FranceSaint-Tropez - FranceFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Andrea Guerrieri #213Italy1Jesper De Jong #105Netherlands2

Sets 6-3 · 6-7 · 6-7Thu 24 Sept 2026, 15:47 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–456%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJesper De Jong · 108 places

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

Reached a career-high No. 213 on 20 July 2026. He is listed as a left-hander with a two-handed backhand and hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #213
Peak ranking: #213 · 2026
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 180 cm

Jesper De Jong

Netherlands

Born 31 May 2000. Public biographical records list a career-high No. 71 in January 2026; no reliable preferred-surface source was found in this search.

Current ranking: #105
Peak ranking: #71 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 22:33 · Europe/Bucharest

De Jong, the third seed and world No. 95, is the likelier winner, but his 1.36 price demands a 73.5% chance and this matchup does not support one.

Guerrieri at 2.9 is the only quoted price worth taking, backed by a 9-3 hard-court record, 67% of break points saved on the surface and a left-handed look. The risk is that the wins on his recent list came against players ranked outside the top 150.

Context

De Jong's week before arriving in France was spent at a Davis Cup World Group I tie in Den Bosch rather than in on-site preparation, and he won his singles match there in straight sets . He then changed country and played his Saint-Tropez opener three days later, with one full day between that match and this one. That is a compressed sequence relative to Guerrieri's build-up, though De Jong arrives with match wins behind him.
- Named in the Netherlands squad for the Davis Cup World Group I tie against Colombia in Den Bosch, 18-
- Won a singles match 6-2 6-4
- Opened his week in Saint-Tropez on 22 September 2026
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 22:31 · Europe/Bucharest
The US Open block is the most recent sustained test of Guerrieri's level: three qualifying wins followed by a main-draw match against a top-10 seed, and it came immediately before this European hard-court swing. It is also the run that produced his current career-high ranking. The limitation is that the main draw itself ended in a straight-sets defeat, so it marks a step up in level rather than a win at that level.
- Came through qualifying into a first Grand Slam main draw
- First-round loss 6-2 6-2 6-4 to the sixth seed
- New career-high ranking of No. 164 recorded after the event
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 22:31 · Europe/Bucharest
De Jong's most recent Grand Slam week is the clearest reference for his hard-court level: he worked off two deficits in a five-set first round that rain pushed into a second day, then lost in four sets to a top-40 opponent. He said afterwards that his own serving had not been good enough, which identifies one part of his game he was trying to sharpen. The run stopped in the second round, so it establishes his level without showing him beating higher-ranked players.
- Five-set first-round win over Francesco Passaro at the 2026 US Open
- Rain suspended the match, which resumed the following day
- Second-round loss in four sets to Zizou Bergs
- Post-match comment that his own serving had not been good enough
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 22:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Guerrieri's hard-court matches have been long, tight affairs rather than quick wins.
His 6-5 first-set record gives way to 5-6 in second sets, so the pattern is not a fast start he protects but a match that keeps extending. Against a server of De Jong's size that tendency points towards a longer contest, though it says nothing about who takes a deciding set. The sample is 11 matches over seven weeks, so it describes recent shape rather than a fixed expectation.
- 11 completed hard-court best-of-3 matches, 4 August to 21 September 2026
- Seven of the 11 went to a deciding set (2-1 scoreline)
- Average 2.64 sets and 24.3 games per match
- Set 1 record 6-5, set 2 record 5-6

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
De Jong is the higher-ranked, bigger-serving player, and his recent hard-court defeats have come against top-100 opposition rather than players at Guerrieri's level.
- De Jong is ranked No. 95 and is the third seed here; Guerrieri is No. 169.
- Hard-court records in the tracked windows: De Jong 5-4, Guerrieri 9-3.
- On hard, De Jong wins 74.8% of first-serve points and 6.3 aces per match, against 71.4% and 3.7 for Guerrieri.
- Hard-court total points won is nearly level: De Jong 50.7%, Guerrieri 51.2%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJesper De JongEstimated chance59%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guerrieri's matches regularly run long and De Jong has just played a 26-game straight-sets match, so the total has a slight lean above the line.
- Guerrieri's hard-court best-of-3 matches average 24.3 total games; De Jong's average 19.4.
- Guerrieri has gone to a deciding set in 7 of 11 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- De Jong's opening match here was 7-6 7-6, 26 games in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players hold serve well enough that opening sets often reach double figures in games.
- De Jong's first sets average 10.4 games; Guerrieri's average 9.1.
- De Jong has had two first-set tiebreaks in seven hard-court matches; Guerrieri one in eleven.
- Guerrieri's hard-court three-set matches have often started 6-3 or 3-6 before extending.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second sets have been tight for both players, with averages sitting right around the line.
- Guerrieri's hard-court second sets average 10.0 games; De Jong's average 9.0.
- Guerrieri's second-set record is 5-6, De Jong's 4-3.
- De Jong's first match here produced two tiebreak sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Guerrieri's recent hard-court matches usually go the distance and the two players' hard-court point totals are almost identical.
- 7 of Guerrieri's 11 hard-court best-of-3 matches went to a deciding set.
- De Jong's seven hard-court best-of-3 matches all finished in straight sets.
- Average sets per match in the samples: Guerrieri 2.64, De Jong 2.00.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
De Jong's serve gives him a small edge in the opening set against a lower-ranked opponent.
- De Jong has won the first set in 4 of 7 hard-court best-of-3 matches.
- Guerrieri has won the first set in 6 of 11 such matches.
- De Jong's first sets average 10.4 games, with two tiebreaks in seven.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJesper De JongEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
De Jong has been the more reliable second-set performer of the two in this window.
- De Jong's hard-court best-of-3 second sets are 4 wins and 3 losses.
- Guerrieri's second sets on hard are 5 wins and 6 losses.
- De Jong has won his opening match here in two tiebreak sets without dropping a set.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonJesper De JongEstimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have appeared in only about a quarter of both players' recent hard-court matches, so the no side is the more likely result.
- Guerrieri's hard-court matches contained a tiebreak 3 times in 11; De Jong's 2 in 7.
- Guerrieri's first and second sets average 9.1 and 10.0 games.
- De Jong's hard-court best-of-3 matches average 19.4 total games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
De Jong supplies most of the aces and Guerrieri adds little, leaving the combined figure just below the line.
- De Jong averages 6.3 aces per hard-court match; Guerrieri 3.7.
- Their combined hard-court average is about 10 aces per match.
- De Jong's 8.1 per match overall is inflated by best-of-five matches at the US Open.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 11.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players give away plenty of double faults, with De Jong's rate in particular pushing the combined figure above the line.
- De Jong averages 6.8 double faults per hard-court match; Guerrieri 4.3.
- Their combined hard-court average is about 11.1 per match.
- De Jong's double-fault rate is 6.4 per match across all tracked matches.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 10.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Jesper De Jong: 7/10 recent winner projections matched

