FranceSaint-Tropez - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Harold Mayot #255France2Jesper De Jong #105Netherlands1

Sets 6-3 · 4-6 · 7-5Fri 25 Sept 2026, 12:20 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJesper De Jong · 150 places

Harold Mayot

France

Mayot reached career-high No. 103 in October 2024. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface; he was the 2020 Australian Open boys' singles champion and a junior world No. 1.

Current ranking: #255
Peak ranking: #103 · 2024
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

Born 31 May 2000. Public biographical records list a career-high No. 71 in January 2026; no reliable preferred-surface source was found in this search.

Current ranking: #105
Peak ranking: #71 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 03:06 · Europe/Bucharest

A No. 95 seed against a No. 237 who has been the better hard-court player in this stretch: Mayot looks the likelier winner, with De Jong needing six match points and two tie-break wins to reach this quarter-final.

The quoted 1.9 on Mayot to win the match and De Jong's 1.8 prices offer no clear advantage, and the 1.9 on Mayot for the opening set is close to a coin flip.

Context

Mayot has now reached the last eight at four straight events, and this was his cleanest win of the week against an opponent ranked inside the top 200. That matters because the ranking gap in this fixture, No. 95 against No. 237, is not reflected in how the two players have been winning matches over the past fortnight. The limitation is that the sequence has not yet produced a title, and the run immediately before Saint-Tropez ended in a final he lost after taking the first set.
- Mayot beat Edas Butvilas 6-4 6-3 in the last 16 at Saint-Tropez .
- The win made it four consecutive quarter-final appearances for Mayot and his seventh quarter-final of 2026.
- Butvilas was ranked No. 198, above Mayot's No. 237.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 03:04 · Europe/Bucharest
Both of De Jong's wins in Saint-Tropez have been settled by tie-breaks, and the second required him to save six match points against an opponent ranked No. 169. The question this fixture raises is why a top-100 player and third seed has been unable to separate himself from lower-ranked opposition at this event. It also means he came into the quarter-final off a long, tight match rather than a comfortable one. The counterpoint is that he held the decisive points in both matches, which is directly relevant in a first meeting between the two.
- De Jong saved six match points before beating Andrea Guerrieri 3-6 7-6(8) 7-6(2).
- The win put De Jong, the third seed, into the quarter-final against Mayot.
- De Jong's previous match, a 7-6 7-6 win over Remy Bertola in the first round, was also decided in tie-breaks.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 03:04 · Europe/Bucharest
Mayot played five matches at Rennes and then opened in Saint-Tropez within two days, which makes his the heavier recent schedule of the two players. The shape of the defeat is also informative: he won the opening set of the final and then lost the next two, having kept the match alive by saving match points against him. That is the clearest recent evidence of where his level sits, and it shows he can extend a player who ended the week with a title. The limitation is that a five-match week and a short turnaround can leave a player either sharp or short of energy, and there is no current report of a physical problem.
- Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg beat Harold Mayot 4-6 6-3 7-5 to win the Challenger 100 final at Rennes.
- Gueymard Wayenburg needed a long sequence of match points to close the final out, with Mayot saving several of them.
- Mayot's first match in Saint-Tropez followed the Rennes final within two days.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 03:04 · Europe/Bucharest
De Jong's serve is the part of his game the counted numbers single out in a window running to 24 September 2026.
When the first serve lands, De Jong is hard to break: he wins 74.1% of those points. The problem is how often it does not land, and he has saved only 55.7% of the break points he has faced (59 of 106). Mayot has been the steadier server of the two, at 1.3 double faults a match, so holding serve may prove the swing factor between them.
- De Jong's tracked window to 24 September 2026, 14 matches with serve data: 89 double faults, 6.4 per match.
- First serve in: 688 of 1,234 (55.8%).
- First-serve points won: 510 of 688 (74.1%).
- Break points saved: 59 of 106 (55.7%).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Harold Mayot

