PortugalLisbon - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Patrick Schoen #368Switzerland2Svyatoslav Gulin #572Russia0

Sets 6-0 · 6-3Mon 19 Oct 2026, 10:30 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions6–367%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePatrick Schoen · 204 places

Patrick Schoen

Switzerland

Schoen, 21, is a 185-cm right-hander coached by Pedro Felner. His reported ATP singles high is No. 485; a preferred surface was not confirmed.

Current ranking: #368
Peak ranking: #485
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Svyatoslav Gulin

Russia

Russian player born 4 December 2002. Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 358 in June 2025; no reliable preferred-surface designation was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #572
Peak ranking: #358 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 22:45 · Europe/Bucharest

Two qualifiers, 204 ranking places apart, meet with Gulin's clay first sets the live counterweight to Schoen's higher standing.

Schoen is the likelier winner, but only narrowly, in a match where straight sets have dominated both men's clay records. The one reviewed quote, Schoen at 1.65, asks him to win around 60% of the time; that is more than this matchup supports, so no price on offer is worthwhile.

Context

That Catania week is the only recent evidence of Gulin sustaining form across five matches on clay, six consecutive sets won before the quarter-final, following an interrupted September. It sets the benchmark he brings into this fixture, because it is the last completed tournament block of his season and it came at Challenger level rather than in ITF fields. The counterweight is the level of opposition: Kovac is unranked in the sample, Rodenas was outside the top 600 and Agamenone outside the top 350, and the first top-250 opponent he met, Cadenasso, beat him in straight sets.
- Gulin beat Kovac 6-1 6-1 and Rodenas 6-2 7-5 in Catania qualifying on 11-
- He beat Agamenone 7-5 6-2 in the main draw
- Cadenasso, the third seed, won their quarter-final 7-5 6-4
- Catania was Gulin's eighth qualifying draw of 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 22:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Two retirements inside eight days at qualifying level, the second following treatment around the arm and shoulder, are the only documented physical interruption in Gulin's recent record and the clearest open question about his availability. It bears on this match because he is playing a second consecutive week of competition after four matches in Catania, exactly the load pattern that would expose a recurrence. The qualification is that he has completed all five matches since without retiring, so the evidence reads as a resolved interruption rather than a current restriction.
- Gulin retired at 7-6(7) 3-0 down against Lagutin on 21 September
- He took a medical timeout for arm and shoulder treatment at 2-3 in the second set against Arnaboldi
- He retired from that Bari qualifying match
- He has since completed five matches, four at Catania and one in Lisbon qualifying, without retiring
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 22:43 · Europe/BucharestGulin match results including the Plovdiv and Bari retirementswww.flashscore.com · 28 Sep 2026
Beating a top-250 opponent is the first result showing Schoen can win a main-draw match at Challenger level rather than only against ITF fields, and it came at the start of this Portuguese swing. It matters here because his route into the draw is qualifying, so that scalp is the most direct evidence of where his ceiling currently sits. The limitation is immediate: he lost 6-1 6-0 to Alcala Gurri in the next round and then failed to qualify in Maia the following week, so the step up has not yet been repeated.
- Schoen beat Nedic, then ranked No. 244, 6-1 7-6(1)
- It was his first Challenger main-draw victory at 21
- He lost 6-1 6-0 to Max Alcala Gurri in the next round
- He was ranked No. 368 at the time
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 22:43 · Europe/Bucharest
Gulin's first set on clay has been his most dependable passage of play this autumn, and it has not always carried through to the result.
Schoen has won five of seven clay first sets in a shorter sample, so both men arrive with a good opening-set habit rather than one clear starter. Gulin's three first-set tiebreaks in 13 matches suggest his edge there is often narrow, which makes the opening set a genuine contest rather than a formality.
- Gulin won 10 of 13 clay first sets between 26 August and 18 October 2026
- He averaged 6.15 games won and 4.69 games lost in those first sets
- Three of the 13 first sets went to a tiebreak