7 of 10 comparable winner projections favouring Jesper De Jong matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Jesper De Jong10 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·ATP Estoril

#163Timofey Skatov2-1#98Jesper De Jong

BetBugsJesper De Jong to win·62%

Missed

21 Jul 2026

ATP Estoril

#163Timofey Skatov2-1#98Jesper De Jong

Jesper De Jong to win

62%probability

Timofey Skatov won

Missed

13 Jul·ATP Bastad

#73Jesper De Jong2-0#129Vilius Gaubas

BetBugsJesper De Jong to win·72%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

ATP Bastad

#73Jesper De Jong2-0#129Vilius Gaubas

Jesper De Jong to win

72%probability

Jesper De Jong won

Matched

16 Jun·Parma - Italy

#83Jesper De Jong0-2#225Laslo Djere

BetBugsJesper De Jong to win·62%

Missed

16 Jun 2026

Parma - Italy

#83Jesper De Jong0-2#225Laslo Djere

Jesper De Jong to win

62%probability

Laslo Djere won

Missed

11 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#83Jesper De Jong2-1#341Federico Bondioli

BetBugsJesper De Jong to win·78%

Matched

11 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#83Jesper De Jong2-1#341Federico Bondioli

Jesper De Jong to win

78%probability

Jesper De Jong won

Matched

9 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#106Jesper De Jong2-0#361Ognjen Milic

BetBugsJesper De Jong to win·82%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#106Jesper De Jong2-0#361Ognjen Milic

Jesper De Jong to win

82%probability

Jesper De Jong won

Matched

Previous match context available

Andrea Guerrieri

10W 5L

6-3 6-7(4) 6-3#171Francesco Maestrelli

6-2 6-2 6-4#9Alex De Minaur

6-2 6-4#426Aziz Dougaz

3-6 6-4 6-1#185Joel Schwaerzler

6-3 6-7(4) 6-2#242August Holmgren

6-3 6-3#158Soon-Woo Kwon

6-4 1-6 6-1#523Alexander Donski

7-6(4) 6-1#185Joel Schwaerzler

0-6 6-3 6-4#173Daniil Glinka

4-6 7-5 6-2#263Michele Ribecai

6-4 4-6 6-2#467Viktor Durasovic

6-1 6-4#402Olle Wallin

6-4 6-4#200Federico Agustin Gomez

6-3 7-6(5)#244Luca Nardi

6-1 6-2#129Hugo Dellien

Jesper De Jong

7W 8L

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#204Remy Bertola

6-2 6-4#647Samuel Heredia

7-5 1-6 6-2 7-6(2)#38Zizou Bergs

2-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-2#223Francesco Passaro

6-2 6-4#99Adam Walton

7-6(2) 6-1#97Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-1#146Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-5 6-0#110Dane Sweeny

6-4 6-4#34Alex Michelsen

1-6 6-4 6-3#199Timofey Skatov

6-4 6-2#51Sebastian Baez

7-6(1) 7-5#117Vilius Gaubas

6-1 7-5 6-4#28Joao Fonseca

7-6(4) 3-6 5-7 6-4 6-3#82Rinky Hijikata

6-3 7-5#181Laslo Djere

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AGAndrea GuerrieriGuerrieri

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Jesper De JongJongJJ

Andrea Guerrieri carries the stronger recent form — Jesper De Jong's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.1%+1.6pp55.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1569.6%+4.3pp73.9%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1551.0%+5.7pp45.3%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/153.2+4.98.1

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.12.3 fewer6.4

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1539.8%+2.1pp37.7%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1536.1%+3.3pp32.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1563.9%+3.9pp60.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.5%+1.0pp49.5%

Serve · 3–2

57.1%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+1.6pp55.5%

69.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.3pp73.9%

51.0%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+5.7pp45.3%

3.2Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+4.98.1

4.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.3 fewer6.4

Return · 1–0

39.8%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+2.1pp37.7%

Pressure · 2–0

36.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+3.3pp32.8%

63.9%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+3.9pp60.0%

Points · 1–0

50.5%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp49.5%