PortugalWTA Caldas Da RainhaFinished

Predictions graded

Mia Pohankova #247Slovakia2Kylie Collins #407United States0

Sets 7-6 · 6-4Fri 18 Sept 2026, 11:10 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMia Pohankova · 160 places

Mia Pohankova

Slovakia

Reached a career-best WTA singles ranking of No. 243 in June 2026. Official WTA data shows a strong ranking rise during 2026; no reliable preferred-surface fact was found.

Current ranking: #247
Peak ranking: #243 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Kylie Collins

United States

American right-hander, born December 4, 2002. Official WTA data records a career-best singles ranking of No. 412 on August 3, 2026; no reliable preferred-surface designation was found.

Current ranking: #407
Peak ranking: #412 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 17 Sep 2026, 03:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Kylie Collins is a strong value play at 4.25 to win the match, backed by superior recent form (10-5 vs 7-8), a 51.0% return-points-won edge, and fresher legs after a walkover, despite Pohankova's higher ranking.

Expect a long, volatile match — Over 21.5 games, Over 2.5 sets, and Over 6.5 double faults all align with Collins's high fault rate and both players' tendency to drop sets.

Context

Collins, 24, is ranked No. 364 and has played most of her 2026 season on hard courts, winning 24 of 38 matches on the surface. Pohankova, 20, is ranked No. 233 and has split her 2026 hard-court record between indoor and outdoor events.
Collins has the more reliable recent hard-court results, but Pohankova's small four-match sample includes a straight-sets win over a top-100 opponent. The gap in overall last-15 win rate is clear, yet Pohankova's recent wins have come against higher-ranked opposition than most of Collins's victories.
- Collins is 10-5 in her last 15 hard-court matches, a 66.7% win rate.
- Pohankova is 3-1 on hard courts in her last 15 matches, a 75% win rate but from a four-match sample.
- Collins has a 66.7% overall win rate in the last 15 matches; Pohankova is at 46.7%.
- Pohankova's two most recent wins came against opponents ranked No. 95 and No. 261.
Collins, the WTA No. 364 right-hander, is the away player in this Caldas da Rainha quarter-final and has won four of her last five tracked matches.
She reached the last eight without playing her round-of-16 match on September 17, which was recorded as a walkover, so she carries no added court time from that round into this one. That is a workload note only: it says nothing about how she will play, and Pohankova may still be the sharper player if she has found rhythm on court.
- The September 17 Caldas da Rainha round-of-16 match between Collins and Cross was recorded as a walkover.
- Cross was subsequently listed as eliminated while Collins remained active in the event.
- Stored recent sample: 4 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 17 Sep 2026, 03:17 · Europe/BucharestSofascore match recordwww.sofascore.com · 17 Sep 2026WTA tournament overviewwww.wtatennis.com · 17 Sep 2026
Collins relies on a first-serve percentage of 56.9% in the last 15 matches and wins only 38.9% of second-serve points on hard courts. Pohankova has a similar first-serve rate at 55.4% but has protected her second serve better.
Collins's high double-fault count adds pressure to her service games and gives Pohankova extra looks at break points. Pohankova's lower double-fault rate and slightly better second-serve points won suggest she is less likely to donate free points in key moments.
- Collins averaged 10.1 double faults per match across her last 15 hard-court matches.
- Pohankova averaged 3.4 double faults per match in her last 15 matches overall.
- Collins won 38.9% of second-serve points on hard courts in the last 15 matches.
- Pohankova won 45.4% of second-serve points overall in the last 15 matches.
Pohankova has won 43% of return points in the last 15 matches, while Collins has won 51%. Collins also saves break points at a slightly higher rate, 59.2% to 57.4%.
Pohankova's lower conversion rate means she may need more opportunities to break serve, while Collins has been more efficient at taking the chances she creates. If the match features several break points, Collins's edge in conversion could be decisive.
- Pohankova converted 38.7% of break points in the last 15 matches.
- Collins converted 55.7% of break points in the last 15 matches.
- Collins won 51% of return points on hard courts in the last 15 matches; Pohankova won 43% overall.
- Collins saved 59.2% of break points faced; Pohankova saved 57.4%.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 4.25
The read
Collins holds the stronger recent form and return-structure edge over the last 15 matches, and the confirmed walkover means she arrives fresher for the quarter-final, outweighing Pohankova's higher ranking.
- Collins last-15 overall: 10-5 (66.7%) with 55.9% games won and 52.0% total points won (15 matches tracked).
- Pohankova last-15 overall: 7-8 (46.7%) with 47.9% games won and 49.4% total points won (15 matches tracked).
- Collins return points won 51.0% vs Pohankova 43.0% over the same 15-match window.
- Both players are on the same Caldas da Rainha hard court this week; Collins won R1/R2/R16 (one by walkover), Pohankova won two straight-sets matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostKylie CollinsEstimated chance58%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches run long and Collins's high double-fault rate plus frequent deciding sets point to a drawn-out scoreline, supporting the over.
- Collins last-15 average match duration 115.9 minutes across 15 tracked matches.
- Pohankova last-15 average match duration 98 minutes; her clay matches averaged 116.4 minutes.
- Collins has played three-setters in 6 of her last 15 matches (e.g. 6-7 6-1 6-3, 7-5 3-6 7-5, 6-3 3-6 6-1).
- Collins double faults 10.1 per match in the window, adding service-game volatility.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Modest first-serve percentages and Collins's double-fault volatility suggest a competitive opening set that clears the 9.5-game line.
- Collins last-15 average match duration 115.9 minutes, with several 7-5 and 7-6 opening sets.
- Pohankova recent sets include 7-6(3), 7-6(6) and 6-4 scorelines.
- Collins double faults 10.1 per match, creating extra games on serve.
- Both players' first-serve percentages sit near 55-57%, limiting free points.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pohankova's solid hard-court games-won rate and straight-sets wins this week suggest she can stay within 3.5 games even if she loses, supporting the handicap.
- Pohankova last-15 games won 47.9% (146/305) vs Collins 55.9% (184/329).
- Pohankova hard-court record in window 3-1 with 60.3% games won.
- Collins games won 55.9% but sets won 63.9%, indicating close sets.
- Pohankova won her two Caldas da Rainha matches 6-4 6-1 and 6-1 6-1.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMia Pohankova +3.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Collins's better set-conversion and break-point conversion rates in the recent window give her a modest edge to take the opening set, though the thin margin keeps confidence low.
- Collins last-15 sets won 63.9% (23/36) vs Pohankova 50.0% (17/34).
- Collins break points converted 55.7% (88/158) vs Pohankova 38.7% (46/119) in the last 15 matches.
- Pohankova first-serve points won 64.3% but second-serve points won only 45.4% in the window.
- No H2H meetings on record.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostKylie CollinsEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Collins's superior return and set-conversion numbers in the recent window give her a slight edge in the second set, though the margin is narrow.
- Collins last-15 sets won 63.9% (23/36) vs Pohankova 50.0% (17/34).
- Collins return points won 51.0% vs Pohankova 43.0% in the window.
- Pohankova second-serve points won only 45.4%, vulnerable to Collins's return pressure.
- Collins break points saved 59.2% vs Pohankova 57.4%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostKylie CollinsEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player closes cleanly in the recent window, with Collins dropping sets in a large share of wins and Pohankova frequently extended, making a three-set match a live possibility.
- Collins last-15: 6 of 15 matches went to a deciding set (40%).
- Pohankova last-15: 5 of 15 matches went three sets, including 1-6 6-4 7-6 and 6-1 4-6 6-4.
- Collins sets won 63.9% (23/36) means she drops sets regularly despite winning matches.
- Both players' average match duration exceeds 95 minutes in the window.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Collins's exceptionally high recent double-fault rate alone nearly clears the line, and Pohankova's own fault rate adds margin, making the over strongly supported.
- Collins last-15 double faults per match 10.1 (152 in 15 matches).
- Pohankova last-15 double faults per match 3.4 (51 in 15 matches).
- Collins career double faults 1496 across 197 matches.
- Pohankova clay-window double faults 4.0 per match, showing she also leaks faults.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a heavy ace server in the recent window, with Collins averaging just one per match, keeping the combined total below the line.
- Collins last-15 aces per match 1.0 (15 in 15 matches).
- Pohankova last-15 aces per match 3.6 (54 in 15 matches).
- Pohankova hard-court aces per match 2.5 in the window.
- Combined recent ace rate is roughly 4.6 per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Mia Pohankova

