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Predictions graded

Maria Timofeeva #92Uzbekistan2Mia Pohankova #247Slovakia1

Sets 6-2 · 6-7 · 6-3Sat 26 Sept 2026, 11:31 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions5–645%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaria Timofeeva · 155 places

Maria Timofeeva

Uzbekistan

The ITF lists hard and carpet as her preferred surfaces. She reached a career-high No. 79 in July 2026.

Current ranking: #92
Peak ranking: #79 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Hard, Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 167 cm

Mia Pohankova

Slovakia

Reached a career-best WTA singles ranking of No. 243 in June 2026. Official WTA data shows a strong ranking rise during 2026; no reliable preferred-surface fact was found.

Current ranking: #247
Peak ranking: #243 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Sep 2026, 03:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Top seed Timofeeva, ranked 87, carries a reported 15-match winning run in Portugal into this semifinal, while 17-year-old Pohankova saved two match points to reach a second straight Portuguese WTA 125 semifinal.

Timofeeva's hard-court record makes her the likely winner of a match that should finish in straight sets. The 1.50 on two sets is the one quoted price that offers anything; the 1.65 on Timofeeva to win the match, and to take the opening set, asks too much.

Context

Timofeeva is the top seed and has not lost a match in Portugal across this event and the previous week, so the venue, surface and weekly rhythm of the Portuguese swing are already settled for her. Her quarterfinal opponent had reached the final at Caldas da Rainha the week before, which gives the 6-1, 6-2 scoreline a little more weight than the ranking gap alone suggests. The counterpoint is that the entire run has come at WTA 125 level against opponents ranked outside the top 100, so it describes continuity and comfort in these conditions rather than a proven step above the field she meets next.
- Timofeeva beat Gabriela Knutson 6-1, 6-2 in the WTA 125 Eupago Porto Open quarterfinal .
- The quarterfinal win was her 15th consecutive match win on Portuguese soil.
- Knutson had been the runner-up at the WTA 125 event in Caldas da Rainha the previous week.
ReportedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 03:03 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 25 Sep 2026
Pohankova, 17 and ranked outside the top 200, has now reached the semifinals at consecutive Portuguese WTA 125 events and needed a two-match-point escape to survive the quarterfinal. That matters for this fixture because she has shown she can absorb a lost first set and still win, the pattern she would need against a top seed who has taken all three of her Porto matches in straight sets. Her quarterfinal ran to three sets while Timofeeva's lasted two, a small but real difference in time on court the day before a semifinal.
- Mia Pohankova defeated Katie Swan 3-6, 7-5, 6-1 in the WTA 125 Eupago Porto Open quarterfinal .
- She trailed by a set and faced two match points in the second set before winning.
- It is her second successive WTA 125 semifinal on the Portuguese swing, following Caldas da Rainha.
ConfirmedSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 03:03 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majorswww.tennismajors.com · 25 Sep 2026
A leg and hip problem that needed treatment inside the round of 16 is the only clear physical signal attached to either player this week, and it came two days before this semifinal. She completed that match and then came through a three-set quarterfinal, so nothing in the record shows a withdrawal, retirement or visibly reduced level of play. No current information describes whether the issue still limits her movement, so the physical question stays open rather than established.
- Pohankova took a medical timeout with treatment to the leg and hip area during her round-of-16 match against Veronika Podrez .
- She was serving at 1-0 in the second set when the treatment was taken, and she completed that match and won her quarterfinal a day later.
To watchSources checked 26 Sep 2026, 03:03 · Europe/Bucharest
Pohankova, 17, has been at her most reliable in the second set of her recent hard-court matches, although the nine-match base is small.
The single second set she lost in that stretch still came in a match she won, so a slow start has not cost her results. Against a top seed who has taken all three Porto matches without dropping a set, this is the clearest sign she can keep the semifinal alive into a decider, and it is one reason a straight-sets finish is not a foregone conclusion.
- Pohankova won eight of nine second sets across nine completed hard-court matches between 23 August and 25 September 2026.
- Her average second set in that sample was 5.7 games won to 3.3 lost, with no tiebreaks played in the second set.
- Her only second-set defeat in the sample came in a match she still won.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Maria Timofeeva

1.65fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 60.6%

−2.6ppshort

The higher-ranked, more tour-tested Timofeeva has the stronger hard-court body of work and beat the player who knocked Pohankova out last week.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Maria Timofeeva

