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Predictions graded

Maria Timofeeva #84Uzbekistan0Sara Bejlek #40Czechia2

Sets 1-6 · 1-6Thu 23 Jul 2026, 14:25 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions0–70%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSara Bejlek · 44 places

Maria Timofeeva

Uzbekistan

Reached a career-high No. 79 in July 2026 and won WTA 125 titles at Makarska and Istanbul earlier in 2026. WTA lists Bastian Suwanprateep and Alexander Waske as her current coaches.

Current ranking: #84
Peak ranking: #79 · 2026
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 167 cm

Sara Bejlek

Czechia

Left-handed Czech who won Abu Dhabi in 2026 and reached a career-high No. 34 on 2026-04-06. ITF search-result data for 2026 shows her strongest surface split on hard courts.

Current ranking: #40
Peak ranking: #34 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jul 2026, 15:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Timofeeva's strong recent form (11-4) and return game edge make her the favorite, but Bejlek's positive hard-court record (3-1) and home advantage keep it close.

Value lies in Timofeeva to win and over 20.5 games, while handicaps and set betting are risky due to surface-specific inconsistencies.

Context

Bejlek's first-round match against Blinkova on July 21 lasted over three hours, described as a battle by the tournament site.
- Timofeeva won her first-round match in straight sets, 6-3 6-4, with a controlled workload.
- Bejlek declared herself healthy after the match, but the physical toll of a long match with short recovery is a factor.
Timofeeva's last 15 overall record: 11-4 (73.3%), Bejlek: 6-9 (40%).
- Timofeeva's last 15 return points won: 50.5%, Bejlek: 45.3%.
- Timofeeva's last 15 total points won: 53.5%, Bejlek: 48.6%.
Bejlek's last 15 hard-court record: 3-1 (75%), with 64.7% break points converted (4 matches tracked).
- Timofeeva's last 15 hard-court record: 1-1 (50%), with only 31.3% break points converted (2 matches tracked).
- Bejlek's hard-court total points won: 52.3%, Timofeeva: 49.4%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.25
The read
Timofeeva's superior recent form across surfaces and stronger return game give her an edge, though Bejlek's hard-court sample is limited.
- Timofeeva last15 overall record 11-4 (73.3%) vs Bejlek 6-9 (40%).
- Timofeeva last15 total points won 53.5% vs Bejlek 48.6%.
- Timofeeva last15 return points won 50.5% vs Bejlek 45.3%.
- Bejlek last15 hard record 3-1 (75%) but small sample (4 matches).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMaria TimofeevaEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Competitive recent numbers and moderate serve/return profiles suggest a match exceeding 20 games.
- Timofeeva last15 average games per match 19.0, Bejlek 20.1.
- Bejlek's last three hard matches averaged 21.3 games.
- Both players have break point save rates around 54-55%, indicating potential for extended games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player consistently dominates early, making a 10+ game first set likely.
- Timofeeva last15 average games per set 9.5, Bejlek 9.1.
- Bejlek's last three hard-court first sets: 7-6, 2-6, 6-2 (avg 9.7 games).
- Both players have first serve points won around 56-61%, not dominant enough for quick sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Timofeeva's overall form suggests a narrow cover, but Bejlek's hard-court numbers in a tiny sample add uncertainty.
- Timofeeva last15 average game differential +1.1 per match, Bejlek -0.7.
- Timofeeva last15 hard games won 44.1% (small sample), Bejlek 57.5% (4 matches).
- Overall last15 total points won: Timofeeva 53.5% vs Bejlek 48.6%.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMaria Timofeeva -2.5Estimated chance50%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10
The read
Timofeeva's strong start trend in recent matches suggests she is more likely to take the opening set.
- Timofeeva last15 first set win rate ~73% (11 of 15 matches won, most in straight sets).
- Bejlek last15 first set win rate ~40% (6 of 15 matches won).
- Timofeeva last15 break point conversion 49.7% vs Bejlek 51.3%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaria TimofeevaEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players rely more on rallying than big serves, keeping total aces low.
- Timofeeva last15 aces per match 1.4, Bejlek 0.9.
- Combined average aces per match 2.3.
- Neither player has a high ace rate on hard courts recently.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 3 double faults per match, making over 5.5 likely in a competitive match.
- Timofeeva last15 double faults per match 2.8, Bejlek 3.1.
- Combined average 5.9 double faults per match.
- Bejlek's last15 hard double faults per match 2.3 (small sample).
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Maria Timofeeva

11W 4L

6-3 6-4#133Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-2 6-1#32Ann Li

2-6 6-3 6-0#24Elise Mertens

6-3 6-2#149Beatriz Haddad Maia

3-6 6-2 6-1#475Heather Watson

6-4 6-2#140Veronika Podrez

6-1 6-4#196Whitney Osuigwe

7-5 6-2#85Renata Zarazua

6-2 6-3#109Darja Semenistaja

6-2 7-5#212Sara Sorribes Tormo

7-5 6-1#271Yasmine Kabbaj

6-4 6-3#314Lea Boskovic

6-3 6-2#215Erika Andreeva

2-6 6-0 6-4#231Maria Lourdes Carle

6-1 6-3#240Cadence Brace

Sara Bejlek

6W 9L

7-6(9) 3-6 6-1#105Anna Blinkova

6-2 6-3#30Clara Tauson

6-2 6-2#74Lilli Tagger

6-0 7-5#290Viktoria Morvayova

6-1 7-6(6)#17Sorana Cirstea

3-6 7-6(2) 7-6(3)#89Laura Siegemund

2-6 7-6(3) 6-2#62Karolina Pliskova

6-1 6-2#88Dayana Yastremska

6-2 6-3#8Iga Swiatek

6-3 6-2#313Sloane Stephens

6-1 6-4#27Emma Navarro

6-4 6-0#117Alina Charaeva

6-4 6-4#89Laura Siegemund

7-6(4) 6-2#14Belinda Bencic

6-1 6-1#173Akasha Urhobo

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MTMaria TimofeevaTimofeeva

Last 15

8–1

9 core stats · 0 even

Sara BejlekBejlekSB

Maria Timofeeva carries the stronger recent form — Sara Bejlek's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In66.2%+4.1pp62.1%

1st Serve Won60.9%+4.9pp56.0%

2nd Serve Won47.9%+2.4pp45.5%

Aces / Match1.4+0.50.9

Double Faults / Match2.80.3 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won50.5%+5.2pp45.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted49.7%+1.6pp51.3%

Break Pts Saved55.0%+1.3pp53.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won53.5%+4.9pp48.6%

Serve · 5–0

66.2%1st Serve In+4.1pp62.1%

60.9%1st Serve Won+4.9pp56.0%

47.9%2nd Serve Won+2.4pp45.5%

1.4Aces / Match+0.50.9

2.8Double Faults / Match0.3 fewer3.1

Return · 1–0

50.5%Return Pts Won+5.2pp45.3%

Pressure · 1–1

49.7%Break Pts Converted+1.6pp51.3%

55.0%Break Pts Saved+1.3pp53.7%

Points · 1–0

53.5%Total Pts Won+4.9pp48.6%