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Predictions graded

Andrej Martin #358Slovakia1Svyatoslav Gulin #545Russia2

Sets 6-1 · 0-6 · 2-6Thu 22 Oct 2026, 14:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions5–456%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAndrej Martin · 187 places

Andrej Martin

Slovakia

Martin reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 93 on 10 February 2020. He is a 36-year-old Slovak right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #358
Peak ranking: #93 · 2020
Current age: 36
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Svyatoslav Gulin

Russia

Russian player born 4 December 2002. Reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 358 in June 2025; no reliable preferred-surface designation was found in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #545
Peak ranking: #358 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Oct 2026, 08:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Two lucky losers meet six weeks after Gulin beat Martin 7-6(2) 6-4 on clay, with Gulin's straight-set run up against Martin's habit of grinding out deciders.

Gulin is the likelier winner, but 1.5 asks for a two-in-three chance that his form and that head-to-head win do not quite support. No reviewed price is worth taking.

Context

Each man played qualifying and then a first-round match on consecutive days at the same venue, so both arrive in the round of 16 with two completed matches on the Lisbon clay and neither holds a rest advantage. The reprieve also explains the shape of this draw: two players ranked 358 and 545 are meeting for a quarter-final place because both were added to the main draw after losing it. The counterweight is the quality of those first-round wins, which came against a home wildcard ranked 377 and against a 21-year-old qualifier ranked 343, so neither result tests the level required at this stage. Their shared entry status is now settled and separates nothing between them.
- Both players were listed as lucky losers when the Lisbon draw was completed .
- Martin was beaten 6-3 6-2 by Alexander Ritschard in his final qualifying round .
- Gulin was beaten 6-0 6-3 by Patrick Schoen in his final qualifying round .
- Both won their first-round matches, Martin 6-3 6-3 against Tiago Torres and Gulin 6-1 6-1 against Schoen.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:07 · Europe/Bucharest
The two matches were played a day apart on the same courts, and the move from three games won to two games lost is the most concrete measure available of how much Gulin's level shifted between the qualifying defeat and the main draw. It matters here because it shows his current clay form is better than a 6-0 6-3 loss or a No. 545 ranking implies, and the second result came against a player ranked 343. The limitation is that Schoen, 21, had spent himself getting through qualifying in his third such event of the year, so repeating that level against a 37-year-old former top-100 player is a different proposition.
- Gulin won three games in a 6-0 6-3 qualifying defeat to Patrick Schoen .
- Gulin beat Patrick Schoen 6-1 6-1 in the Lisbon first round after entering as a lucky loser.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:07 · Europe/Bucharest
Gulin, ranked 545, has won nine of 13 completed clay matches since 31 August 2026 without once going to a third set.
Gulin's recent clay matches average 2.0 sets and 19.4 total games, with his first sets averaging 10.4 games and his second sets 9.0. Martin, in the same window, has been through three deciders in 14 matches. A two-set finish is the natural shape here, though 13 matches is a small sample and one tight opening set could change it.
- Gulin's 13 completed clay matches span 31 August to 20 October 2026, with nine 2-0 wins and four 0-2 defeats.
- His matches in that sample average 2.0 sets and 19.4 total games.
- His first sets average 10.4 games with three tiebreaks; his second sets average 9.0 with one.
The opening set was settled in a tiebreak, so the straight-set margin rested on a handful of points rather than a wide gap in level, and Martin was the higher-ranked player at the time. It is the only direct evidence of how these two match up, and it came on the same surface in the same stretch of the season, with both men's rankings essentially unchanged since. The matchup question it raises is whether Gulin's ability to hold serve and close a tight set against Martin repeats. The limitation is that it is one best-of-three match almost seven weeks old, and Martin has played nine clay matches since.
- The pair played on 7 September 2026 on clay, with Gulin winning 7-6(2) 6-4.
- Gulin was ranked 545 and Martin 358 when they met.
ConfirmedSources checked 21 Oct 2026, 08:07 · Europe/BucharestFlashscore head-to-head recordwww.flashscore.com.ng · 21 Oct 2026Flashscore match pagewww.flashscore.com.au · 21 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Svyatoslav Gulin

