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Predictions graded

Patrick Schoen #343Switzerland0Svyatoslav Gulin #545Russia2

Sets 1-6 · 1-6Tue 20 Oct 2026, 10:30 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–456%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePatrick Schoen · 202 places

Patrick Schoen

Switzerland

Schoen, 21, is a 185-cm right-hander coached by Pedro Felner. His reported ATP singles high is No. 485; a preferred surface was not confirmed.

Current ranking: #343
Peak ranking: #485
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Svyatoslav Gulin

Russia

Russian player born 4 December 2002. Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 358 in June 2025; no reliable preferred-surface designation was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #545
Peak ranking: #358 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 Oct 2026, 03:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Twenty-four hours after losing 6-0 6-3 to Schoen in the qualifying final, Gulin is back on the same clay against him, this time in the main draw.

Schoen, ranked 343 to Gulin's 545 and 6-2 on clay, should win again. At 1.6 the price holds up; Gulin at 2.2 needs far more than his record supports.

Context

This first-round fixture exists only because a lucky-loser slot opened after Gulin had already lost, and it pairs the two men who finished the qualifying final on the same court the previous morning. Schoen brings a 6-0 6-3 reference from that match; Gulin gets a second look at the same opponent, on the same clay, but with a main-draw place attached to the result rather than a qualifying one. Neither player has had a free day since, so both arrive with two matches in two days and the same information about each other, which leaves little room for a changed plan or fresh tactical input between the two meetings.
- Schoen beat Gulin 6-0 6-3 in the Lisbon qualifying final on the clay of Court Lisboa .
- Gulin took a lucky-loser place in the main draw and was drawn against Schoen in round one.
- The first-round match is scheduled for 20 October at 10:30 local time, about 24 hours after the qualifying final.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Oct 2026, 03:02 · Europe/BucharestScoreGo match pagescorego-app.com · 19 Oct 2026
Schoen has tended to start clay matches on the front foot, taking six of eight opening sets in this sample.
His clay first sets have averaged 8.0 total games, 5.1 to 2.9, so he has tended to lead early rather than scrap through tight sets. Gulin's first sets across 13 clay matches average 10.5 games with three tiebreaks, a different rhythm and the main reason the opening set may not follow the qualifying final's shape. Both samples are small.
- Schoen's eight tracked clay matches run from 4 to 19 October 2026.
- He won six of eight first sets, averaging 5.1 games to 2.9, with one tiebreak in those opening sets.
Winning 54.8% of total points across 15 matches is a wide margin for a player ranked 343. His separate eight-match clay sample shows a 55.9% break-point save rate, 19 of 34, against 64.6%, 51 of 79, across the 15. The clay figures are the more relevant guide here, but eight matches is a thin base.
- Schoen's 15 tracked matches produced 13 wins and two losses.
- He won 54.8% of total points (1061 of 1936) and saved 51 of 79 break points (64.6%).
- He won 72.8% of first-serve points (386 of 530) while landing 58.1% of first serves.
The Braga result is the only completed Challenger main-draw victory on Schoen's record, and it came against a top-250 opponent, a higher level than the qualifying field he has beaten in Lisbon. It therefore marks the standard he has actually cleared at this tier rather than a projection from qualifying wins. The 6-1 6-0 defeat to Alcala Gurri in the following round is the counterweight: his first main-draw step was followed immediately by a heavy loss to a higher-ranked opponent, so his ability to repeat that level across a full main-draw week remains untested.
- Schoen beat Nedic 6-1 7-6(1) at the Braga Challenger .
- That was his first main-draw win at Challenger level.
- He lost 6-1 6-0 to Max Alcala Gurri in the next round.
- Lisbon is his third Portuguese clay event in three weeks, and he had to qualify at each of them.
ConfirmedSources checked 20 Oct 2026, 03:02 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Schoen has the higher ranking, the stronger clay numbers and a one-sided win over the same opponent yesterday.
- Ranked 343 vs 545; Schoen is 6-2 on clay in this sample.
- Schoen won 70.6% of clay sets and 58.4% of clay games.
- Schoen beat Gulin 6-0 6-3 in the Lisbon qualifying final a day earlier.
- Gulin is 9-4 on clay but has no serve or return metrics available.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostPatrick SchoenEstimated chance73%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's short first sets and the 6-0 head-to-head set pull the total toward the under.
- Schoen's clay first sets average 8.0 total games.
- Gulin's clay first sets average 10.5 total games.
- Combined first-set average is about 9.6 games.
- Head-to-head first set had six games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's shorter clay matches and the 15-game head-to-head pull the total near the line.
- Schoen's clay matches average 18.6 total games.
- Gulin's clay matches average 20.2 total games.
- The head-to-head had 15 total games.
- Set evidence covers 8 Schoen and 13 Gulin clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 19.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average exactly nine games on clay, leaving the line close.
- Schoen's clay second sets average nine total games.
- Gulin's clay second sets average nine total games.
- Schoen has won five of eight second sets on clay.
- Gulin has won eight of 13 second sets on clay.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have mostly finished clay matches in two sets, and the head-to-head was a straight-set win.
- Schoen has one three-set match in eight on clay.
- Gulin has one three-set match in 13 on clay.
- The head-to-head finished in two sets.
- Combined clay three-set rate is 2 of 21 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen starts strongly on clay and began the head-to-head with a 6-0 set.
- Schoen has won six of eight first sets on clay.
- Gulin has won nine of 13 first sets on clay.
- Schoen took the head-to-head first set 6-0.
- Schoen's first sets average 8.0 total games; Gulin's 10.5.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPatrick SchoenEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen is the likelier match winner and took the second set in the head-to-head.
- Schoen has won five of eight second sets on clay.
- Gulin has won eight of 13 second sets on clay.
- Schoen won the head-to-head second set 6-3.
- Schoen is the higher-ranked player at 343 vs 545.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostPatrick SchoenEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Schoen's clay wins are mostly in straight sets and his only meeting with Gulin was one-sided.
- Schoen has five 2-0 scorelines in eight clay matches.
- Gulin has eight 2-0 scorelines in 13 clay matches.
- Head-to-head was 6-0 6-3 to Schoen.
- Combined, 13 of 15 clay wins in the samples were in straight sets.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostPatrick Schoen 2-0Estimated chance61%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of the combined clay matches finished without a tiebreak, including the head-to-head.
- Six of 21 combined clay matches had a tiebreak.
- Schoen had two tiebreaks in eight clay matches.
- Gulin had four tiebreaks in 13 clay matches.
- The head-to-head had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Patrick Schoen