1.90fair 1.92

BetBugs 52% · Market 52.6%

−0.6ppshort

Mayot has been the cleaner hard-court performer through this stretch while De Jong has been scraping past lower-ranked opponents.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Mayot has been the cleaner hard-court performer through this stretch while De Jong has been scraping past lower-ranked opponents.
- Mayot is 11-3 in hard-court matches in this window; De Jong is 6-4.
- Mayot has won 55.0% of hard-court games (171/311) against De Jong's 52.0% (132/254).
- De Jong saved six match points to beat No. 169 Andrea Guerrieri in the last round.
- De Jong's first serve landed on only 53.9% of hard-court points in this window.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance52%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both men have played long, tight matches this week, and De Jong's serving lapses plus Mayot's three-setters at Rennes push totals up.
- Mayot's hard-court matches in this window average 22.2 games, De Jong's 21.4.
- Mayot's last two wins finished with 19 and 31 games; De Jong's last two finished with 39 and 26.
- De Jong has played four tie-break sets across his two matches at this event.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets for both men have typically run close to or past ten games, with tie-breaks a regular feature.
- Mayot's first sets on hard average 9.64 games; De Jong's average 10.25.
- De Jong's two matches at this event produced four tie-break sets between them.
- Four of Mayot's 14 hard-court first sets went to a tie-break or a 7-5 scoreline.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot has kept second sets tight and short on hard, and he is the more likely player to close this one without extra games.
- Mayot's hard-court second sets average 8.79 games, with no tie-breaks recorded.
- De Jong's second sets on hard average 9.5 games.
- Mayot has closed second sets 6-4 and 6-3 in several recent wins.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are the norm for both players in this window, with Mayot particularly efficient in his last two rounds.
- Mayot's hard-court record includes 7 straight-set wins in 14 matches.
- De Jong's hard-court scorelines are 4 straight-set wins, 1 three-set win and 3 straight-set losses.
- Mayot's straight-set wins this week came 6-4 6-3 and 6-3 6-3.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Mayot has been the stronger starter on hard courts, taking first sets in more than two-thirds of these matches.
- Mayot has won 10 of 14 opening sets on hard; De Jong has won 4 of 8.
- Mayot averages 5.29 games won to 4.36 lost in first sets on hard.
- De Jong lost the opening set 3-6 to Guerrieri in the last round.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHarold MayotEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's second sets on hard have been slightly more productive than De Jong's, though both are close.
- Mayot has won 9 of 14 second sets on hard; De Jong has won 5 of 8.
- Mayot averages 4.79 games won to 4.00 lost in second sets on hard.
- De Jong's second-set losses on hard include dropping the middle set against Guerrieri.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostHarold MayotEstimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Mayot's clean set-closing on hard means plenty of matches finish without a tie-break.
- Most of Mayot's hard-court matches in this window had no tie-break at all.
- Mayot's last two wins came 6-4 6-3 and with only one tie-break set across three sets.
- De Jong's earlier round against Heredia finished without a tie-break.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The expected ace count for the pair sits comfortably below this line in an average-length match.
- Combined hard-court ace averages come to about 11 per match.
- Mayot averages 4.7 aces per hard-court match across 14 matches.
- Mayot's two wins at this event produced few free points on serve.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 13.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
De Jong's serve has been misfiring badly, and he alone nearly reaches this line in an average match.
- De Jong averages 7.0 double faults per hard-court match in this window.
- De Jong has 63 double faults in 9 hard-court matches.
- Mayot adds only 1.3 double faults per hard-court match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Harold Mayot

11W 4L

6-4 6-3#198Edas Butvilas

6-4 2-6 7-6(2)#418Justin Boulais

4-6 6-3 7-5#217Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-3 6-3#152Tristan Schoolkate 6-4 6-4#177Clement Chidekh

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#160Clement Tabur

6-1 6-3#241Max Basing

6-4 6-2#358Dimitar Kuzmanov

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#512Adrian Boitan

6-2 6-4#272Cezar Cretu

6-3 6-4#173Daniil Glinka

3-6 6-3 6-4#672Max Purcell

6-3 6-2#120Gustavo Heide

6-2 6-2#899Filip Pieczonka

6-3 6-7(6) 6-4#265Kilian Feldbausch

Jesper De Jong

8W 7L

3-6 7-6(8) 7-6(2)#169Andrea Guerrieri 7-6(5) 7-6(5)#204Remy Bertola

6-2 6-4#647Samuel Heredia

7-5 1-6 6-2 7-6(2)#38Zizou Bergs

2-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-2#223Francesco Passaro

6-2 6-4#99Adam Walton

7-6(2) 6-1#97Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-1#146Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-5 6-0#110Dane Sweeny

6-4 6-4#34Alex Michelsen

1-6 6-4 6-3#199Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-2#51Sebastian Baez

7-6(1) 7-5#117Vilius Gaubas

6-1 7-5 6-4#28Joao Fonseca

7-6(4) 3-6 5-7 6-4 6-3#82Rinky Hijikata

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

HMHarold MayotMayot

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Jesper De JongJongJJ

Harold Mayot carries the stronger recent form — Jesper De Jong's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1566.4%+10.6pp55.8%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1571.9%+2.2pp74.1%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.6%+6.2pp45.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.7+3.78.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.35.1 fewer6.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.4%+1.7pp37.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1537.5%+3.6pp33.9%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1562.5%+6.8pp55.7%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1551.8%+2.2pp49.6%

Serve · 3–2

66.4%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+10.6pp55.8%

71.9%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.2pp74.1%

51.6%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+6.2pp45.4%

4.7Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+3.78.4

1.3Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/155.1 fewer6.4

Return · 1–0

39.4%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.7pp37.7%

Pressure · 2–0

37.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+3.6pp33.9%

62.5%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+6.8pp55.7%

Points · 1–0

51.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.2pp49.6%