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Predictions graded

Harold Mayot #255France2Murphy Cassone #307United States1

Sets 5-7 · 6-2 · 4-2Sat 26 Sept 2026, 12:14 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions1–233%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHarold Mayot · 52 places

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Murphy Cassone

United States

Cassone reached a career-high No. 172 on 18 August 2025. Official profile data lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #307
Peak ranking: #172 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 22:22 · Europe/Bucharest

Both players saved three match points in the quarterfinals to reach a Saint-Tropez semifinal worth a place in the final.

Mayot, the world No. 237, has the better hard-court record and first-serve numbers, so he is the likelier winner, but Cassone has won nine of his last ten completed hard-court matches. At 1.6 to win, Mayot is priced well beyond that edge; the 1.7 first set and 2.5 for a 2-0 win are short as well. No reviewed price is worth taking.

Context

Both men reached this semifinal by the narrowest route, and the saves came against very different opposition: Mayot's against third seed Jesper de Jong, ranked No. 95, and Cassone's in a 14-12 tiebreak against Daniel Masur, ranked outside the top 400. Taken together, the scorelines establish that neither player arrives with a comfortable quarterfinal behind him, and Mayot's is the more significant result because de Jong is the highest-ranked opponent either faced this week. The same match-point count against a top-100 seed and against a No. 406 opponent is not the same evidence of form, so the two escapes should not be read as equivalent.
- Mayot trailed 3-5 in the deciding set, with de Jong serving for the match and holding three match points, before winning 6-3 4-6 7-5.
- De Jong was the third seed and is ranked No. 95, while Mayot is ranked No. 237.
- Cassone saved three match points against Masur, taking the second-set tiebreak 14-12 before winning 6-7(4) 7-6(12) 6-4.
- Masur is ranked No. 406.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Mayot's run at Saint-Tropez is his third successive Challenger semifinal and the most sustained stretch of results in his recent record, so the points at stake here feed a specific target rather than a form line alone. That target is a place in the Australian Open qualifying field, which for a player outside the top 200 decides whether he starts a Grand Slam in the qualifying draw at all. The position depends on results elsewhere in the field, so it is a trajectory rather than a secured entry.
- Mayot has now made the semifinals at three successive Challenger tournaments.
- His Saint-Tropez run has brought him towards the Australian Open qualifying positions.
ReportedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest
Cassone's path here is two matches longer than Mayot's: he played two qualifying rounds before the main draw while Mayot entered as a special exempt, and he has completed five matches since 20 September against three for his opponent. Accumulated matches at Challenger level tend to matter most in the closing rounds, which makes the semifinal the stage where the extra load is most likely to show. The counterweight is that Mayot's three matches included two three-setters, so this is a difference in matches played rather than in time on court.
- Cassone had to qualify for the main draw, adding two matches to his week.
- Mayot was admitted to the main draw as a special exempt.
- Cassone has completed five matches since 20 September 2026, three of them in the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Saint-Tropez Openen.wikipedia.org · 21 Sep 2026
Their single previous meeting, ten days before this semifinal, produced no tennis, so the head-to-head gives no read on how the two match up or how either handles the other's serve. It also means Mayot's run at Rennes, the results that made him eligible for a special exempt place here, included a round he never had to play. A walkover records only that a match did not happen, so it carries no information about the level either player would have produced.
- Cassone did not take the court for the Rennes round of 16, sending Mayot into the quarterfinals without playing.
- The walkover is the only recorded meeting between the two players.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 22:20 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match Winnernot gradableUncertainty band: Slight lean

Harold Mayot

1.60fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 62.5%

−5.5ppshort

Mayot's higher ranking, stronger serve numbers and tougher recent wins give him a slight advantage.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Harold Mayot

1.70fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 58.8%

−3.8ppshort

Mayot's strong first-set record and higher ranking give him a slight advantage to start well.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Harold Mayot 2-0