13W 2L

6-0 6-3#545Svyatoslav Gulin 7-6(6) 4-6 7-6(6)#893Francisco Rocha

6-3 6-4#668Michael Vrbensky

6-2 6-1—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-1 7-6(1)#237Andrej Nedic

6-1 6-0#132Max Alcala Gurri

6-1 6-2#495Filip Misolic

6-1 6-3#710Alberto Barroso Campos

6-2 6-2#459Fausto Tabacco

7-5 7-5#626Tiago Cacao

6-4 2-6 6-2#420Robin Bertrand

6-2 6-1—Salvador Monteiro

6-1 6-2—Guilherme Valdoleiros

6-4 7-6(5)#581Goncalo Marques

5-7 6-4 6-4#731Jack Anthrop

Svyatoslav Gulin

9W 6L

6-0 6-3#343Patrick Schoen 6-4 6-4—Takeru Yuzuki

7-5 6-4#183Gianluca Cadenasso

7-5 6-2#359Franco Agamenone

6-2 7-5#623Pedro Rodenas

6-1 6-1—Tilen Kovac

6-4 4-2 ret.#469Federico Arnaboldi

7-5 6-1#762Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

7-6(7) 3-0 ret.#390Pavel Lagutin

7-6(1) 6-1#874Ryo Tabata

6-4 6-2#168Lukas Neumayer

7-6(2) 6-4#358Andrej Martin

7-5 7-6(5)#522Rudolf Molleker

7-6(9) 6-3#362Norbert Gombos

6-3 1-6 6-3#522Rudolf Molleker

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PSPatrick SchoenSchoen

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Svyatoslav GulinGulinSG

Patrick Schoen carries the stronger recent form — Svyatoslav Gulin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.1%+1.2pp59.3%

1st Serve Won72.8%+4.6pp68.2%

2nd Serve Won53.0%+1.1pp51.9%

Aces / Match2.7+1.44.1

Double Faults / Match1.6—1.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.1%+5.2pp40.9%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted46.5%+1.3pp45.2%

Break Pts Saved64.6%+12.7pp51.9%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.8%+3.6pp51.2%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

58.1%1st Serve In+1.2pp59.3%

72.8%1st Serve Won+4.6pp68.2%

53.0%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp51.9%

2.7Aces / Match+1.44.1

1.6Double Faults / Match—1.7

Return · 1–0

46.1%Return Pts Won+5.2pp40.9%

Pressure · 2–0

46.5%Break Pts Converted+1.3pp45.2%

64.6%Break Pts Saved+12.7pp51.9%

Points · 1–0

54.8%Total Pts Won+3.6pp51.2%