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Predictions graded

Mia Pohankova #247Slovakia2Katie Swan #187United Kingdom1

Sets 3-6 · 7-5 · 6-1Fri 25 Sept 2026, 15:30 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions8–562%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageKatie Swan · 60 places

Mia Pohankova

Slovakia

Reached a career-best WTA singles ranking of No. 243 in June 2026. Official WTA data shows a strong ranking rise during 2026; no reliable preferred-surface fact was found.

Current ranking: #247
Peak ranking: #243 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Katie Swan

United Kingdom

Swan, 27, is a right-hander who lists hard court as her favourite surface. She returned in 2025 after a long-term back-injury layoff and reached a career-high No. 118 in 2022.

Current ranking: #187
Peak ranking: #118 · 2022
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 174 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Sep 2026, 22:37 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players four ranking places apart, one a 17-year-old junior Wimbledon champion, meet in a Porto quarter-final.

Pohankova is the likelier winner in ordinary terms, and the two quoted prices that offer anything are both hers: 1.95 to win and 1.6 with a 2.5-game start. Swan to win at 1.85, Swan with a 1.5-game cushion at 1.7 and both total-sets prices are on the avoid list.

Context

Pohankova required treatment to her leg and hip area one day before this quarter-final, which leaves her as the only one of the two players carrying a current physical question into the match. She served out the second-round win in straight sets, so there is no retirement, walkover or withdrawal in the record to work from. Nothing has since described how severe the problem is, so the concrete consequence for this match is unknown; it is a condition to monitor rather than an established limitation.
- Medical timeout for treatment to the leg and hip area at 1-0 in the second set against Veronika Podrez
- Match resumed and was completed 6-3 6-4, putting Pohankova into the Porto quarter-finals
ReportedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:34 · Europe/Bucharest
This quarter-final is where two lopsided wins turn into something larger for Swan: reaching the last four in Porto would be her biggest semi-final since Chennai in 2022, ending a four-year gap at that stage of a draw. She sits at No. 208, well below the career-high No. 118 she held in October 2022, so a deep run at this level matters for her ranking position. It frames what is at stake for her in this round rather than establishing an on-court advantage over her opponent.
- 6-1 6-0 win over qualifier Valentina Steiner to reach the Porto quarter-finals
- A semi-final at this event would be her biggest since Chennai in 2022
- Swan is the ninth seed at the WTA 125 event in Porto
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:34 · Europe/Bucharest
The Caldas da Rainha run is the strongest stretch of hard-court results in Pohankova's record and it explains why she arrives at this quarter-final with six completed matches in 11 days across two consecutive Portuguese WTA 125 events. The straight-set wins measure her level against a draw of this size, including 6-1 6-1 against the top seed at that event, Sinja Kraus. The three-set semi-final loss to Gabriela Knutson on 19 September is the counterweight: she was beaten in Portugal this month and her workload already includes a long match.
- First WTA 125 semi-final of her career at Caldas da Rainha, reached without dropping a set
- 6-1 6-1 win over top seed Sinja Kraus in the opening round on 14 September
- Three-set semi-final defeat by Gabriela Knutson, 5-7 7-5 3-6, on 19 September
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:34 · Europe/Bucharest
Two straight-set wins with a single game conceded each are the strongest form results in this matchup, but both came against opponents ranked outside the top 340 who entered the main draw as a lucky loser and a qualifier. Pohankova is the first player Swan has faced this week who is ranked close to her, and the first who has beaten higher-ranked opposition in Portugal. The scorelines show Swan has handled the matches she was expected to win; they do not show she has been tested at this level this week.
- 6-1 6-0 first-round win over lucky loser Sahaja Yamalapalli, ranked No. 349, on 22 September
- 6-1 6-0 second-round win over qualifier Valentina Steiner, ranked No. 399,
- Entered as the ninth seed, ranked No. 208 with a career-high of No. 118
ConfirmedSources checked 24 Sep 2026, 22:34 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.50fair 1.56

BetBugs 64% · Market 66.7%

−2.7ppshort

Straight-set finishes dominate both recent records, making two sets the more likely match length.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Pohankova has the stronger body of evidence, with solid hard-court serve and return numbers built against higher-ranked opponents.
- 6-2 on hard in this window, including 6-1 6-1 over top seed Sinja Kraus (No. 95)
- Hard-court totals: 54% of points won, 58.8% of games won, 61.7% of break points saved across eight matches
- Beat Francisca Jorge 6-2 6-1 in Porto's first round after reaching a first WTA 125 semi-final the week before
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMia PohankovaEstimated chance55%