1.65fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 60.6%

−4.6ppshort

Timofeeva has started strongly on hard courts and has begun this week with lopsided first sets.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
The higher-ranked, more tour-tested Timofeeva has the stronger hard-court body of work and beat the player who knocked Pohankova out last week.
- Timofeeva is ranked 87 to Pohankova's 212 and has won 8 of 11 hard-court matches in this window (10-4 overall).
- She beat Gabriela Knutson 6-1 6-2 in the quarterfinal; Pohankova lost to the same player on 19 September.
- Pohankova has won 7 of 9 hard-court matches and 53.9% of points on the surface, saving two match points in her quarterfinal.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMaria TimofeevaEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pohankova's recent matches have all stayed close enough to keep a four-and-a-half game cushion.
- Pohankova's past six matches all finished within seven games either way.
- Her only defeat in that run was a 15-18 games loss to Knutson.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMia Pohankova +4.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the shorter of the two for both players in this window.
- Second-set average totals sit just below 9.0 games for both players.
- Pohankova has won 8 of 9 second sets with an average of 5.7 games won against 3.3 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The average opening set for both players has produced fewer than ten games.
- First sets average 8.7 total games for Timofeeva and 9.3 for Pohankova.
- Both players' recent opening sets have frequently ended 6-3 or shorter.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players near 20 games per match on this surface, this line sits right on their combined average.
- Timofeeva averages 19.9 total games per hard-court match, Pohankova 20.1, either side of the 20.5 line.
- Pohankova's quarterfinal produced 28 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Timofeeva has been winning with room to spare against players around Pohankova's ranking.
- Timofeeva's past six completed matches had game margins of +9, +9, +6, -5, +5 and +8.
- Her two quarterfinal-week wins came 12-3 and 12-3.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMaria Timofeeva -2.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have usually been settled in two sets.
- Timofeeva's hard-court scorelines are 2-0 six times, 0-2 three times and 2-1 twice in 11 matches.
- Pohankova's nine hard-court matches produced seven straight-set results (six wins, one loss).
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Timofeeva has started strongly on hard courts and has begun this week with lopsided first sets.
- Timofeeva has won the opening set in 7 of 11 hard-court matches, Pohankova in 6 of 9.
- Timofeeva's past three opening sets were won 6-1, 6-3 and 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMaria TimofeevaEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Timofeeva's second-set record matches her overall edge, though the margin is narrow.
- Timofeeva has won 7 of 11 second sets on hard courts.
- Pohankova's only hard-court second-set loss in nine matches still came in a match she won.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMaria TimofeevaEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent hard-court matches have been decided without a tiebreak.
- Pohankova has played one tiebreak in nine hard-court matches.
- Timofeeva's 11 hard-court matches include three with a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance72%

Prediction history

Maria Timofeeva: 8/11 recent winner projections matched

8 of 11 comparable winner projections favouring Maria Timofeeva matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Maria Timofeeva11 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·WTA Prague

#84Maria Timofeeva0-2#40Sara Bejlek

BetBugsMaria Timofeeva to win·58%

Missed

23 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#84Maria Timofeeva0-2#40Sara Bejlek

Maria Timofeeva to win

58%probability

Sara Bejlek won

Missed

21 Jul·WTA Prague

#79Maria Timofeeva2-0#143Aliaksandra Sasnovich

BetBugsMaria Timofeeva to win·62%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

WTA Prague

#79Maria Timofeeva2-0#143Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Maria Timofeeva to win

62%probability

Maria Timofeeva won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#134Beatriz Haddad Maia0-2#95Maria Timofeeva

BetBugsMaria Timofeeva to win·72%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#134Beatriz Haddad Maia0-2#95Maria Timofeeva

Maria Timofeeva to win

72%probability

Maria Timofeeva won

Matched

25 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#92Maria Timofeeva2-1#491Heather Watson

BetBugsMaria Timofeeva to win·72%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#92Maria Timofeeva2-1#491Heather Watson

Maria Timofeeva to win

72%probability

Maria Timofeeva won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#92Maria Timofeeva2-0#144Veronika Podrez

BetBugsMaria Timofeeva to win·62%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#92Maria Timofeeva2-0#144Veronika Podrez

Maria Timofeeva to win

62%probability

Maria Timofeeva won

Matched

Previous match context available

Maria Timofeeva

10W 5L

6-1 6-2#163Gabriela Andrea Knutson 6-3 6-0#252Kajsa Rinaldo Persson

6-4 6-2#367Sofia Johnson

6-2 7-6(5)#19Elise Mertens

6-3 7-5#140Tamara Zidansek

6-1 6-3#55Shuai Zhang

3-6 6-3 7-6(1)#76Kamilla Rakhimova

7-6(5) 2-6 7-6(4)#62Lanlana Tararudee

6-0 3-0 ret.#82Xiyu Wang

6-1 6-1#28Sara Bejlek

6-3 6-4#132Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-2 6-1#29Ann Li

2-6 6-3 6-0#19Elise Mertens

6-3 6-2#428Beatriz Haddad Maia

3-6 6-2 6-1#387Heather Watson

Mia Pohankova

8W 7L

3-6 7-5 6-1#208Katie Swan 6-3 6-4#125Veronika Podrez 6-2 6-1#213Francisca Jorge 7-5 5-7 6-3#163Gabriela Andrea Knutson 7-6(3) 6-4#330Kylie Collins

6-4 6-1#255Matilde Jorge

6-1 6-1#95Sinja Kraus

6-1 6-1#77Katie Volynets

6-3 6-3#343Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez

6-1 4-6 6-4#243Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

6-3 7-5#191Mia Ristic

1-6 6-0 6-1#154Ekaterine Gorgodze

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#236Harmony Tan

6-1 6-4#173Rebeka Masarova

6-2 7-6(1)#51Tamara Korpatsch

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MTMaria TimofeevaTimofeeva

Last 15

2–4

9 core stats · 3 even

Mia PohankovaPohankovaMP

Mia Pohankova carries the stronger recent form — Maria Timofeeva's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In61.6%+4.3pp57.3%

1st Serve Won62.6%+4.1pp66.7%

2nd Serve Won44.8%—44.2%

Aces / Match2.0+1.53.5

Double Faults / Match3.50.6 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.4%+2.5pp44.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted46.0%—45.5%

Break Pts Saved55.6%+1.5pp57.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.5%—51.0%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

61.6%1st Serve In+4.3pp57.3%

62.6%1st Serve Won+4.1pp66.7%

44.8%2nd Serve Won—44.2%

2.0Aces / Match+1.53.5

3.5Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

47.4%Return Pts Won+2.5pp44.9%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

46.0%Break Pts Converted—45.5%

55.6%Break Pts Saved+1.5pp57.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.5%Total Pts Won—51.0%

Maria Timofeeva

Mia Pohankova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Maria Timofeeva

Maria Timofeeva

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Maria Timofeeva

Mia Pohankova

Stat Battle