PortugalLisbon - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Takeru Yuzuki #1288Japan0Svyatoslav Gulin #572Russia2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6Sun 18 Oct 2026, 13:30 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions8–189%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSvyatoslav Gulin · 716 places

Takeru Yuzuki

Japan

Yuzuki, 27, is the left-hander in this matchup and is listed at 196cm. His highest listed singles ranking is No. 1210; the 2026 activity record is predominantly doubles, with three listed singles matches before Shanghai.

Current ranking: #1288
Peak ranking: #1210
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Svyatoslav Gulin

Russia

Russian player born 4 December 2002. Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 358 in June 2025; no reliable preferred-surface designation was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #572
Peak ranking: #358 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:21 · Europe/Bucharest

A seeded clay regular against a late alternate with one tracked clay match behind him: Gulin should win, and probably in straight sets.

The prices — 1.07 to win the match, 1.30 for a 2-0 win — ask more than that record justifies, so no reviewed selection is worth backing.

Context

Gulin played four matches in five days, three of them straight-set wins, and then moved from Catania to Lisbon with a two-day gap before this qualifying round. That volume is real recent competitive work against clay-court opposition, and the only defeat in the block came against a player ranked No. 220, so it tests him without suggesting a collapse. Yuzuki's most recent singles match was on 6 September, which leaves a five-week gap in match play on the other side of the net. The counterweight is that a five-day tournament week plus travel can also mean limited preparation on a new court.
- Gulin beat Kovac 6-1 6-1 and Rodenas 6-2 7-5 in Catania qualifying on 11 and 12 October 2026.
- He beat Agamenone 7-5 6-2 in the Catania main draw .
- Cadenasso, ranked No. 220, beat him 7-5 6-4 in the round of 16 .
- He is scheduled to open Lisbon qualifying three days later, on 18 October 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:21 · Europe/Bucharest
Gulin's sets on clay have tended to separate quickly, which shapes how this qualifying opener may be scored.
Across 13 completed clay matches between 25 August and 15 October 2026, Gulin won 2-0 eight times and lost 0-2 three times, averaging 2.15 sets and 20.9 games per match. Four of those 13 matches included a tiebreak, only one of them in a second set. That points to short matches, though the three straight-set defeats show the same pattern can run against him.
- Eight of Gulin's 13 completed clay matches in the window ended 2-0 in his favour; three ended 0-2.
- His average clay match length is 2.15 sets and 20.9 total games.
- Four of the 13 matches contained a tiebreak, only one of them in a second set.
The sample is far too small to define Yuzuki on clay, but it is all the surface evidence the record holds.
One match, played on 25 February 2024, makes up Yuzuki's entire clay sample here: a 6-7, 3-6 loss across 22 games. It says little about how he will play in Lisbon more than two and a half years later, and it is a single data point rather than a pattern. His six most recent tracked matches all came on hard courts, where he went 6-8 across 14 matches in the current window.
- Yuzuki has one completed clay match tracked, dated 25 February 2024, lost 0-2.
- That match went 6-7, 3-6 for 22 total games and included a first-set tiebreak.
- His overall record in the current window is 6 wins and 8 losses across 14 tracked matches.
The two arrive at the same round through different doors: Gulin holds a seed line, which at Challenger level follows ranking, while Yuzuki's place came from an alternate slot. That reflects Gulin's No. 572 against a player ranked well outside the top 1,000, and it explains why the draw placed a seeded entrant against a late replacement. It is a statement about entry status rather than about how either player is playing, so it frames the gap in the field without measuring it.
- The Lisbon Challenger 100 qualifying draw was set .
- Gulin is seeded 11th in that draw.
- Yuzuki is listed as an alternate in the qualifying field.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:21 · Europe/BucharestScoreGoscorego-app.com · 18 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Svyatoslav Gulin

1.07fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 93.5%

−13.5ppshort

Gulin has a settled run of clay wins and set leads behind him, while Yuzuki's clay evidence is a single old loss.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Svyatoslav Gulin

1.12fair 1.32

BetBugs 76% · Market 89.3%

−13.3ppshort

Gulin consistently takes the opening set on clay, and Yuzuki has little to counter with.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Svyatoslav Gulin

1.15fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 87%

−20.0ppshort

He is still clearly the stronger player in second sets, just less dominant than in first sets.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Lean