Games5 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Pohankova has rarely been beaten heavily on this surface, so a 2.5-game cushion covers most plausible results.
- Pohankova lost only 45 games across her six completed hard-court matches
- Her worst recent hard-court result was a three-game loss to Knutson
- She won 90 of 153 hard-court games (58.8%) in the wider sample
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMia Pohankova +2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Pohankova has stayed close on the scoreboard in nearly every recent hard-court match, so a 1.5-game cushion covers most outcomes.
- Pohankova won 90 of 153 hard-court games (58.8%) this window
- Five of her six completed hard-court matches finished within one game or better on margin
- Her only heavy recent loss was 15-18 to Gabriela Knutson
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMia Pohankova +1.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been the shorter set for both players, with the majority finishing under ten games.
- Nine of the twelve tracked second sets finished under ten games
- Swan's same-surface second sets average 7.5 total games
- Pohankova's same-surface second sets average 8.6 total games
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Swan's hard-court wins have been wide enough that a one-game cushion covers most of her losing scenarios too.
- Swan's recent hard-court margin is +39 games over six completed matches
- She has won 11 of 14 sets in that sample
- Four of her five hard-court wins were straight sets with double-digit game margins
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostKatie Swan +1.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two averages sit right on the line, and a match between similar-ranked players should keep sets closer than the recent blowouts.
- Pohankova's hard-court matches average 19.1 total games; Swan's average 18.8
- Pohankova has had three recent hard-court matches finish at 19 games or more
- Both players' three-set matches pushed the total well above the line
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 19.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined first-set game averages sit just below 9.5, leaning slightly to the under.
- Pohankova's same-surface first sets average 9.375 total games
- Swan's same-surface first sets average 8.67 total games
- Both of Swan's Porto first sets finished at seven games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pohankova has finished with more games in most of her recent hard-court work, which matches the narrow match-winner lean.
- Pohankova won 76 of 121 games in her six completed hard-court matches (margin +31)
- She won 90 of 153 games (58.8%) across the wider eight-match hard-court sample
- Her only negative recent games margin was 15-18 against Gabriela Knutson
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMia Pohankova -0.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both recent records, making two sets the more likely match length.
- Ten of Pohankova's eight and Swan's six combined hard-court matches ended in straight sets
- Swan has won four of six tracked hard-court matches 2-0
- Pohankova has won six of eight tracked hard-court matches 2-0
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pohankova's second-set record is the stronger of the two, with seven wins from eight.
- Pohankova has won the second set in 7 of 8 hard-court matches
- Her second-set game average on hard is 5.5 won to 3.1 lost
- She won both her Porto sets 6-2 and 6-1 against Francisca Jorge
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMia PohankovaEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Pohankova has started well in most of her hard-court matches, giving her a narrow edge in the opening set.
- Pohankova has won the opening set in 6 of 8 hard-court matches
- She opened with 6-2 6-1 against Francisca Jorge in Porto
- Her same-surface first sets average 5.4 games won to 4.0 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMia PohankovaEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent hard-court matches for both players have mostly avoided tiebreaks.
- Only two of the fourteen tracked hard-court matches across both players featured a tiebreak
- Swan's six hard-court matches produced one tiebreak
- Pohankova's eight same-surface matches produced one tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Previous match context available

Mia Pohankova

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#125Veronika Podrez 6-2 6-1#213Francisca Jorge 7-5 5-7 6-3#163Gabriela Andrea Knutson 7-6(3) 6-4#330Kylie Collins

6-4 6-1#255Matilde Jorge

6-1 6-1#95Sinja Kraus

6-1 6-1#77Katie Volynets

6-3 6-3#343Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez

6-1 4-6 6-4#243Caijsa Wilda Hennemann

6-3 7-5#191Mia Ristic

1-6 6-0 6-1#154Ekaterine Gorgodze

7-6(3) 2-6 6-1#236Harmony Tan

6-1 6-4#173Rebeka Masarova

6-2 7-6(1)#51Tamara Korpatsch

6-2 6-2#74Magda Linette

Katie Swan

10W 5L

6-1 6-0#399Valentina Steiner

6-1 6-0#349Sahaja Yamalapalli

4-0 ret.#255Matilde Jorge

6-4 3-6 6-1#305Malaika Rapolu

6-0 6-2#343Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#114Mary Stoiana

6-3 6-1#238Katrina Scott

6-1 6-4#22Madison Keys

6-4 6-4#451Irina-Camelia Begu

6-4 7-6(5)#65Viktorija Golubic

6-1 ret.#71Ashlyn Krueger

7-5 6-2#316Tereza Martincova

7-6(4) 3-2 ret.#102Ajla Tomljanovic

6-4 6-2#94Taylah Preston

7-5 6-1#322Kyoka Okamura

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MPMia PohankovaPohankova

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Katie SwanSwanKS

Katie Swan carries the stronger recent form — Mia Pohankova's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In56.0%+9.8pp65.8%

1st Serve Won65.5%+2.6pp68.1%

2nd Serve Won44.3%+2.2pp46.5%

Aces / Match3.2+0.42.8

Double Faults / Match3.10.4 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won44.4%+2.6pp47.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted43.6%+2.9pp46.5%

Break Pts Saved55.9%+1.4pp57.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.3%+3.2pp53.5%

Serve · 1–4

56.0%1st Serve In+9.8pp65.8%

65.5%1st Serve Won+2.6pp68.1%

44.3%2nd Serve Won+2.2pp46.5%

3.2Aces / Match+0.42.8

3.1Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

44.4%Return Pts Won+2.6pp47.0%

Pressure · 0–2

43.6%Break Pts Converted+2.9pp46.5%

55.9%Break Pts Saved+1.4pp57.3%

Points · 0–1

50.3%Total Pts Won+3.2pp53.5%

Mia Pohankova

Katie Swan

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mia Pohankova +2.5

Mia Pohankova

Under 2.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games5 of 7 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Mia Pohankova

Katie Swan

Stat Battle