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Predictions graded

Andrea Pellegrino #144Italy0Svyatoslav Gulin #545Russia2

Sets 5-7 · 0-6Fri 23 Oct 2026, 15:45 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions8–189%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrea Pellegrino · 401 places

Andrea Pellegrino

Italy

Italian right-hander with a clay-weighted record; reported career titles were all at Challenger/ITF level on clay. No current injury, withdrawal, or return-from-absence signal was surfaced in the prescribed searches.

Current ranking: #144
Peak ranking: #126
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Svyatoslav Gulin

Russia

Russian player born 4 December 2002. Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 358 in June 2025; no reliable preferred-surface designation was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #545
Peak ranking: #358 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 22 Oct 2026, 21:09 · Europe/Bucharest

Gulin is ranked 545 but has won 10 of 13 clay matches since early September, nine in straight sets; Pellegrino is 4-7 on clay since July and has played four games in Lisbon.

Pellegrino's freshness and far higher ranking cut the other way. Gulin at 2.6 to win the match, 2.4 for the first set and 4.75 for a 2-0 win all offer something at those prices; Pellegrino at 1.44 does not.

Context

Pellegrino's last completed match was a three-set loss to Lorenzo Giustino on 13 October, and his only tennis in Lisbon amounts to four games before a walkover. Gulin has spent nine sets across four matches in five days, most recently a 1-6, 6-0, 6-2 win over Andrej Martin, so the recovery imbalance runs against the ranking gap between No. 144 and No. 545. Gulin's heavier load arrives with a quick turnaround into the quarterfinals, while Pellegrino has three days off but no completed match since 13 October. Rest is not the same as rhythm: four games say little about how his game will hold up in a long clay match, and Gulin's extra matches are the only recent evidence either player has produced.
- Martin Tiffon retired at 1-3 in the first set of the first round after receiving treatment for an abdominal problem
- Passaro did not take the court for the second round, advancing Pellegrino by walkover
- Gulin has played four Lisbon matches and nine sets across five days
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 21:08 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore Lisbon quarterfinal listingwww.flashscore.co · 22 Oct 2026
The reversal is the clearest evidence of Gulin's current level in Lisbon: the opponent who conceded three games against him in qualifying won only two a day later. For a player ranked No. 545 meeting a top-150 clay specialist, that result shows he can beat a higher-ranked opponent on this surface rather than merely surviving qualifying. The limitation is timing and familiarity, since a second match in two days against the same opponent invites simple explanations on both sides, so the swing is better read as current-week form than as a settled level.
- Gulin lost the qualifying decider to Schoen 6-0, 6-3
- The main draw paired Schoen with Gulin as a lucky loser
- Gulin won the first-round rematch 6-1, 6-1
ConfirmedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 21:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Gulin lost the first set 1-6 and then won 12 of the last 14 games, a swing that carried him into his first Challenger quarterfinal of the season. That matters here because it shows he can reset inside a match on clay instead of fading after a bad set, which is exactly the scenario a fresher Pellegrino will try to create by starting quickly. The counterpoint is Martin's situation: at 37 he had come through qualifying and a first-round match as a lucky loser, so the comeback came against a tiring opponent and says less about Gulin's ability to turn a match against a rested one.
- Gulin lost the first set 1-6 to Martin and won the next two 6-0, 6-2
- The win put him into a first Challenger quarterfinal of the 2026 season
- Martin, 37, had entered the main draw as a lucky loser and won a first-round match two days earlier
ReportedSources checked 22 Oct 2026, 21:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Pellegrino has been the stronger player in second sets than in first sets on clay this season.
That second-set edge did not carry into results: he went 4-7 in the same sample, with all four wins in straight sets. The split points to resistance arriving after a slow start rather than at the opening, which matters against an opponent who has won nine of 13 first sets on clay.
- 11 clay matches, 8 July to 13 October 2026
- Set two: 8 wins, 3 losses; 5.27 games won and 3.82 lost on average
- Set one: 5 wins, 6 losses; 4.82 games won and 5.09 lost on average