2.50fair 3.03

BetBugs 33% · Market 40%

−7.0ppshort

Mayot's straight-set wins are his most common scoreline and his serve gives him a good chance to finish in two.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Mayot's higher ranking, stronger serve numbers and tougher recent wins give him a slight advantage.
- Mayot is 12-3 on hard in his last 15 and ranked 237.
- Mayot has won 72.7% of first-serve points and 52.4% of total points in that span.
- Mayot saved three match points to beat No. 95 De Jong in the quarterfinals.
- Cassone is ranked 318 and had to qualify for the main draw.
BetBugs · Match Winnernot gradableHarold MayotEstimated chance57%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets often go beyond nine games, and Cassone's tiebreak rate lifts the total.
- Mayot's first sets average 9.6 total games.
- Cassone's first sets average 10.8 total games.
- Mayot has two first-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
- Cassone has four first-set tiebreaks in 10 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total Gamesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cassone's matches often go long and Mayot's recent three-setter add to the chance of a high game count.
- Mayot's hard-court matches average 22.8 total games.
- Cassone's hard-court matches average 25.0 total games.
- Both players average 2.4 sets per match, so three-set battles are common.
- Cassone has had a tiebreak in 6 of 10 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total Gamesnot gradableOver 23.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's short second sets and the low tiebreak count point to under 9.5 games.
- Mayot's second sets average 8.87 total games.
- Cassone's second sets average 9.8 total games.
- Mayot has no second-set tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
- Cassone has only two second-set tiebreaks in 10 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total Gamesnot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results are the more common outcome for both players.
- Mayot has won 7 of 15 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Cassone has won 5 of 10 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Both players average 2.4 sets per match, meaning 60% of their matches end in straight sets.
- Mayot's serve numbers are strong, which can help avoid a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total Setsnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.70
The read
Mayot's strong first-set record and higher ranking give him a slight advantage to start well.
- Mayot has won the first set in 11 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Mayot wins 5.33 games per first set and loses 4.27.
- Cassone has won the first set in 7 of 10 hard-court matches.
- Mayot is ranked 237, higher than Cassone's 318.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's slight overall advantage and second-set record give him a narrow lead.
- Mayot has won the second set in 9 of 15 hard-court matches.
- Mayot averages 4.73 second-set games won and 4.13 lost.
- Cassone has won the second set in 7 of 10 hard-court matches.
- Mayot's total points won is 52.4% on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance52%

Prediction history

Harold Mayot: 3/6 recent winner projections matched

3 of 6 comparable winner projections favouring Harold Mayot matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Harold Mayot6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#457Juan Cruz Martin Manzano2-0#200Harold Mayot

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·72%

Missed

14 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#457Juan Cruz Martin Manzano2-0#200Harold Mayot

Harold Mayot to win

72%probability

Juan Cruz Martin Manzano won

Missed

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#233Alejandro Moro Canas2-0#201Harold Mayot

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·58%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#233Alejandro Moro Canas2-0#201Harold Mayot

Harold Mayot to win

58%probability

Alejandro Moro Canas won

Missed

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#861Nicolas Moreno De Alboran0-2#203Harold Mayot

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·62%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#861Nicolas Moreno De Alboran0-2#203Harold Mayot

Harold Mayot to win

62%probability

Harold Mayot won

Matched

1 Jun·Centurion - South Africa

#214Harold Mayot2-1#670Yusuke Takahashi

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·65%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

Centurion - South Africa

#214Harold Mayot2-1#670Yusuke Takahashi

Harold Mayot to win

65%probability

Harold Mayot won

Matched

25 May·Centurion - South Africa

#217Harold Mayot2-0#542Millen Hurrion

BetBugsHarold Mayot to win·72%

Matched

25 May 2026

Centurion - South Africa

#217Harold Mayot2-0#542Millen Hurrion

Harold Mayot to win

72%probability

Harold Mayot won

Matched

Previous match context available

Harold Mayot

12W 3L

6-3 4-6 7-5#95Jesper De Jong 6-4 6-3#198Edas Butvilas

6-4 2-6 7-6(2)#418Justin Boulais

4-6 6-3 7-5#217Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-3#152Tristan Schoolkate 6-4 6-4#177Clement Chidekh

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#160Clement Tabur

6-1 6-3#241Max Basing

6-4 6-2#358Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#512Adrian Boitan

6-2 6-4#272Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-4#173Daniil Glinka

3-6 6-3 6-4#672Max Purcell

6-3 6-2#120Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-2#899Filip Pieczonka

Murphy Cassone

10W 5L

6-7(4) 7-6(12) 6-4#406Daniel Masur 7-6(3) 6-4#231Billy Harris 7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#160Clement Tabur 6-2 7-5#514Patrick Zahraj 6-4 6-0—Hugo Car

6-3 7-6(8)#226Inaki Montes-De La Torre

6-5 ret.#178Harry Wendelken

6-3 6-3#61Arthur Gea

6-2 6-1#336Philip Sekulic

6-7(7) 6-2 7-5#399Blaise Bicknell

7-5 4-6 7-6(4)#152Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 1-6 6-3#166Darwin Blanch

6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#57Ethan Quinn

6-4 4-6 6-4#96Alex Molcan

7-5 6-1#306Filippo Romano

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HMHarold MayotMayot

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Murphy CassoneCassoneMC

Murphy Cassone carries the stronger recent form — Harold Mayot's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In67.1%+3.0pp64.1%

1st Serve Won72.7%+1.7pp74.4%

2nd Serve Won53.3%+2.1pp55.4%

Aces / Match4.7+1.05.7

Double Faults / Match1.31.1 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.7%+3.7pp36.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted38.5%+8.6pp47.1%

Break Pts Saved63.9%—64.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won52.4%—51.7%

Serve · 2–3

67.1%1st Serve In+3.0pp64.1%

72.7%1st Serve Won+1.7pp74.4%

53.3%2nd Serve Won+2.1pp55.4%

4.7Aces / Match+1.05.7

1.3Double Faults / Match1.1 fewer2.4

Return · 1–0

39.7%Return Pts Won+3.7pp36.0%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

38.5%Break Pts Converted+8.6pp47.1%

63.9%Break Pts Saved—64.4%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

52.4%Total Pts Won—51.7%