1.50fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 66.7%

−9.7ppshort

Gulin's stronger recent clay results and head-to-head win give him the better chance, despite Martin's higher ranking.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Gulin's stronger recent clay results and head-to-head win give him the better chance, despite Martin's higher ranking.
- Gulin is 9-4 in 13 completed clay matches, with all nine wins in straight sets.
- Gulin beat Martin 7-6(2) 6-4 on clay in their only meeting, six weeks ago.
- Martin is 9-5 on clay but has three three-set wins in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance57%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average below 9.5, and second-set tiebreaks have been rare.
- Martin's second sets average 8.6 total games; Gulin's average 9.0.
- Only one second-set tiebreak appears across their 27 combined matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gulin's first sets regularly reach double-figure games, lifting the chance of more than 9.5.
- Gulin's first sets average 10.4 total games; Martin's average 9.3.
- Gulin has three first-set tiebreaks in 13 clay matches.
- Martin has two first-set tiebreaks in 14.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent clay matches sit near this total, and Gulin's first sets often reach double figures.
- Martin's 14 clay matches average 19.5 total games; Gulin's 13 average 19.4.
- Gulin's first sets average 10.4 games; Martin's average 9.3.
- Gulin has four tiebreaks in 13 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 19.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Gulin has not played a three-set match in 13 clay matches, and most of Martin's matches also finish in two sets.
- Gulin has not played a three-set match in 13 completed clay matches.
- Martin has played three three-set matches in 14.
- Their only meeting finished in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gulin's stronger first-set record and head-to-head edge make him the likelier early leader.
- Gulin has won 9 of 13 first sets on clay; Martin has won 7 of 14.
- Gulin won the first set 7-6 in their only meeting.
- Gulin's first sets average 5.7 games won to 4.7 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gulin's second-set record is stronger and he has been more efficient in closing sets.
- Gulin has won 9 of 13 second sets on clay; Martin has won 8 of 14.
- Gulin's second sets average 5.2 games won to 3.8 lost.
- Gulin beat Martin in straight sets in September.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonSvyatoslav GulinEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have appeared in a minority of both players' recent clay matches.
- Gulin has had four tiebreaks in 13 clay matches; Martin has had two in 14.
- Their September meeting included a first-set tiebreak.
- Gulin has three first-set tiebreaks; Martin has two.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Andrej Martin

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#377Tiago Torres 6-3 6-2#483Alexander Ritschard

7-6(2) 6-4#626Tiago Cacao

6-4 6-4#154Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

5-7 6-3 6-2#341Duje Ajdukovic

6-2 6-1#578Joao Domingues

6-0 6-3#232Alejandro Moro Canas

6-3 2-6 4-2 ret.#423Louis Wessels

6-4 6-4#312Samuele Pieri

7-6(2) 6-4#545Svyatoslav Gulin

6-4 6-2—Jonas Gundacker

6-0 6-1#733Manuel Plunger

6-3 2-6 6-3#667Giovanni Oradini

6-3 6-3#791Lorenzo Rottoli

0-6 6-0 6-0—Leyton Rivera

Svyatoslav Gulin

9W 6L

6-1 6-1#343Patrick Schoen 6-0 6-3#343Patrick Schoen 6-4 6-4—Takeru Yuzuki

7-5 6-4#183Gianluca Cadenasso

7-5 6-2#359Franco Agamenone

6-2 7-5#623Pedro Rodenas

6-1 6-1—Tilen Kovac

6-4 4-2 ret.#469Federico Arnaboldi

7-5 6-1#762Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes

7-6(7) 3-0 ret.#390Pavel Lagutin

7-6(1) 6-1#874Ryo Tabata

6-4 6-2#168Lukas Neumayer

7-6(2) 6-4#358Andrej Martin

7-5 7-6(5)#522Rudolf Molleker

7-6(9) 6-3#362Norbert Gombos

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AMAndrej MartinMartin

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Svyatoslav GulinGulinSG

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

1st Serve In58.7%—58.8%

1st Serve Won68.4%—68.7%

2nd Serve Won48.9%+2.6pp51.5%

Aces / Match1.9+1.63.5

Double Faults / Match3.21.6 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won43.5%+1.3pp42.2%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted49.5%+1.1pp48.4%

Break Pts Saved58.0%+4.7pp53.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.9%—51.9%

Serve · 0–3 · 2 even

58.7%1st Serve In—58.8%

68.4%1st Serve Won—68.7%

48.9%2nd Serve Won+2.6pp51.5%

1.9Aces / Match+1.63.5

3.2Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

43.5%Return Pts Won+1.3pp42.2%

Pressure · 2–0

49.5%Break Pts Converted+1.1pp48.4%

58.0%Break Pts Saved+4.7pp53.3%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.9%Total Pts Won—51.9%