7W 8L

6-4 6-1#261Matilde Jorge 6-1 6-1#95Sinja Kraus

6-1 6-1#77Katie Volynets

6-3 6-3#341Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez

6-1 4-6 6-4#251Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

6-3 7-5#184Mia Ristic

1-6 6-0 6-1#152Ekaterine Gorgodze

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#221Harmony Tan

6-1 6-4#177Rebeka Masarova

6-2 7-6(1)#49Tamara Korpatsch

6-2 6-2#74Magda Linette

6-4 6-4#36Clara Tauson

6-2 7-6(3)#124Noma Akugue Noha

1-6 6-4 7-6(3)#106Francesca Jones

7-6(6) 6-2#336Tessa Johanna Brockmann

Kylie Collins

10W 5L

6-7(7) 6-1 6-3#377Ariana Arseneault 7-5 6-3#390Reese Brantmeier

6-2 6-2#508Ekaterina Yashina

7-5 3-6 7-5#843Iveta Dapkute

6-4 6-2#581Celia Cervino Ruiz

6-2 6-4#733Jessica Hinojosa Gomez

6-1 6-2#59Tereza Valentova

6-4 6-3#109Anastasia Zakharova

6-0 6-2#669Jaeda Daniel

6-3 3-6 6-1#240Carolyn Ansari

6-4 2-6 7-5#311Anastasia Kulikova

5-7 6-3 6-3#247Sara Saito

3-6 6-3 6-1#333Malaika Rapolu

6-2 7-5#322Ena Koike

6-2 6-2#618Rebecca Marino

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MPMia PohankovaPohankova

Last 15

4–5

9 core stats · 0 even

Kylie CollinsCollinsKC

Kylie Collins carries the stronger recent form — Mia Pohankova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In55.4%+1.5pp56.9%

1st Serve Won64.3%+0.8pp63.5%

2nd Serve Won45.4%+6.5pp38.9%

Aces / Match3.6+2.61.0

Double Faults / Match3.46.7 fewer10.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won43.0%+8.0pp51.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted38.7%+17.0pp55.7%

Break Pts Saved57.4%+1.8pp59.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.4%+2.6pp52.0%

Serve · 4–1

55.4%1st Serve In+1.5pp56.9%

64.3%1st Serve Won+0.8pp63.5%

45.4%2nd Serve Won+6.5pp38.9%

3.6Aces / Match+2.61.0

3.4Double Faults / Match6.7 fewer10.1

Return · 0–1

43.0%Return Pts Won+8.0pp51.0%

Pressure · 0–2

38.7%Break Pts Converted+17.0pp55.7%

57.4%Break Pts Saved+1.8pp59.2%

Points · 0–1

49.4%Total Pts Won+2.6pp52.0%