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Patrick Schoen

1.65fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 60.6%

−8.6ppshort

Schoen's higher ranking and strong clay serve numbers give him a narrow overall advantage.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Schoen's higher ranking and strong clay serve numbers give him a narrow overall advantage.
- Schoen is ranked 368, 204 places above Gulin.
- Schoen has won 5 of 7 completed clay matches and 56.0% of clay games.
- Schoen's clay first-serve points won is 73.3%.
- Gulin is 9-4 on clay but has no serve or return metrics available.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPatrick SchoenEstimated chance52%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average near nine games, so under 9.5 is slightly more likely.
- Schoen's clay second sets average 9.0 total games.
- Gulin's clay second sets average 9.08 total games.
- Gulin has won 8 of 13 clay second sets.
- Schoen has won 4 of 7 clay second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's short clay wins and the high share of straight-set matches keep the total just under 20.5.
- Schoen's clay matches average 19.14 total games.
- Gulin's 13 clay matches include 11 straight-set finishes.
- Schoen has short clay wins such as 6-1 6-1 and 6-1 6-2.
- Gulin's clay matches average 21.15 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gulin's longer opening sets make over 9.5 games slightly more likely.
- Gulin's clay first sets average 10.85 total games.
- Gulin has three first-set tiebreaks in 13 clay matches.
- Schoen's clay first sets average 8.29 total games.
- Schoen has one first-set tiebreak in seven clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' clay records, so under 2.5 sets is clearly more likely.
- Schoen's clay sets average 2.14 per match.
- Gulin's clay sets average 2.15 per match.
- Gulin has eight 2-0 wins and Schoen four 2-0 wins.
- Only three of their 20 combined clay matches went to three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gulin's first-set record and game margins on clay are stronger than Schoen's.
- Gulin has won 10 of 13 clay first sets.
- Gulin averages 6.15 games won and 4.69 lost in clay first sets.
- Gulin has three first-set tiebreaks in 13 clay matches.
- Schoen has won 5 of 7 clay first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Schoen's second-set record is close to Gulin's, and his overall clay points share is slightly better.
- Schoen has won 4 of 7 clay second sets.
- Schoen averages 4.71 games won and 4.29 lost in clay second sets.
- Gulin has won 8 of 13 clay second sets.
- Schoen's clay total points won is 52.6%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPatrick SchoenEstimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their clay matches finished without a tiebreak, making no the clear side.
- Fourteen of their 20 combined clay matches had no tiebreak.
- Gulin has four tiebreak matches in 13.
- Schoen has two tiebreak matches in seven.
- Their combined rate is six tiebreak matches in 20.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance68%

Previous match context available

Patrick Schoen

13W 2L

7-6(6) 4-6 7-6(6)#854Francisco Rocha

6-3 6-4#754Michael Vrbensky

6-2 6-1—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-1 7-6(1)#244Andrej Nedic

6-1 6-0#138Max Alcala Gurri

6-1 6-2#471Filip Misolic

6-1 6-3#681Alberto Barroso Campos

6-2 6-2#470Fausto Tabacco

7-5 7-5#649Tiago Cacao

6-4 2-6 6-2#396Robin Bertrand

6-2 6-1—Salvador Monteiro

6-1 6-2—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-4 7-6(5)#594Goncalo Marques

5-7 6-4 6-4#728Jack Anthrop

6-2 6-4#1926Miguel Semedo

Svyatoslav Gulin

9W 6L

6-4 6-4—Takeru Yuzuki

7-5 6-4#220Gianluca Cadenasso

7-5 6-2#378Franco Agamenone

6-2 7-5#633Pedro Rodenas

6-1 6-1—Tilen Kovac

6-4 4-2 ret.#478Federico Arnaboldi

7-5 6-1#762Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

7-6(7) 3-0 ret.#410Pavel Lagutin

7-6(1) 6-1#874Ryo Tabata

6-4 6-2#180Lukas Neumayer

7-6(2) 6-4#387Andrej Martin

7-5 7-6(5)#535Rudolf Molleker

7-6(9) 6-3#355Norbert Gombos

6-3 1-6 6-3#535Rudolf Molleker

4-6 6-4 6-1#257Martin Krumich

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PSPatrick SchoenSchoen

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Svyatoslav GulinGulinSG

Patrick Schoen carries the stronger recent form — Svyatoslav Gulin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

1st Serve In57.3%+1.5pp58.8%

1st Serve Won72.2%+3.4pp68.8%

2nd Serve Won53.0%—53.4%

Aces / Match3.0+1.34.3

Double Faults / Match1.7—1.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.8%+4.7pp41.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.1%+1.2pp44.3%

Break Pts Saved62.8%+7.8pp55.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.4%+2.7pp51.7%

Serve · 1–2 · 2 even

57.3%1st Serve In+1.5pp58.8%

72.2%1st Serve Won+3.4pp68.8%

53.0%2nd Serve Won—53.4%

3.0Aces / Match+1.34.3

1.7Double Faults / Match—1.6

Return · 1–0

45.8%Return Pts Won+4.7pp41.1%

Pressure · 1–1

43.1%Break Pts Converted+1.2pp44.3%

62.8%Break Pts Saved+7.8pp55.0%

Points · 1–0

54.4%Total Pts Won+2.7pp51.7%