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Gulin has the stronger clay results and is match-tough, while Pellegrino has played very little this week and has struggled for wins.
- Gulin is 10-3 on clay in his last 13 matches, with nine straight-set wins.
- Pellegrino is 4-7 on clay in the same window.
- Gulin has played four matches this week; Pellegrino has completed only four games.
- Pellegrino's clay set-one record is 5-6.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance53%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gulin's matches are usually short, and his straight-set wins keep the total games down.
- Gulin's clay matches average 19.3 total games.
- Gulin has nine 2-0 wins in 13 clay matches.
- Gulin's clay set-one average total is 9.9 games.
- Pellegrino's clay set-two average total is 9.1 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have generally been short on clay, with Gulin in particular winning by wide margins.
- Pellegrino's second sets average 9.1 total games on clay.
- Gulin's second sets average 8.8 total games on clay.
- Gulin's second-set games lost average is 3.3.
- Pellegrino's second-set games won average is 5.3.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First sets on clay have averaged just under ten games, which slightly favors under.
- Pellegrino's first sets average 9.9 total games on clay.
- Gulin's first sets average 9.9 total games on clay.
- Gulin's first-set games lost average is 4.6.
- Pellegrino's first-set games lost average is 5.1.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' wins tend to be straight-set, and Gulin has been especially efficient on clay.
- Gulin has nine 2-0 wins in 13 clay matches.
- Pellegrino has four 2-0 wins and only two 0-2 losses.
- Gulin's clay matches average 2.08 sets.
- Pellegrino's wins in the sample were all 2-0.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Gulin has a much better first-set record on clay, while Pellegrino has often started slowly.
- Gulin is 9-4 in first sets on clay.
- Pellegrino is 5-6 in first sets on clay.
- Gulin's first-set game average is 5.3 won and 4.6 lost.
- Pellegrino's first-set game average is 4.8 won and 5.1 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gulin has been strong in second sets on clay, though the records are close.
- Gulin is 10-3 in second sets on clay.
- Pellegrino is 8-3 in second sets on clay.
- Gulin's second-set game average is 5.5 won and 3.3 lost.
- Gulin is 10-3 overall on clay.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been infrequent in both players' clay matches.
- Pellegrino has two tiebreaks in 11 clay matches.
- Gulin has three tiebreaks in 13 clay matches.
- Gulin has nine straight-set wins in 13 clay matches.
- Pellegrino's second sets average 9.1 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance76%

Previous match context available

Andrea Pellegrino

6W 9L

1-3 ret.#211Pol Martin Tiffon

6-4 2-6 6-1#231Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 3-6 6-1#138Matej Dodig

6-3 6-2#340Valerio Aboian

7-6(8) 6-4#424Mika Petkovic

4-6 6-3 6-4#218Colton Smith

6-3 6-2#41Zizou Bergs

3-6 6-3 6-4#134Nishesh Basavareddy

6-3 6-2#236Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-4 6-0#314Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-3 5-7 6-4#199Gonzalo Bueno

6-3 6-2—Joao Silva

7-6(3) 6-7(7) 6-3#22Andrey Rublev

6-3 6-2#187Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

3-6 6-4 6-3#230Raul Brancaccio

Svyatoslav Gulin

10W 5L

1-6 6-0 6-2#358Andrej Martin 6-1 6-1#343Patrick Schoen 6-0 6-3#343Patrick Schoen 6-4 6-4—Takeru Yuzuki

7-5 6-4#183Gianluca Cadenasso

7-5 6-2#359Franco Agamenone

6-2 7-5#623Pedro Rodenas

6-1 6-1—Tilen Kovac

6-4 4-2 ret.#469Federico Arnaboldi

7-5 6-1#762Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

7-6(7) 3-0 ret.#390Pavel Lagutin

7-6(1) 6-1#874Ryo Tabata

6-4 6-2#168Lukas Neumayer

7-6(2) 6-4#358Andrej Martin

7-5 7-6(5)#522Rudolf Molleker

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

APAndrea PellegrinoPellegrino

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Svyatoslav GulinGulinSG

Svyatoslav Gulin carries the stronger recent form — Andrea Pellegrino's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.0%+3.4pp60.4%

1st Serve Won68.3%—68.2%

2nd Serve Won49.3%+1.3pp50.6%

Aces / Match3.7+0.82.9

Double Faults / Match3.01.5 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won35.9%+8.5pp44.4%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.2%+4.9pp48.1%

Break Pts Saved66.7%+15.3pp51.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.8%+3.8pp52.6%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

57.0%1st Serve In+3.4pp60.4%

68.3%1st Serve Won—68.2%

49.3%2nd Serve Won+1.3pp50.6%

3.7Aces / Match+0.82.9

3.0Double Faults / Match1.5 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

35.9%Return Pts Won+8.5pp44.4%

Pressure · 1–1

43.2%Break Pts Converted+4.9pp48.1%

66.7%Break Pts Saved+15.3pp51.4%

Points · 0–1

48.8%Total Pts Won+3.8pp52.6%

Andrea Pellegrino

Svyatoslav Gulin

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Svyatoslav Gulin

Svyatoslav Gulin

Svyatoslav Gulin 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Andrea Pellegrino

Svyatoslav Gulin

Stat Battle