Svyatoslav Gulin 2-0

1.30fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 76.9%

−13.9ppshort

Straight-set wins are his most common outcome, matching his habit of taking the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Gulin has a settled run of clay wins and set leads behind him, while Yuzuki's clay evidence is a single old loss.
- Gulin is 9-4 across 13 clay matches in the current window, all at this best-of-3 format.
- He is 10-3 in first sets and 8-5 in second sets on the surface.
- Yuzuki has one clay match tracked (a 0-2 loss in February 2024) and is 6-8 overall on other surfaces.
- Gulin is seeded 11th in qualifying; Yuzuki entered as an alternate.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance80%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets on this surface regularly reach ten games or more.
- Gulin's set1 total games average is 10.8 on clay.
- Three of his 13 clay matches had a first-set tiebreak.
- His most recent first set was 5-7, 12 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
His clay matches tend to be short, with one-sided sets common.
- Gulin's average total games on clay is 20.9.
- His second sets average 8.9 games.
- Five of his six recent clay wins came with 7 games or fewer conceded.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in his clay matches tend to be shorter than the first.
- Gulin's set2 total games average is 8.9 on clay.
- Only one of his 13 clay matches had a second-set tiebreak.
- His set2 games lost average is 4.0.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Gulin consistently takes the opening set on clay, and Yuzuki has little to counter with.
- Gulin has won 10 of 13 first sets on clay.
- His set1 games average is 6.15 won to 4.62 lost.
- Yuzuki lost his only tracked clay first set 6-7.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Gulin's completed clay matches finish in two sets.
- Eight of Gulin's 13 clay matches ended 2-0, plus three 0-2 losses.
- His average match length on clay is 2.15 sets.
- Yuzuki's one clay match was a 0-2 defeat.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
He is still clearly the stronger player in second sets, just less dominant than in first sets.
- Gulin is 8-5 in second sets on clay.
- He has won both sets in eight of 13 clay matches.
- His set2 games average is 4.92 won to 4.0 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Straight-set wins are his most common outcome, matching his habit of taking the opening set.
- Eight of Gulin's 13 clay scorelines were 2-0 wins.
- He has lost only three first sets in 13 clay matches.
- His set1 games won average is 6.15 against 4.62 lost.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonSvyatoslav Gulin 2-0Estimated chance63%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Gulin's clay matches have been decided without a tiebreak.
- Four of Gulin's 13 clay matches contained a tiebreak.
- Only one of those came in a second set.
- Yuzuki's single clay match did contain a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%

Takeru Yuzuki

6W 9L

1-6 7-6(4) 6-3#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

4-6 6-3 6-4#275Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-2 6-7(6) 7-6(6)#459Karl Poling

7-6(5) 6-4#648Mario Gonzalez Fernandez

7-6(5) 6-1#827Ji Sung Nam

6-4 6-3#896Daisuke Sumizawa

6-4 6-2#386Kaichi Uchida

6-3 3-6 6-2#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-7(4) 6-1 7-6(3)#811Oscar Weightman

7-5 7-5—Zhenxiong Dong

7-6(4) 6-1#294Sergey Fomin

6-1 6-7(5) 7-6(2)#841Zura Tkemaladze

6-1 6-4#899Leonid Sheyngezikht

5-2 ret.#539Aziz Ouakaa

7-6(5) 6-3#1803Ivan Denisov

Svyatoslav Gulin

9W 6L

7-5 6-4#220Gianluca Cadenasso

7-5 6-2#378Franco Agamenone

6-2 7-5#633Pedro Rodenas

6-1 6-1—Tilen Kovac

6-4 4-2 ret.#478Federico Arnaboldi

7-5 6-1#762Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

7-6(7) 3-0 ret.#410Pavel Lagutin

7-6(1) 6-1#874Ryo Tabata

6-4 6-2#180Lukas Neumayer

7-6(2) 6-4#387Andrej Martin

7-5 7-6(5)#535Rudolf Molleker

7-6(9) 6-3#355Norbert Gombos

6-3 1-6 6-3#535Rudolf Molleker

4-6 6-4 6-1#257Martin Krumich

6-3 6-2—Henri Haupt

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TYTakeru YuzukiYuzuki

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Svyatoslav GulinGulinSG

Takeru Yuzuki carries the stronger recent form — Svyatoslav Gulin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In62.0%+3.5pp58.5%

1st Serve Won73.5%+4.6pp68.9%

2nd Serve Won51.2%+2.7pp53.9%

Aces / Match10.1+5.74.4

Double Faults / Match4.53.0 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won32.1%+9.4pp41.5%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted47.5%+5.2pp42.3%

Break Pts Saved70.5%+16.1pp54.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.2%+2.8pp52.0%

Serve · 3–2

62.0%1st Serve In+3.5pp58.5%

73.5%1st Serve Won+4.6pp68.9%

51.2%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp53.9%

10.1Aces / Match+5.74.4

4.5Double Faults / Match3.0 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

32.1%Return Pts Won+9.4pp41.5%

Pressure · 2–0

47.5%Break Pts Converted+5.2pp42.3%

70.5%Break Pts Saved+16.1pp54.4%

Points · 0–1

49.2%Total Pts Won+2.8pp52.0%