned on matches reaching a second set.
- Set 2 record of 3 wins and 9 losses in 12 completed hard-court best-of-3 matches, 4 August to 11 October 2026
- Set 2 average of 4.58 games won and 5.50 lost across those 12 matches
- Set 1 record of 6 wins and 6 losses in the same sample
Vukic's only completed win in the fortnight before Almaty was 6-2 6-3 over world No. 247 Hayato Matsuoka in Jinan, and Tomas Machac then beat him 6-2 6-1 in the round of 16 the next day. He arrives with three days between his last match and this first round, against eight for Mannarino, and with a one-sided defeat as his most recent reference point. The caveat is that both the level and the venue change completely: Jinan was a Challenger and Machac is a former top-20 player ranked No. 75, so the scoreline says more about the opponent than about what Almaty will ask of him.
- Vukic beat Hayato Matsuoka 6-2 6-3 in Jinan
- Tomas Machac beat him 6-2 6-1 in the Jinan round of 16
- Mannarino's previous match was on 11 October, giving him a longer gap than Vukic
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 04:24 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mannarino has the higher ranking and the clearly stronger recent scalp, while Vukic is coming off a heavy loss on a short turnaround.
- 6 wins, 8 losses across 14 hard-court matches in the recent window
- Set 1 record 6-6 and set 2 record 3-9 in 12 hard-court best-of-3 matches
- Beat world No. 7 Flavio Cobolli 6-1 4-6 6-3 in Shanghai on 9 October
- Ranked 83 against Vukic at 115
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAdrian MannarinoEstimated chance55%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in this matchup have habitually gone long, with both players averaging close to or above ten games.
- Mannarino's first sets averaged 9.75 total games with 4 tiebreaks in 12
- Vukic's first sets averaged 10.62 total games with 5 tiebreaks in 13
- Both previous meetings opened with a tiebreak first set
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets hover around ten games, leaving the over narrowly preferred.
- Mannarino's second sets averaged 10.08 total games
- Vukic's second sets averaged 9.92 total games with 3 tiebreaks in 13
- Only one of Mannarino's twelve second sets went to a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' match lengths pull in opposite directions and sit close to the line, so a shorter match is only marginally favoured.
- Mannarino averaged 22.33 total games per hard-court match
- Vukic averaged 24.46 total games per hard-court match
- Combined average lands just under the 23.5 line
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players finish most of their hard-court matches in straight sets, pointing toward a two-set outcome.
- Mannarino's average match length was 2.25 sets, with 9 of 12 decided in two sets
- Vukic's average was 2.38 sets, with 8 of 13 decided in two sets
- Head-to-head scorelines were 7-6 6-3 and 7-6 2-6 6-1
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Vukic has held his level far better in second sets this window while Mannarino has dropped nine of twelve.
- Set 2 wins 8 of 13, losses 5, averaging 5.23 games won and 4.69 lost
- Mannarino's set 2 record is 3 wins, 9 losses, averaging 4.58 won and 5.50 lost
- Vukic's second sets averaged 9.92 total games
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAleksandar VukicEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players split first sets almost evenly, so the small overall match edge is enough to tilt the opener slightly.
- Set 1 wins 6 of 12 hard-court matches, losses 6
- First sets averaged 9.75 total games with 4 tiebreaks
- Vukic's set 1 record is 7 wins, 6 losses with 5 tiebreaks
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAdrian MannarinoEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players reach tiebreaks in roughly half their matches, and their prior meetings opened with one.
- Mannarino had a tiebreak in 5 of 12 hard-court matches
- Vukic had a tiebreak in 7 of 13 hard-court matches
- Both previous meetings included a tiebreak first set
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance53%

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L7-6(4) 6-3Adrian Mannarino#83vAleksandar Vukic#115Oct 17, 2024

L7-6(5) 2-6 6-1Adrian Mannarino#83vAleksandar Vukic#115Aug 19, 2024

2 total meetings

Adrian Mannarino

7W 8L

6-2 6-4#27Karen Khachanov

6-1 4-6 6-3#7Flavio Cobolli

6-3 2-2 ret.#124Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 6-4#65Pablo Carreno-Busta

7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(5)#61Miomir Kecmanovic

6-7(6) 6-3 6-2#42Denis Shapovalov

6-4 6-4#30Alejandro Tabilo

7-6(9) 6-2#214Juncheng Shang

6-3 7-5#571Matisse Bobichon

6-2 6-4#391Dan Added

6-3 6-1 6-1#22Alexander Bublik

4-6 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-3#54Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-1 7-6(5)#87Lorenzo Sonego

6-1 6-4#42Denis Shapovalov

7-6(3) 6-4#96Jacob Fearnley

Aleksandar Vukic

6W 9L

6-2 6-1#75Tomas Machac

6-2 6-3#247Hayato Matsuoka

6-3 6-3#187Pavel Kotov

4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(5)#420Jie Cui

6-3 4-2 ret.#479Evan Zhu

6-4 6-4#620Ryan Seggerman

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#76Kyrian Jacquet

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4 3-6 6-4#137Rei Sakamoto

6-4 6-4#135Stefanos Sakellaridis

7-6(5) 6-1#76Kyrian Jacquet

6-7(3) 6-3 6-4#149Mark Lajal

6-3 7-6(4)#159Darwin Blanch

6-7(2) 7-6(5) 6-4#67Daniel Altmaier

7-6(4) 6-2#132Tomas Barrios Vera

6-3 5-7 6-3#25Lorenzo Musetti

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAdrian MannarinoMannarino

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Aleksandar VukicVukicAV

Aleksandar Vukic carries the stronger recent form — Adrian Mannarino's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In61.7%+4.1pp57.6%

1st Serve Won71.7%+1.3pp73.0%

2nd Serve Won49.4%+2.7pp52.1%

Aces / Match4.7+3.17.8

Double Faults / Match1.80.5 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won35.6%—35.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted36.9%+4.6pp32.3%

Break Pts Saved56.7%+3.3pp60.0%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.9%+1.0pp49.9%

Serve · 2–3

61.7%1st Serve In+4.1pp57.6%

71.7%1st Serve Won+1.3pp73.0%

49.4%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp52.1%

4.7Aces / Match+3.17.8

1.8Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer2.3

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

35.6%Return Pts Won—35.4%

Pressure · 1–1

36.9%Break Pts Converted+4.6pp32.3%

56.7%Break Pts Saved+3.3pp60.0%

Points · 0–1

48.9%Total Pts Won+1.0pp49.9%